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CML: FTB lending up 24% YoY
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3401A total of 21,700 loans were advanced to first-time buyers in November, worth £2.7 billion, representing an 8% rise compared to October and up by 24% on November last year.
For the second consecutive month, loans to first-time buyers accounted for 41% of all house purchase loans. This is rather higher than the usual proportion of around 38%
Very good news indeed.
Still a VERY long way to go of course, but a firm step in the right direction.
Also worth noting that house prices have risen last year on almost all of the major indices. So it's not falling prices that are helping more to buy.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Also worth noting that house prices have risen last year on almost all of the major indices. So it's not falling prices that are helping more to buy.
That and more Government subsidies for lending to counteract the OTT Basle III agreement (as was).
Definitely a big step in the right direction to re-establishing a functioning housing market.
Clearly it is no good to the UK's economy if one of the biggest single asset markets is dysfunctional.0 -
That and more Government subsidies for lending to counteract the OTT Basle III agreement (as was).
Definitely a big step in the right direction to re-establishing a functioning housing market.
Clearly it is no good to the UK's economy if one of the biggest single asset markets is dysfunctional.
Absolutely....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
more than a litlte misleading to say that lending's up 24% YoY.
you see, the amount of lending in a month is a 'flow' measure rather than a stock.
if the amount of rainfall in november 2012 was 24% higher than the amount of rainfall in november 2011, would i conclude that rain was up 24% YoY? or would i first look at what how much rain there'd been in the months of dec 2011 through oct 2012?FACT.0 -
Is this YOY or just a comparison against a select month in the previous year?
Genuinely confused here.
If lending falls by by 3,000 individuals compared to dec last year, will we claim lending has fallen say 20% YOY?0 -
the_flying_pig wrote: »more than a litlte misleading to say that lending's up 24% YoY.
you see, the amount of lending in a month is a 'flow' measure rather than a stock.
if the amount of rainfall in november 2012 was 24% higher than the amount of rainfall in november 2011, would i conclude that rain was up 24% YoY? or would i first look at what how much rain there'd been in the months of dec 2011 through oct 2012?
Yes but it's also valid to compare the rain in November 2012 with rain in November 2011. There's no point in comparing Nov 2012 rain with that in June 2012 as there are different factors in play.
We can also see that there is an apparent cause for this increased lending, being the Funding for Lending scheme.
It will be interesting to see how things progress as QE/nZIRP will have to be unwound in some way if credit markets return to the new old-fashioned normal to prevent inflation getting out of hand (not 5% RPI, I mean more like 15-20% RPI).0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Is this YOY or just a comparison against a select month in the previous year?
Genuinely confused here.
take a wild guess.FACT.0 -
the_flying_pig wrote: »take a wild guess.
Sorry didn't see your post above. I was checking and double checking before I took the plunge and hit post! Didn't want to be caught out!
Fairly misleading then....put on a line graph month by month this data would be all over the place.0 -
Yes but it's also valid to compare the rain in November 2012 with rain in November 2011. There's no point in comparing Nov 2012 rain with that in June 2012 as there are different factors in play.
We can also see that there is an apparent cause for this increased lending, being the Funding for Lending scheme.
It will be interesting to see how things progress as QE/nZIRP will have to be unwound in some way if credit markets return to the new old-fashioned normal to prevent inflation getting out of hand (not 5% RPI, I mean more like 15-20% RPI).
i completely agree that june vs nov comparisons are invalid, but, well, rain's not a perfect analogy because you'd be interested in it for different reasons...
stock vs. flow is a bit more subtle than this but what Hamish has done here is a bit like, say looking at Halifax house price data saying that Nov 11 was +1% & that Nov 12 was +2% & saying that HPI had doubled or something like that.
this is why CML didn't, of course, describe FTB lending as being up 24% YoY. this statement is all H's own work.FACT.0 -
the_flying_pig wrote: »this is why CML didn't, of course, describe FTB lending as being up 24% YoY. this statement is all H's own work.
The CML describe it as what it is.
"Change from".
Pretty sure if numbers fell even a couple of hundred, the same maths used in the opening post wouldn't be used. The average of the monthly fluctuations over the year would then be used 0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Is this YOY or just a comparison against a select month in the previous year?
Genuinely confused here.
If lending falls by by 3,000 individuals compared to dec last year, will we claim lending has fallen say 20% YOY?
This is what I would describe as YoY, comparing the total lending for the month of November in 2012 with the total lending for the month of November in 2011.
That is also the measure most analysts would call YoY (year on year). MoM (month on month) would compare October 2012 with November 2012.
So if the number of mortgages in Dec 2011 was 20,000 and in Dec 2012 it turns out to be 18,000 then the number of mortgages will have fallen by 2,000 or 10% YoY and almost 20% MoM.
It would be possible to compare the total number of mortgages from the year to November 2011 with the total number for the year to November 2012 but it wouldn't serve the purpose of the stats which is to give a snapshot of the direction the market is moving in as a very approximate guide to the future.
If you want to look at the value of the loans rather than the number of loans (a more valid metric IMHO) then that is up a mere 23% YoY.0
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