Poll: More people want to stay in EU than leave

CLAPTON

Many take the view that UK benefits economically from being in the EU.

Let's ask why.

Given the context that trade barriers have reduced all over the world, the situation since we first joined has changed enormously.


So

1. Is being a member of any trading group a economically beneficial thing?

If so why and will any group do?

If only some groups are good what specific features of a group should we look for.

Why is the EU good?

2. Is membership good for all members of the group?

Looking at Greece, Ireland, Portugal Spain, it is not immediately obvious that they have overall benefited.

If all do not benefit, then why do we think we are net beneficaries?
What's special about the UK that we think we will overall be net gainers?

3. Do countries that are part of a group have greater influence in the world?

Do the councils of the world take significant notice of (say) Texas' view on economic affairs because they are part of the USA?

If the EU presents a view (on say) a transaction tax on financial services, will the contrary UK view hold more weight or less weight?

4. As part of the group each country has to go along with the majority.
So the EU has trashed the North Sea fishing. Has this been an overall benefit to the whole of the EU?
Has it been in the UK's benefit?

The EU pays lots of money to West African dicators so EU fishing can trash the traditional fishing areas off W. African coast.
Is that a good thing?
EU rushed into 'green energy' with bio mass which is widely seen as causing additional global waming and excelerating the destruction of the rain forests. Would the response have been more measured if each individual state made their own decision?


How much has the EU contributed to the enourmous food waste created by the EU rules on things like 'straight bananas'?
Was that actually a benefit to the EU; was it a benefit to the UK; was it a benefit to the world's ecology?


and I'm sure there are many more general questions we can ask.

vivatifosi

As I mentioned, the issue I have with leaving the EU is the number of foreign parented companies that may not choose to stay here. Clearly some will maintain full presence here, but others, including those I've worked for, would seek to reduce their presence if it was no longer beneficial in trade terms.

Between FY05/06 and FY11/12, a little over 557,000 jobs were created as the result of inward investment.
(source: http://www.ukti.gov.uk/investintheuk/investintheukhome/item/344900.html and click on statistics download)

I haven't managed to get a corresponding statistic for homegrown employment growth, however per this article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-job-creation-the-numbers-dont-add-up-8211004.html
employment between June 2010-June 2012 rose by 1,070,000. Now direct number comparison not straightforward, but in rough, back of a cigarette packet terms, that compares to 207,000 jobs from foreign parented companies over the same period, a bit over 19%.

If I had the time and inclination, I'd try to get some better numbers and put up a more direct comparison, but the loss of existing jobs from FDI, as well as the future opportunity (great news for Ireland though I suppose, perhaps I should buy a cheap house there), continues to worry me.

Going4TheDream

I thought this was interesting

http://www.brugesgroup.com/EFTAorTheEU.pdf

Or as a quick visual side by side

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20448450

CLAPTON

vivatifosi wrote: »

As I mentioned, the issue I have with leaving the EU is the number of foreign parented companies that may not choose to stay here. Clearly some will maintain full presence here, but others, including those I've worked for, would seek to reduce their presence if it was no longer beneficial in trade terms.

Between FY05/06 and FY11/12, a little over 557,000 jobs were created as the result of inward investment.
(source: http://www.ukti.gov.uk/investintheuk/investintheukhome/item/344900.html and click on statistics download)

I haven't managed to get a corresponding statistic for homegrown employment growth, however per this article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-job-creation-the-numbers-dont-add-up-8211004.html
employment between June 2010-June 2012 rose by 1,070,000. Now direct number comparison not straightforward, but in rough, back of a cigarette packet terms, that compares to 207,000 jobs from foreign parented companies over the same period, a bit over 19%.

If I had the time and inclination, I'd try to get some better numbers and put up a more direct comparison, but the loss of existing jobs from FDI, as well as the future opportunity (great news for Ireland though I suppose, perhaps I should buy a cheap house there), continues to worry me.

A good point, but it's difficult to say what would have happened if we weren't in the EU.

Has inward investment in the electricity industry, gas, water steel, chocolate, food processing etc actually been to the UK's advantage?
Would home grown investment have been higher?
If Uk companies could compete on equal terms tax wise with many foreign firms would the UK be better off?

Sadly one can't possibly trust government figures.

Graham_Devon

vivatifosi wrote: »

As I mentioned, the issue I have with leaving the EU is the number of foreign parented companies that may not choose to stay here. Clearly some will maintain full presence here, but others, including those I've worked for, would seek to reduce their presence if it was no longer beneficial in trade terms.

Between FY05/06 and FY11/12, a little over 557,000 jobs were created as the result of inward investment.
(source: http://www.ukti.gov.uk/investintheuk/investintheukhome/item/344900.html and click on statistics download)

I haven't managed to get a corresponding statistic for homegrown employment growth, however per this article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-job-creation-the-numbers-dont-add-up-8211004.html
employment between June 2010-June 2012 rose by 1,070,000. Now direct number comparison not straightforward, but in rough, back of a cigarette packet terms, that compares to 207,000 jobs from foreign parented companies over the same period, a bit over 19%.

If I had the time and inclination, I'd try to get some better numbers and put up a more direct comparison, but the loss of existing jobs from FDI, as well as the future opportunity (great news for Ireland though I suppose, perhaps I should buy a cheap house there), continues to worry me.

Thing here is, how many jobs would be created if we were out of the EU? There would surely be job creation, as we do more of our own thing?

This is the problem I have at the moment, we can quantify what the EU has given us. We can't however, easily quantify what would have been without it. Also, seems no one can do so. I'm sure we'd have quite a few jobs created in the fishing industry though, and that's just one example. What about the domestic energy industry? Think there would be some gains there.

What could we tap into if it weren't for EU restrictions? I dunno. I have heard we may well be singled out as a "stepping stone" in Europe for companies if we were outside the EU, but close enough to it and trading with it. I can't quantify what this means though.

vivatifosi

In a previous job I monitored inward investment reports over a period of about 15-16 years and met with some of the agencies involved (there were a lot of them back then, though many have since been wound up). At the time I was working for an American company that worked with many of the US companies moving to the UK, which is why we were doing the monitoring. This was a while ago now, but a large number of the companies moving to the UK were from the US, far more than from any other country. Further, many of them were sold the benefits of access to the EU from an English speaking market.

As I don't work there anymore, I no longer have access to data to quote from, so people will have to choose whether or not they take my word for this. However I saw it as a significant enough trend to be worried. Of course, I'm not in a position to exactly quantify, but I am concerned.

ruggedtoast

A statistic that I heard at a conference the other day was that EU membership costs £15 per person but brings in £1500 - £2000 per person.

This wont stop a legion of xenophobic muppets voting 'out' in Cameron's referendum of course, even if you could convince them it was true.

Graham_Devon

ruggedtoast wrote: »

A statistic that I heard at a conference the other day was that EU membership costs £15 per person but brings in £1500 - £2000 per person.

Well that's impossible.

The EU has just cost women drivers a packet. Prices didn't align, they just moved up to align themselves with the prices men paid.

Insurance companies have been open enough about it, stating they are charging the higher price, but they need to to cover their "uninsured driver and legal costs".

Wookster

vivatifosi wrote: »

In a previous job I monitored inward investment reports over a period of about 15-16 years and met with some of the agencies involved (there were a lot of them back then, though many have since been wound up). At the time I was working for an American company that worked with many of the US companies moving to the UK, which is why we were doing the monitoring. This was a while ago now, but a large number of the companies moving to the UK were from the US, far more than from any other country. Further, many of them were sold the benefits of access to the EU from an English speaking market.

As I don't work there anymore, I no longer have access to data to quote from, so people will have to choose whether or not they take my word for this. However I saw it as a significant enough trend to be worried. Of course, I'm not in a position to exactly quantify, but I am concerned.

I really think its swings and roundabouts.

Yes the UK being in the EU has advantages for larger (multinational businesses) but they tend to create less jobs than smaller businesses, which are more hamstrung by EU regulations. Big business has more resources, and can therefore handle regulations and bureaucracy. The UK has the enormous advantage of a relatively skilled and flexible workforce & legislative framework, coupled with a low (and seemingly voluntary?) tax regime, added to which it is natively English speaking and a timezone that enables overlap between Europe and North America.

ruggedtoast wrote: »

A statistic that I heard at a conference the other day was that EU membership costs £15 per person but brings in £1500 - £2000 per person.

That sounds dubiously like a ponzi scheme

vivatifosi

Wookster wrote: »

I really think its swings and roundabouts.

Yes the UK being in the EU has advantages for larger (multinational businesses) but they tend to create less jobs than smaller businesses, which are more hamstrung by EU regulations. Big business has more resources, and can therefore handle regulations and bureaucracy. The UK has the enormous advantage of a relatively skilled and flexible workforce & legislative framework, coupled with a low (and seemingly voluntary?) tax regime, added to which it is natively English speaking and a timezone that enables overlap between Europe and North America.

I've got some more stats now. I heard on Sky News this morning that there are 3m people in the UK employed in overseas corporations. Clearly 3m jobs will not be lost if the UK leaves the EU, but some will - the question is how many? The anti-EU Bruges group feels that by leaving the EU, 1m jobs will be created in SMEs, freed from the shackles of business law. So the issue I guess is whether the Bruges group is correct, and if so, whether fewer than 1m jobs would be lost.

There are some high-visibility jobs that could be lost, not least Airbus could decide to move its UK production to the EU. Car plants in the UK may also decide not to tool for future production runs.

I guess all bets are off until we see what - if anything - Cameron et al are able to negotiate.