Where are your savings and/or investments going?

StevieJ

meljm2 wrote: »

Yes, but this year its different.

Just look at mortgage approvals for January. It was the snow? Yeah. Right

There was a really clever expert from Capital Economics in the Times today saying that the bubble is going to bust any time now.

Now we know you are taking the P

chucknorris

wotsthat wrote: »

Chuck, as I understand it you've already retired once and work as a hobby/ challenge, you are comfortably off and have the security of a future income from your BTL portfolio.

Why not spend more rather than invest more (second home/ holidays/ dog charities)?

Can't take it with you.

What you say makes sense and we are spending more but it is also my second nature to ensure what I/we have is invested well. I have fixed rate savings bonds maturing every now and again but the current rates are so awful, I just can't force myself to put it the cash into another bond where the net gain is less than inflation.

grizzly1911

Harry_Boyle wrote: »

When did you cash in your equities? Were they in funds?

Just wondering whether you cashed in because you felt there would be a correction in the market or because you were looking to move to new equity investments?

What is your feeling for the market. Hold/sell/purchase?

grizzly1911

chucknorris wrote: »

What you say makes sense and we are spending more but it is also my second nature to ensure what I/we have is invested well. I have fixed rate savings bonds maturing every now and again but the current rates are so awful, I just can't force myself to put it the cash into another bond where the net gain is less than inflation.

I know exactly how you feel.

IME funds have outperformed cash even if not remarkably so in all cases. I have restructured some and diversified to spread risk as well as taking some higher risk options, sweeping in some fixed cash bonds that have now matured. Currently deciding whether to transfer a Santander cash ISA that I have. The only rate they are offering to 123 account holders is 2.5% fixed/2years. I know I lose the cash element for good but eh oh.

I do wonder if those that take the risk will ever migrate back to cash.

Have an elderly relative who has a portfolio spread across low risk funds and bonds who takes around 4% pa and the funds still match inflation or there abouts.

chucknorris

meljm2 wrote: »

That is not very nice.

Capital Economics and Money Week were the only ones who predicted the last crash in 2007.

They will be right again

I think that you will find that capital economics predicted the crash for a few years before 2007, but then in 2007 changed and predicted that property would rise! (at least that is what I was lead to believe from previous posts). They used to be the standing joke of this forum board.

EDIT: ses link:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/30372671#Comment_30372671

By Hamish:
One more time with the Capital Economics house price forecast history.....

The evidence says they have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 9 months)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.

So if they are predicting a 10% fall, it's safe to say prices will be rising.

DervProf

Harry_Boyle wrote: »

When did you cash in your equities? Were they in funds?

Just wondering whether you cashed in because you felt there would be a correction in the market or because you were looking to move to new equity investments?

In January.

Yes, they were in funds.

I decided to lock in the gains that I had made. I have since widened my monthly fund investments into several other funds.

chucknorris

DervProf wrote: »

In January.

Yes, they were in funds.

I decided to lock in the gains that I had made. I have since widened my monthly fund investments into several other funds.

When savings rates started getting lower I was buying into a (very) low fee ftse tracker and cashing in when I made about 3-5%, Typically buying between 5,000 and 5,500 and selling when it made up to 5%. I was able to do this a few times, but now I also wish that I had also invested something to leave in for the long run as well.

grizzly1911

chucknorris wrote: »

When savings rates started getting lower I was buying into a (very) low fee ftse tracker and cashing in when I made about 3-5%, Typically buying between 5,000 and 5,500 and selling when it made up to 5%. I was able to do this a few times, but now I also wish that I had also invested to leave in for the long run as well.

If you don't need it (or it's not noticeably tanking) the experts suggest leaving it alone and don't micro manage. You have as much chance picking a bad time to do that as a good time.

Patience and let it roll up with income reinvested automatically or through accumulation units.

If you have a portfolio of funds periodic rebalancing may be needed. High risk to stable etc.

chucknorris

grizzly1911 wrote: »

If you don't need it (or it's not noticeably tanking) the experts suggest leaving it alone and don't micro manage. You have as much chance picking a bad time to do that as a good time.

Patience and let it roll up with income reinvested automatically or through accumulation units.

If you have a portfolio of funds periodic rebalancing may be needed. High risk to stable etc.

I was only trying to make more than the savings rates though, which I did ( made about 12% tax free in the year that I did it), so that was purely about getting a higher return to savings rates. Only talking about small amounts here (about 25k) But what I didn't do, which I should have was also invested much more long term to balance my portfolio as an independant activity and focused on the shares, rather than merely competing to get a better savings rate.

grizzly1911

chucknorris wrote: »

I was only trying to make more than the savings rates though, which I did ( made about 12% tax free in the year that I did it), so that was purely about getting a higher return to savings rates. Only talking about small amounts here (about 25k) But what I didn't do, which I should have was also invested much more long term to balance my portfolio as an independant activity and focused on the shares, rather than merely competing to get a better savings rate.

I have a core investment fund portfolio which is "long term"and a secondary smaller pot a bit more than your current one which I am going to "play with" for the next year or two. Depending on events I intend to take out/allocate an "income based" on the savings rates attained over the recent past and see what happens to the rest.