Crash Bang Wallop

grey_gym_sock

MoneySaverLog wrote: »

it will just now be a matter of time.

absolutely. the only question is: before what?

marathonic

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

absolutely. the only question is: before what?

Yeah, it's impossible to know.

I know plenty of people sitting on the sidelines, holding cash in preparation for the almighty crash they've been expecting this past year. I am keeping a close eye but suspect I'll just continue with monthly drip-feeding into my pension as normal and will start a S&S ISA as soon as my recent house purchase is in-order.

With all this extra money that has been printed, it's not entirely outside the realms of possibility that current stockmarket levels will be seen as low in 5 years time. Obviously, a lot of money has ended up in the market as it has nowhere else to go.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the market continue higher, with it's normal 5-10% pullbacks along the way, whilst inflation everywhere else results in the markets, at current levels, looking very cheap indeed.

gadgetmind

merlingrey wrote: »

You can have dips of maybe 5-10% and rebounds and so on but you cannot have a proper systemic market drop like 2008 that would mean the whole thing is kaput.

All of this could happen, and more. This is why you need a long-term view and a balanced portfolio.

I bought some shares in 2009 that have gone up 20x in value since then, and many in 2010 to 2011 that have doubled in value. Much of this was money rolling out of gilts and into equities. Now this rolling into resource companies and property. Onwards it goes.

There is always something frothy and always something unloved. Sell down the former and channel money into the latter. Do it mechanically with your emotions in check.

atush

the press always:

forget dividends

forget about regualr inmvestment

and forget there are other markets beyond the ftse

they forget these things because they mean I made money in the last 13 years, and they want to make out everyone lost

jabba42

Dr Doom, Marc Faber thinks if the FED stops QE the !!! could fall out of the market in the last quarter of this year, 20% down potentially. On the bright side he expected the same to happen in March this year by 10%. The higher it goes the harder it falls.

gadgetmind

Some markets have a slightly over-bought feel to them, but yields and p/e ratios don't suggest it is anything other than slight. Yes, some *seriously* bad news could knock prices down a bit (which I would welcome) but there is no way to predict when, how long, and how long before they bounce back.

Given all these issues, maintaining a balanced portfolio is far more likely to give better long-term results than trying to attempt market timing by darting in and out of cash.

Glen_Clark

marathonic wrote: »

With all this extra money that has been printed, it's not entirely outside the realms of possibility that current stockmarket levels will be seen as low in 5 years time. Obviously, a lot of money has ended up in the market as it has nowhere else to go.

Has been printed - yes
So doesn't the continuing rise depend on whether they continue to print?
... or start to unwind QE as they said they would?

redbuzzard

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Has been printed - yes
So doesn't the continuing rise depend on whether they continue to print?
... or start to unwind QE as they said they would?

If you were cynical you'd say that current policy is as much about winning the election as fixing the problem. The deficit reduction programme has been all but abandoned in the name of stimulating the economy, as illustrated by the barmy support for house buyers which incidentally won't help them at all - it will just push the prices up to equilibrium and stack up contingent losses for the exchequer at the same time.

The implication of current policy direction is that the stoking will continue until the election, following which, whoever is in charge will have another go at balancing the books by hook (financial probity and proper austerity, of which we have had none yet) or by crook (continued inflationary actions).

Depending what happens in the rest of the world it doesn't seem unfeasible that markets will stay high, or go higher, until 2015.

Though I wouldn't be so hubristic as to predict it.

Glen_Clark

gadgetmind wrote: »

Commercial property and private equity are still fairly cheap and unloved, particularly if you buy in areas that are also out of favour, and via ITs that are on discounts.

What did you have in mind?
I recently sold my Graphite to use my CGT allowance, and was looking at buying back in, but share price seems to have outpaced NAV;
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=gpe:LSE

I would buy F&C Property Trust if it wasn't on a 10% premium http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=fcpt:LSE
(I think they have recently made a good sale of a central london property to someone who wanted it enough to pay over market value, but don't know whether they own any more like that)

Glastoun

h1skswebstudios wrote: »

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This is such a delightfully brazen and obtuse example of spamming that I almost hope it doesn't get removed.