Triple Dip InEscapable - UK Back In Recession?

Masomnia

The only difference is the smugness factor on the news in the morning when they interview Ed Balls.

DecentLivingWage

Guys guys.... have you already forgotten that the starting line was moved? Remember, things are so bad that they had to lower their expectations so these figures look better as they're coming up from a much lower base than before? You are all so lovely and trusting... ONS had to rip its Jan estimate for growth in manuf from -1.5% to -1.9%. Consequently Feb's data is 'gaining' off a very low starting point,even worse this will now result in suspicion and panic as it damages trust in the data causing loss of confidence to believe and invest! O ye of too much faith - this is a sign of how bad things are,not how good, when even the figures markers have to be altered!

Bottom line is theres still year-on-year deterioration for both - best we can hope for is it stabilises and at least stops going down as quickly!! Con backbenchers in marginal seats are panicking and will want their seats saving by Osborne quitting soon - even welfare and Thatcher isnt working for them (Cons on record low this morning as Labour lead jumps to 14!! a 120 majority for Labour)

grizzly1911

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

data is 'gaining' off a very low starting point,

That is an interesting point - trending downwards.

Generali

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Guys guys.... have you already forgotten that the starting line was moved? Remember, things are so bad that they had to lower their expectations so these figures look better as they're coming up from a much lower base than before? You are all so lovely and trusting... ONS had to rip its Jan estimate for growth in manuf from -1.5% to -1.9%. Consequently Feb's data is 'gaining' off a very low starting point,even worse this will now result in suspicion and panic as it damages trust in the data causing loss of confidence to believe and invest! O ye of too much faith - this is a sign of how bad things are,not how good, when even the figures markers have to be altered!

Bottom line is theres still year-on-year deterioration for both - best we can hope for is it stabilises and at least stops going down as quickly!! Con backbenchers in marginal seats are panicking and will want their seats saving by Osborne quitting soon - even welfare and Thatcher isnt working for them (Cons on record low this morning as Labour lead jumps to 14!! a 120 majority for Labour)

Just out of interest, do you know what GDP actually is? You don't know how trade works, we've got that much.

How deep into Numptynomics are you? I think we should know.

mystic_trev

Good afternoon DLW. We haven't seen much of you today I expect you've been out celebrating with your chums;)

We've escaped the inescapable :j

Thrugelmir

mystic_trev wrote: »

Good afternoon DLW. We haven't seen much of you today I expect you've been out celebrating with your chums;)

We've escaped the inescapable :j

Was thinking the same.

Ed can't much mileage out of saying the economy is flatlining. A it's what was expected.

Spin doctors will probably revert back to personal attacks now.

antrobus

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

....Bottom line is theres still year-on-year deterioration ...

The ONS figures also showed that GDP had risen by 0.6% when compared with the first quarter of 2012, the strongest year-on-year increase since the end of 2011.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290407

Wrong again.

chewmylegoff

+0.3% and the weather was awful. Just imagine what that growth figure would have been like without all the snow?!

Quick buy a house.

Generali

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Triple Dip inescapable says ITN News at ten - even though I have posted about this already - in November, I really wasn't expecting it to be this bad (service sector & unemployment) As previously posted it looks as if the Xmas quarter shrank by 0.2% - no wonder Dave looked pink and flustered and flounced off under interview earlier, the Cons must be wondering why we aren't spending (we could tell them.... if they lived in our world....)

Well you could barely have got that more wrong.

Up 0.3% was very creditable considering the weather. If a lack of growth was all the Tories' fault, does this great result mean the Tories are doing well?

grizzly1911

Generali wrote: »

Well you could barely have got that more wrong.

Up 0.3% was very creditable considering the weather. If a lack of growth was all the Tories' fault, does this great result mean the Tories are doing well?

I know you like to wind DLW up but aren't we just back where we were at the end of September? How much more was it than Q1/2012?

However, Labour will seize on the fact that, as the ONS said in its statement, GDP "has been broadly flat over the last 18 months". Output from the economy remains 2.6% below its pre-crisis peak in 2008.
Tony Dolphin, chief economist at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said the economy was "stuck in a rut".
"Normally, we would expect the economy to grow by around 12% over any five-year period. The fact that it has contracted by 2.6% instead means almost 15% of potential output has been lost, along with the employment opportunities and tax revenues that would have accompanied it," he added.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/25/uk-avoid-triple-dip-recession-gdp-growth