investing in Japan

takesyourchances

moneylover wrote: »

I am happy in the slipstream too - have only been in Japan for three months but happy with profit even if took the money out tomorrow
Would like some pointers on recognising that the breaklights are flickering - what will the warning signs be, other than watching my fund?

Is this not timing the market?

If there is a dip or low period, is this not an opportune time to be buying some equity for lower costs if drip feeding the fund regular?

Personally I would like to hold my funds for the long term 10 years plus, I would be thinking for my timescale long term rather than timing the markets if it would dip, this to me is impossible to predict, it could rapidly rise back as quick after a fall, how are we to know.

I have only took my Japanese fund out to recently, personally I think that timing it after such a short period being in it is not giving it a chance, however that may work for you if that is what you want.

Japan etc I am thinking 10 years from now staying invested is my thinking towards my Aberdeen Japanese Small Cap fund and not timing the market but drip feeding through it.

Thanks.

Glastoun

takesyourchances wrote: »

Is this not timing the market?

If there is a dip or low period, is this not an opportune time to be buying some equity for lower costs if drip feeding the fund regular?

Personally I would like to hold my funds for the long term 10 years plus, I would be thinking for my timescale long term rather than timing the markets if it would dip, this to me is impossible to predict, it could rapidly rise back as quick after a fall, how are we to know.

I have only took my Japanese fund out to recently, personally I think that timing it after such a short period being in it is not giving it a chance, however that may work for you if that is what you want.

Japan etc I am thinking 10 years from now staying invested is my thinking towards my Aberdeen Japanese Small Cap fund and not timing the market but drip feeding through it.

Thanks.

There's room for a bit of everything. I've got some money in a global equities fund that I'm happy to leave for years without taking much notice, but also some money in a fund that has gone up 40% since January - I'd be an idiot to let that run without finding out a) why it's gone up so much, and b) whether it's likely to come down again. It could be an artificial inflated peak, or it could be the start of a run of success for Japan.

It's one thing to say 'it's time in the market that counts', but it's another to ignore big economic and political changes and just leave money in a stagnant fund when conditions are right for other funds to do well, especially when it could be moved within 24 hours with zero charge. If I had to pick a single fund for ten years it would only ever be some kind of broad tracker, as there's no way to know what's going to happen to specific sectors or areas over that length of time.

sabretoothtigger

Nikkei peaked at over 38.900 in 1989 and you wouldn't have done very well.

Taking the worst possible time to buy as an example makes it an easy argument.
There is the currency to consider on any foreign holdings which should even it up slightly. Taking part in their QE based bond market might have done the job also.
Someone who did similar in 2008 gained 130% from Japan in the worst market at the worst time, he broke from the herd which is rare even for a fund

takesyourchances

Glastoun wrote: »

There's room for a bit of everything. I've got some money in a global equities fund that I'm happy to leave for years without taking much notice, but also some money in a fund that has gone up 40% since January - I'd be an idiot to let that run without finding out a) why it's gone up so much, and b) whether it's likely to come down again. It could be an artificial inflated peak, or it could be the start of a run of success for Japan.

It's one thing to say 'it's time in the market that counts', but it's another to ignore big economic and political changes and just leave money in a stagnant fund when conditions are right for other funds to do well, especially when it could be moved within 24 hours with zero charge. If I had to pick a single fund for ten years it would only ever be some kind of broad tracker, as there's no way to know what's going to happen to specific sectors or areas over that length of time.

I understand what you are saying and also that Japan can go through changes which results in highs and lows. Also 40% increase is a lot from January, I can see why you would not want to lose that increase etc.

I guess it goes against the passive approach, but I know what you are saying so I am partly trying to understand as well as I have a newly opened fund in Japan so I am interested in peoples approaches.

I have other funds and a core Vanguard Life Strategy. The Japan fund would be running at around 10% or under overall.

I prefer to be passive, say in a case of Japan in your case your fund shot up 40% in a few months would there be a case then for say selling your increase in profits as a re-balance type approach and putting the profits into a more global based fund / and carrying on with the Japan drip feeds after say transferring gains like that?

I can see what your saying ok and understand that Japan has had its long time woes and could drop as quick as rise, I am wanting to see how Japan fits in the overall passive approach of a few funds and trackers in a portfolio.

Thanks.

barak

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Taking the worst possible time to buy as an example makes it an easy argument.
There is the currency to consider on any foreign holdings which should even it up slightly. Taking part in their QE based bond market might have done the job also.
Someone who did similar in 2008 gained 130% from Japan in the worst market at the worst time, he broke from the herd which is rare even for a fund

Not sure who that was - but OP asked "Does anyone have a fund in Japan that has been a steady Eddie?". I'm a great believer in active management, but it's been a bit of a challenge for anyone when an index performs like this over the last 30 years -

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225#symbol=^n225;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

sabretoothtigger

barak wrote: »

No this wasnt a steady eddy but he has gained since he set it up which like you say is fighting the tide.
I think he may be a Dr Doom type and thinks Japan gov will default. Artemis have said similar, inevitable failure hence no matter what you do not invest

takesyourchances

This is the fund I have invested in, for the Japanese Small Cap exposure.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/a/aberdeen-global-japanese-smaller-cos-d2-gbp-accumulation

It has looked steady in the past, I still think there is good value to be had in Japan and growth in small cap there.

Any thoughts?

Glastoun

takesyourchances wrote: »

This is the fund I have invested in, for the Japanese Small Cap exposure.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/a/aberdeen-global-japanese-smaller-cos-d2-gbp-accumulation

It has looked steady in the past, I still think there is good value to be had in Japan and growth in small cap there.

Any thoughts?

Your guess is as good as mine - and judging by how often analysts get it wrong, as good as theirs too.

The fund I picked was Legg Mason Japan Equity, which has been doing well (to clarify, I wasn't in at the beginning of that 40% rise though). But if it started dropping and other Japan funds kept on going up I wouldn't hesitate to switch. I'd also switch it out of Japan if there were more attractive options, but at the moment there doesn't seem to be.

This is the small 'play' part of my money though, it stops me from making stupid mistakes with the rest of it.

Glastoun

Another month on, and this article is the first I've seen that has given evidence that the waves may be picking up, even if the tide might not turn just yet:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100671872

Although the GBP/Yen has shot in one direction or another by ~10% since the end of March - I think it is in the Good Direction for foreign investors, but could someone who knows their way around exchange rates summarise who benefits from this change?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=JPY&view=1M