CML: FTB lending up 24% YoY

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Month on month is fine, but I'm struggling with your defintion of YOY, especially from an accounting perspective. It would be insane. You could have 11 months of dire accounts, down each and every month, and one good month where you've sold some property off as a one off, and claim profits are up 110% YOY.

Annual results and comparisons give a more meaningful measure.

If I was a grower and seller of Xmas trees. My accounts would look shocking for 10 months of the year.

the_flying_pig

Generali wrote: »

I agree with you.

Can you be a little clearer as to why you think this is the wrong approach? I speak to the CIO at our largish fund management company every day and I'm sure he'd be interested in anything that stole a march over our rivals and our Mom and Pop clients would love to get a better return on their pension savings.

Your question's not possible to answer without a really careful definition of your underlying purpose in what it is that you're asking, e.g.

1 - How should I attempt to extrapolate past trends in order to estimate the future?
2 - How should I use past data to describe, on a backward-looking basis, what happened in the past?
3 - etc.

What you're implying, i.e.

someone who doesn't agree that Nov 12 vs. Nov 11 comparisons should be described as 'YoY' obviously doesn't understand/know anything about forecasting

just seems tiresome, lazy, wrong?

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Annual results and comparisons give a more meaningful measure.

If I was a grower and seller of Xmas trees. My accounts would look shocking for 10 months of the year.

Depends what you're looking at I suppose.

Looking at housing transactions 2011 vs 2012 is great but if we had to wait until the end of 2013 for the next comparison it would be a bit static (and, more importantly, what would we argue about?). Better to take YoY data and plot it on a monthly basis so that trends can be identified.

If I was an Xmas tree seller I'd be plotting YoY data on a daily basis during my selling season i.e. comparing 1/12/11 vs 1/12/12 - would probably try and drill in to the day of the week too. If you've a 4 week selling season you need to react to data more quickly otherwise the lessons learnt might not pay off for a full year.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Wow, this thread sure does have a lot of the usual suspects rather upset.

Prices rising AND more FTB-s buying. The exact opposite of what they've been telling us should happen for the last few years.

No wonder they're having such a hard time with it.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Wow, this thread sure does have a lot of the usual suspects rather upset.

Prices rising AND more FTB-s buying. The exact opposite of what they've been telling us should happen for the last few years.

No wonder they're having such a hard time with it.

Works both ways though. Worth remembering.

Of course, you won't claim foul play, and you will acknowledge YOY lending is down 10% when the numbers work that way amd the same point is made.

Up until today, over what, 3-4 years on this forum, NO ONE has ever taken to describing it the way you ave today.

Oh by the way...

Sales volumes on the land registry are down 23% YOY using the most recent sales volume data, that being September 2012.

They were up 9% YOY in May 2012. Dreadful eh!

Enjoy.

the_flying_pig

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Works both ways though. Worth remembering.

Of course, you won't claim foul play, and you will acknowledge YOY lending is down 10% when the numbers work that way amd the same point is made.

Up until today, over what, 3-4 years on this forum, NO ONE has ever taken to describing it the way you ave today.

Oh by the way...

Sales volumes on the land registry are down 23% YOY using the most recent sales volume data, that being September 2012.

They were up 9% YOY in May 2012. Dreadful eh!

Enjoy.

i just checked the site & get slightly different results:

Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011: +16% 'YoY [ahem]';
Feb: +13% YoY;
Mar: +31% YoY;
Apr: -15% YoY;
May: +7% YoY;
Jun: +3% YoY;
Jul: -6% YoY;
Aug: -1% YoY;
Sep: -21% 'YoY.

as good an illustration as any of the extremely narrow [i.e. non-existent] sense in which such numbers constitute 'YoY' by most definitions.

crash123

From the report

"Remortgage lending fell in November, continuing to run below year-earlier levels. A total of £3.2 billion was advanced, down from £3.5 billion in October and 26% lower than the same period in 2011. "
Any thoughts?

Graham_Devon

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i just checked the site & get slightly different results:

Jan 2012 vs Jan 2011: +16% 'YoY [ahem]';
Feb: +13% YoY;
Mar: +31% YoY;
Apr: -15% YoY;
May: +7% YoY;
Jun: +3% YoY;
Jul: -6% YoY;
Aug: -1% YoY;
Sep: -21% 'YoY.

as good an illustration as any of the extremely narrow [i.e. non-existent] sense in which such numbers constitute 'YoY' by most definitions.

I was simply rounding numbers up and down to make the point.

But yer, you proved it!

Must have been an awful year, starting at 16% up and ending up 21% down! <ahem>

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Up until today, over what, 3-4 years on this forum, NO ONE has ever taken to describing it the way you ave today.

Oh by the way...

Sales volumes on the land registry are down 23% YOY using the most recent sales volume data, that being September 2012.

They were up 9% YOY in May 2012. Dreadful eh!

Not that there's any question about your maths but could you show your working?

Did you calculate using the unique YOY calculation that Hamish invented? It's just that although you rubbished it you didn't seem to tell us what the correct number should be.

I've got a tumbleweed picture at the ready and I'm not afraid to use it.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I was simply rounding numbers up and down to make the point.

How did you round 21% up to 23%?