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gadgetmind wrote: »PIN and Aberdeen
Over the last year PIN share price is up 36.6% and the discount has about halved http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Performance?s=PIN:LSE
Not what I would have considered 'unloved', but I am probably too picky - I have certainly held too much cash over the last year.
Which Aberdeen did you have in mind?“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
An argument for just staying in the markets:
http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jones-idiot-maker-rally-2013-3?op=1
(found this link in the monevator comments section)
Interesting link thanks.
The only thing those commentators seem to have missed is the money printing. Without the money printing I think they would have been right, certainly share prices wouldn't have risen so much,if at all.
So how much can we blame them for failing to predict the scale of money printing?
In opposition, Osborne was saying money printing is the last resort of desperate Governments, we will look after savers etc. Not everyone could be expected to know he would do exactly the opposite of what he was telling Gordon Brown to do.“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »The time when people really stampede is when there is already a huge amount of doom and gloom and the odd black swan drifts into view. At times like these, those stampeding out drop diamonds in their haste, which is when you can pick up some real bargains.
Like some private equity funds at 90% discount to NAV in 2008/9. Fill your boots while you can!Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.0 -
It is actually easier for retail investors to get out quickly. You can offload small volumes of shares for a reasonable value in dropping markets. Massive volumes? Forget it, even in a stable market.
Easy for the big investors too.
Like when someone, dumped 3,000 Gold Future Contracts (30,000 ounces of Gold) into the market at 1205 EST on the 12th April this year causing a selling frenzy of some 6,000,000 ounces.
Talk about market manipulation0 -
And to balance things off, which sectors tend to do best in a downturn? Or is it more that you have both cautious and adventurous funds in each sector?0
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And to balance things off, which sectors tend to do best in a downturn? Or is it more that you have both cautious and adventurous funds in each sector?
Is that before, during, or after the downturn?
If you think in terms of allocating the main asset classes, then it kind of sorts itself out.
Sometimes people look down the wrong end of the telescope. Equities are down, so they sell down and move into cash, usually - emotional, rather than logical, but people do it in droves, hence the extreme volatility.
However, if you have a simple allocation of say 60% equities, 40% bonds, then when equities fall you will rebalance and buy more.
That's pretty much where my head is - I have c. 60% equities now, but if the markets fall I will maintain that. (the other 40% is roughly divided into hedge/AR, and bond funds)"Things are never so bad they can't be made worse" - Humphrey Bogart0 -
Some share sectors are known as "defensive". These are industries that people have to use in good times and bad. Examples include the utilities, the major supermarkets, basic shopping needs - eg Unilever and the other major food and provision manufacturers. Many such companies pay good steady dividends.
Normally bonds based on national or major company debt do well in a downturn as they provide a guaranteed income and so may be more desirable to investors than shares when stock market prices are falling. However at the moment such bonds are already at a high price.
Whether a fund is adventurous or not depends more on the sector it invests in than the specific fund. One would choose an adventurous sector if one believed in its long term potential, the choice of fund is a relatively minor decision. So Emerging Markets or Small Companies are considered adventurous no matter which fund you use.0 -
And to balance things off, which sectors tend to do best in a downturn? Or is it more that you have both cautious and adventurous funds in each sector?
Bonds, defensives, and (if you're patient) gold.
Of course, downturns can only really be spotted in the rear view mirror, so a balanced portfolio is best for those without a crystal ball.
My annual rebalancing following adding fresh ISA cash means that I'm now adding to fixed interest, cyclicals (esp construction), resources, and property while selling certain other equities to keep things in kilter.
I'm doing roughly the same in my pensions, but these have cash added more gradually and only a couple of things are sufficiently under/over weight to worry about so I'll fix it over the summer.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
ompanies like Unilever and Rekitt make most of their profits from their brand names which enables them to sell average products at above average prices. (Levers Art Gallery at Port Sunlight is well worth a visit - William Lever collected pictures of beautiful women so he could use them to advertise his soap and sell it at a premium)
I thought that as people have to economise more would change to cheaper brands, and finding them just as good, would not go back to Unilever and Reckitt. But it doesn't seem to have happened much so far?“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »I'm now adding to fixed interest, cyclicals (esp construction), resources, and property
because you're underweight in crystal balls?
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