CML: FTB lending up 24% YoY

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

How did you round 21% up to 23%?

Easy, you round the data up first.

Don't you like what's been done?

the_flying_pig

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I was simply rounding numbers up and down to make the point.

But yer, you proved it!

Must have been an awful year, starting at 16% up and ending up 21% down! <ahem>

up and down like, uh, a YoYo, that stat [sorry, a lame attempt].

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Easy, you round the data up first.

Don't you like what's been done?

The problem isn't with the presentation of the data but your maths.

You rounded up the volume data and then rounded the answer????!

I'll leave you too it:o

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i just checked the site & get slightly different results:

Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011: +16% 'YoY [ahem]';
Feb: +13% YoY;
Mar: +31% YoY;
Apr: -15% YoY;
May: +7% YoY;
Jun: +3% YoY;
Jul: -6% YoY;
Aug: -1% YoY;
Sep: -21% 'YoY.

as good an illustration as any of the extremely narrow [i.e. non-existent] sense in which such numbers constitute 'YoY' by most definitions.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Works both ways though. Worth remembering.

Of course, you won't claim foul play, and you will acknowledge YOY lending is down 10% when the numbers work that way amd the same point is made.

Up until today, over what, 3-4 years on this forum, NO ONE has ever taken to describing it the way you ave today.

Oh by the way...

Sales volumes on the land registry are down 23% YOY using the most recent sales volume data, that being September 2012.

They were up 9% YOY in May 2012. Dreadful eh!

Excellent news.

Looks like sales volumes will end the year well up, and what with lending rising so strongly at the end of the year, the more recent figures will be even better.

Enjoy.

Oh, I'm certainly enjoying watching you two squirm around trying to deny such a big increase in lending.:)

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Better to take YoY data and plot it on a monthly basis so that trends can be identified.

Totally agree. I was merely citing an extreme example.

So back to the topic and trends. What I found interesting is that lending multiples continue to be tightened.

FTB's

November 2011 2.91
October 2012 2.90
November 2011 2.86

While % may be small. If applied to projected annual lending figure for 2012. Would mean around £700 million less available to borrow in 2013.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

FTB's

November 2011 2.91
October 2012 2.90
November 2011 2.86

You've quoted the home movers figures, NOT FTB-s.

And such a change is more likely down to the fact that first stepper homes are now rising in price more than second stepper homes, so price rises are narrowing the rungs and reducing the amount they need to borrow to move.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3401