Poll: More people want to stay in EU than leave

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

More people now want to STAY in Europe than leave says shock poll

Number of people who want to stay in EU overtakes those in favour of exit for first time since David Cameron became PM

YouGov survey shows 40% want to remain against 34% who want to leave.

It suggests the widespread public debate has focused the minds of voters on the merits of remaining in the EU

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2265867/More-people-want-STAY-Europe-leave-says-shock-poll-PM-reveals-big-EU-speech-Wednesday.html#ixzz2Iee2iFH3

Oh look, and it's even from the usual suspects favourite source.

A._Badger

Ah, yes, the YouGov Poll.

That's the online pollster with the self-selecting membership, run by the fanatical Europhile Peter Kellner, whose wife is the unelected (in fact never elected for any post) EU bigwig 'Baroness' Ashton.

Good to see you're maintaining your usual ditchwater standards, Hamish.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A._Badger wrote: »

Ah, yes, the YouGov Poll.
.

:rotfl:

It's been plenty good enough for all the anti-EU mob for the last few years when it showed a different result.

A._Badger

Not for me it hasn't. I get their polls. If they told me it was Wednesday I'd rush to the calendar. I've seen how they phrase their questions.

tesuhoha

We just need to get to the general election to find out how many people wanted to stay in the EU.

vivatifosi

Again, this is a more complicated issue than the headlines suggest. Here's a link to the YouGov poll data:
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1ix1a52xzw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-18-200113.pdf

There are a number of questions. Essentially people are asked whether or not they are willing to stay in the EU if David Cameron is able to renegotiate Britain's commitments, this is where the majority comes in. In the event that this does not happen, there is a further question, if there was a referendum, how would you vote. Here the leave vote is a fraction larger than the stay vote (42% vs 38%). 58% say that it is important to have a proper debate on Britain's relationship with the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

There are a number of questions. Essentially people are asked whether or not they are willing to stay in the EU if David Cameron is able to renegotiate Britain's commitments, this is where the majority comes in. .

Not the way it's put in the poll....

A straight yes or no question, without any precondition of Cameron renegotiating.

If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, how would you vote?

I would vote for Britain to remain a member of the European Union-40

I would vote for Britain to leave the European Union-34

There is then a second question regarding a referendum AFTER Cameron renegotiating, which has different results.

Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain's interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms.

How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?

Would vote for Britain to remain in the European Union on the new terms - 50

Would vote for Britain to leave the European Union - 25

Graham_Devon

Theres been 15 polls on this question since the start of 2012.

14 out of 15 had more people stating they would leave.

ONE poll has more people stating they would stay in the Euro.

The last poll was just a week ago, with 42% stating they would leave, and 36% stating stay.

This has seen the need for a new thread, with not a lot of context!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

It suggests the widespread public debate has focused the minds of voters on the merits of remaining in the EU

There's your context.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not the way it's put in the poll....

A straight yes or no question, without any precondition of Cameron renegotiating.

If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, how would you vote?

I would vote for Britain to remain a member of the European Union-40

I would vote for Britain to leave the European Union-34

There is then a second question regarding a referendum AFTER Cameron renegotiating, which has different results.

Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain's interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms.

How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?

Would vote for Britain to remain in the European Union on the new terms - 50

Would vote for Britain to leave the European Union - 25

The final result, post renegotiation, is very interesting as it shows IMHO that even if the Euroskeptics force DC's hand he can still get a positive outcome for both himself and the UK.

The UK's economic interests are definitely best served by remaining in the EU. A referendum might stop the noise about membership for a generation.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

The final result, post renegotiation, is very interesting as it shows IMHO that even if the Euroskeptics force DC's hand he can still get a positive outcome for both himself and the UK.

The UK's economic interests are definitely best served by remaining in the EU. A referendum might stop the noise about membership for a generation.

That Britain will remain in the EU is beyond doubt.

But looking at the significant lead Labour retains in that same poll, the chances of a referendum happening at all look very slim indeed.