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Is the stock market over heating?
Comments
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I love Adam Hamilton http://www.zealllc.com/2013/spxtopex.htm
He sums this market up far better than I could.
Maybe, but 90% of what he says is completely wrong.
Pretty much no-one is thinking the way that he claims they are thinking, so his predictions of the future are based on a misunderstanding of the present. Even those with a better grasp of current reality don't have a clear view of the future no matter what they claim.
Yes, there will be wobbles going forwards, perhaps even large ones, so you must position your portfolio accordingly. Rebalance back to your target allocations, and perhaps even favour those areas that haven't done so well lately. Maybe put a little more into EM and resources? Perhaps get a bit more exposure to commercial property and private equity? Whatever works for you, but don't overdo it.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Funny thing is it hasnt risen for 4 years, thats a rubbish bull market. Sterling fell a bit, dollar fell also and stocks compensated for that some but its not a wild rise out of proportion.
None of it is driven by private investors definitely because UK savings are low
Also people still think FTSE means Britain when its in the majority reliant on business elsewhere
World GDP is rising this year and previous years. We really are in trouble if there was global population growth and with lower production, resources and capital but this is not the case.very much in a recession, part of a global economy going no where soon
If we are talking globally, take world currency and measure FTSE 4 years ago and now and has that risen.
So take Qatar, their money buying FTSE which they do. Or Dubai, Singapore, China has FTSE risen in cost to them. They are driving any long term buying and ownership
I'll check XE.com later
I know in gold ftse didnt rise even when gold fell so much recently.
That should make it obvious ftse isnt churning out vast riches making anyone rich.
It lost so much we'll be lucky to get value back by decade end0 -
I love Adam Hamilton http://www.zealllc.com/2013/spxtopex.htm
He sums this market up far better than I could. Read this if you are thinking of going into the market now. He has the greed sentiment spot on. There is just so much bullishness about that when the selling starts it is going to be nasty.
That was hard work but makes a lot of sense. Never twigged before that if everyone who is going to buy has bought, then all that is left are sellers and stock prices will go down, and this doesn't need to be triggered by any kind of news.
Not sure I'll be doing anything different because of it though.0 -
Lets face it property in the UK is still very much more ina. Bubble than equities, but everyone is still predicting and expecting rises in that market.
It is obvious that the gov'ment will do everything it can bar 20% inflation to keep that bubble from collapsing, since they remember John Major and negative equity. Whether it is the right way to have a lost decade a la Japan, or to have a crash and recovery within a few lean years, only history will tell us in the future. We are in uncharted waters with all this QE.
The irony is first timers can't afford with 20% deposits so it may all be self defeating once the gov'ment backed mortgages start defaulting.0 -
Never twigged before that if everyone who is going to buy has bought
Nah thats wrong also. If there is absolutely no investors and the world are paupers then there are still stock buyers.
Why because corporations are people my friend in the words of Mitt Romney. Ok maybe thats stupid thing to say but companies can and will do stock buy backs
They do it because a hell of alot of stocks are still dirt cheap.
People who own dividend paying stocks also can do the same. All we really need for a sell off is lower company earnings, no profits and no cash but last I heard USA companies are holding 1 trillion in cash
So long as buying and paying back monthly is cheaper then renting they'll not be a great reason for much defaulting.The irony is first timers can't afford with 20% deposits so it may all be self defeating once the gov'ment backed mortgages start defaulting.
Ironically gov backing is better investment then they make most of the time. Its the people who lose money not gov on a default. Gov along with the bank takes the house value, the person loses everything first which is a fine incentive if nothing else
You can compare this whole thread to London housing prices. Is it a bubble, are they over priced. Maybe if you are a uk earner but prices are subject to global money which means nope to every suggestion, its just a price derived from cheap uk money and stronger growing global influence0 -
It's all well and good predicting a crash but why and more importantly where would you put your money?
Very good point bigadaj that is causing me headaches. In the last year we have spent £35000 on house improvements, £8000 on a trip of a life time (bought forward a few years), and are using Lloyds bank to get a bit of interest.
But equally we are loading my wife's SIPP (so buying equits) as she will have 8 years with no income soon and we want to use her tax allowance.
Even I'm looking at gold :eek:I believe past performance is a good guide to future performance :beer:0 -
"A pattern of unpredictable debt crises followed by predictable bailouts has left investors feeling emboldened. Investors are becoming impervious to the notion of losses and complacency is hiding in plain sight." - Sebastian Lyon (Troy, Personal Assets) quoted by H-L."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0
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Bank Holiday next weekend. Those who believe in "sell in May and go away" will be selling this week. They don't want to fly off to their villas worrying about June 2011."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0
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"A pattern of unpredictable debt crises followed by predictable bailouts has left investors feeling emboldened. Investors are becoming impervious to the notion of losses and complacency is hiding in plain sight." - Sebastian Lyon (Troy, Personal Assets) quoted by H-L.
Sounds like generic twaddle to me, and says nothing about market direction.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
Sounds like generic twaddle to me, and says nothing about market direction.
John I think he is saying that there will be a correction and when it comes many will be surprised. And if you look at his portfolio he is positioned for such an event.
But equally that is his remit so he could hardly say much else
Someone here described Sebastian's objective as wealth maintenance (or something similar). And if you look at the last crash you can see that he is good at it.
But I'm still leaving 35% of my portfolio with him
I believe past performance is a good guide to future performance :beer:0
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