First Time Buyers - Enough is Enough!

Robin_Hood_7

The volume of house sales in the first three months of 2005 was down 34.8% against the same period in 2004.

Annual price growth continued to ease, with prices up 10.3% on the same period in 2004, compared with annual growth of 11.8% seen in the previous quarter.

Recent surveys from mortgage lenders have hinted that the market is cooling.

Standoff

Economic forecast group Capital Economics recently said that the UK housing market was at an "impasse", with buyers no longer willing, or able, to meet asking prices and sellers reluctant to lower them.

The Land Registry survey found that the number of sales in England and Wales fell to 159,116 between January and March, down from 243,914 for the same period in 2004.

Unless people price properties realistically they're not going to sell them

John Wriglesworth, Hometrack

The survey also found a decline in the number of properties being sold for more than £1m, dropping to 655 from 795 in 2004.

"We've seen since July/August last year the beginnings of a slowdown in take-up," John Morgan, managing director of Morgan's Estate Agents in Leeds, told the BBC.

"I think certainly we'll start to see a much more modest approach on the part of agents and vendors in terms of what they're going to have to do to get moving again," he said.

John Wriglesworth, housing economist at Hometrack, said one of the reasons for the sales slowdown was that sellers were refusing to drop their asking prices to "more realistic and sellable" levels.

"Unless people price properties realistically they're not going to sell them," he said.

The Land Registry said the average house price in England and Wales was £183,486 in the January to March period, up from £166,404 in 2004, with all regions of England and Wales recording an increase in prices.

i take it everybody has read this....?

kinesin_2

Another report over on the BBC about the stuggle FTBs face, even with the market cooling.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4536745.stm

Robin_Hood_7

yes , that`s all well and good i agree, but if you was to ask 100 couples selling there homes now day`s, how many would even accept a lower price.... not many, because now the house prices have rocketed to silly level`s, they all beleive they dont need to lower there price... just wait for a bit then another higher offer will come in.... if i was to go for a house with my g/f and even after the deposit we have saved, and say the house cost £180000... how many home owners would lower to say £170000-175000... not many... stailmate springs to mind....
i have now decided though to offer £10000 off any asking price... and if they dont accept then i will just have to wait a bit longer for (1) the home owner changes there mind relucantly or (2) look else where....

ciano125

Thats the best way to do it in my opinion, however, i would not be offering any more than 90% of the asking price. Estate agents always stick a few grand onto their "valuations" anyway coz they think they can get away with it.

At the end of the day, the seller needs you more than you need them, there are plenty more houses and not as many buyers, so, put your offer in, dont increase it, then walk away if they wont accept, let them come back to you when they cant sell it, then try offering less again haha!!

deemy2004

Robin_Hood wrote:

yes , that`s all well and good i agree, but if you was to ask 100 couples selling there homes now day`s, how many would even accept a lower price.... not many, because now the house prices have rocketed to silly level`s, they all beleive they dont need to lower there price... just wait for a bit then another higher offer will come in.... if i was to go for a house with my g/f and even after the deposit we have saved, and say the house cost £180000... how many home owners would lower to say £170000-175000... not many... stailmate springs to mind....
i have now decided though to offer £10000 off any asking price... and if they dont accept then i will just have to wait a bit longer for (1) the home owner changes there mind relucantly or (2) look else where....

This stalemate with the sellers not dropping their prices is slowly soaking up what few remaining ftb's there were who are going in at the asking...

When they are gone or far fewer then what happens ?

With each passing month the ground is shifting under the sellers and I'm not on about subsidence

Lemoncurd

If so many buyers are going in at asking price how come the average sale price as a percentage of asking price is currently around 93%? are there also a lot of buyers out there getting houses for way under the asking price???

deemy2004

Not so many but rather they are beign soaked up as the house sales are slumping as the sellers arn't dropping prices....

Hence as the pool dries up, what happens when sales volume drops more than 50% of the peak ?

Usually panic hits and there be's a sharp correction in a short space of time, thats the direction the housign market is heading in. I.e. it does nto matter too much that the prices arn't moving much now as the pressure builds.

Okay from a Technical Trading point of view - the martket is distributing along the highs, where the sellers by refusing to cut prices, are acting like buyers supporting the market at current prices, where the few REAL buyers are diminishing with each passing month... Now there will come a time when the psyche of the sellers changes from greed to fear and it will no longer be the mentality of supporting buying prices but ensuring sales ASAP...

When this happens the price or housing indexes will move quite sharply over a short space of time, maybe as much at 8% over one quarter, as obviously the pool of REAL buyers is very,very small as much of the support in preceding months had been through the sellers not willing to drop prices... I can't say what will follow that sharp break lower until it happens....

Ive seen similar events a gazzillion times on various time frames in the financial markets

In another analogy its a bit like poker players that keep calling on a losing hand instead of folding early in the hand and then wishing they had folded pre-flop.

Spendless

I have posted previously about the MTH I sold last year for £40,000 going back up for sale a few weeks ago at £62,000.

Yesterday I drove down the street, it has been sold. There were 2 more MTH up for sale, these also have been sold.

In the meantime someone I know in the next village is struggling to sell her 3 bed semi for around £135,000 there are 2 more in her street up for sale also.

eurows

Hi

I have seen a definate cooling and lowering of prices. And would like too pose the following question. Although people in general ie those who own their own homes, estate agents and banks etc are constantly telling us that prices won't collapse I cannot help but notice that prices in my region are dropping, on top of this people are offering less and then ftb are under gazumping.

Why are these people blind to these facts. They are confincing themselfs as they did in the 80's that prices won't fall just stagnate and then increase again. People think good times go on forever but they never do.

I have just checked on rightmoves new house checker facility where you can see the selling price of houses. A three bed terrace in Savile Close Brighouse went for £213,000 at the end of last year. A house next door, all the houses are the same, is now on the market for £190,000 and still can't sell.

I am tempted as I am looking for a house to0 offer 10k less and then undergazump just before the sale and offer another 5k less. But I think why should I. I can sit this thing out and wait for the prices to fall further, which they inevitably will and then do the same.

The time of the ftb is nearing and I for one won't lose any sleep over being underhand when the time to buy nears.

These greedy sellers have had things there way for far too long.

meanmachine_2

I agree that sellers have had it good for far too long, but I'd draw the line at gazundering. I just wouldn't do it.

Once property has fallen to a realistic level, then I'll consider buying, driving a hard bargain, offering no more than 90% of the asking price, say, but being open and honest in my dealings.

If you gazunder then all you're doing is creating misery for the entire chain. Bad karma man.