Any other home buyers in NI?

A.L.D.A

warmhands.coldheart wrote: »

The BIG difference in Northern Ireland I think, and I know people will not agree, is that there is NO shortage of houses here like there is in GB..... there are empty houses around every corner here...... and also lot of the mid 20's and above here in Northern Ireland will happily live at "home" with Mum & Dad until they can save enough up to afford to buy their first house, so not as much strain on the rental market..

According to the NI empty homes strategy; [FONT=&quot]"as of December 2012 there were over 40,000 people on the Waiting List with approximately half of these applicants in housing stress".[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]How long does the average house last, and how many do we need to replace each year? Say about 7000 needing replacing each year. Add in the projected increase in households per year (about 7,500).
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[FONT=&quot]Actually completed in 2013 - 8030.
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[FONT=&quot]We can all argue the life expectancy of buildings and the projection for population growth, but the difference between possible demand and actual provision is so large that it is safe to assume a a deficit.
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[FONT=&quot]On the derelict property being our salvation, many of these properties are derelict because they need major investment to make good. Also many are owned by government agencies. Then there are redevelopment projects that will be demolishing more properties than they are building. Add to this factors like suitability of accommodation available for various sectors.
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[FONT=&quot]IMO somewhere down the line lack of availability is going to bite.It may mean an increase in the numbers homeless or sharing accommodation, and it will tend to increase house prices.
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qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

I'm not going to argue against this one because I don't even know when to start. Why go off on a tangent about Jaguars and shoes when the numbers prove you wrong?

The numbers prove me wrong if there is no further depreciation. You of course are able to guarantee this. I am not and therefore must see buying as an emotional decision rather than an economic one, which of course it is.

As a numbers nerd you are also familiar with the terms"opportunity cost". "Mis allocation of capital" and "bull trap ".

If the right house with a fair bit of land comes up in the area we want to live we will buy it. We will not attempt to justify it as a business decision that's going to make us look like Donald trump (with better hair) or whistle past the graveyard by producing flimsy calculations which blow away at the first change in the weather. (Like Donald's hair)

You bought a house. You like it. Good luck with it . There's a certain satisfaction with owning I agree but any depreciation and it soon feels like a mill stone.

warmhands.coldheart

A.L.D.A wrote: »

According to the NI empty homes strategy; [FONT=&quot]"as of December 2012 there were over 40,000 people on the Waiting List with approximately half of these applicants in housing stress".[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]How long does the average house last, and how many do we need to replace each year? Say about 7000 needing replacing each year. Add in the projected increase in households per year (about 7,500). [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Actually completed in 2013 - 8030. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]We can all argue the life expectancy of buildings and the projection for population growth, but the difference between possible demand and actual provision is so large that it is safe to assume a a deficit.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]On the derelict property being our salvation, many of these properties are derelict because they need major investment to make good. Also many are owned by government agencies. Then there are redevelopment projects that will be demolishing more properties than they are building. Add to this factors like suitability of accommodation available for various sectors. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]IMO somewhere down the line lack of availability is going to bite.It may mean an increase in the numbers homeless or sharing accommodation, and it will tend to increase house prices. [/FONT]

40,000 on the waiting list.... with half in Housing stress, yeah right...... First of all, how many actually truly are in "Housing Stress" and how many are on the list just to get a Housing association house rather than rent privately, that's the real question...... I know of about 5 couples over the last 5 years who were on the housing list. Out of these 5, 4 could easily have rented privately as all were in work. Needless to say these 4 couples were not married and had a minimum of 1 child so the mothers all applied for housing as a single parent..... In one year 2 of the couples got married and went on to buy houses in that same year........ Now that is NOT housing need in my book, that is abusing the system.......

motorguy

work_to_live wrote: »

is it better to save and rent or hava mortgage with all the fees, insurance and interest? you two seem to know what ur talkin about so would be interested to know which option would come out better financially :think:

Those calculations are based on "a" report saying prices went down last year. Most are saying prices rose. Also most are predicting increases again this year, based on recovery in the economy in general.

Its very easy to find a single report and justify your own position based on this, but the bottom line is there are people here who werent buying because they were waiting for the market to bottom out before buying a property, and they were quite gleeful at every sign the market was continuing to drop. And of course they were justified in not buying.

There is now every sign that has bottomed out and most are saying its on the rise, but they're now finding other justifications why now is not the right time to buy. Which of course means they are justified in not buying now either.

Makes you wonder if these people were ever in the position to buy in the first place - either because of financial constraints, borrowing limitations or personal constraints.

It just seems odd to me that people with very sizeable lump sums sitting around and prices as cheap as they are as likely to be are finding all these excuses not to buy. Just doesnt stack up to me.

Again, each to their own. I'm renting out our previous house to a guy who has always rented houses, always intended to. Great long term tenant, and hes paying my mortgage for me. So i'm happy.

From his perspective hes had none of the worries or concerns of the housing market. So hes happy.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

As previously said, we're enjoying having our lives subsidised by regretful property investors. Depreciation, rates, insurance and repairs are no concern of mine, and I'm happy to pay a modest rEnt to avoid those horrors.
In the few years we've been in this gaff, mr shrewd investor buy to let has lost approx 150, 000 on the deal. What a bargain it's been for us. Could have been worse - he might have a bad tenant and a void period - but of course I don't need to tell you about that?
Meanwhile our savings have been growing nicely.

Hard to believe, but had we bought this millstone in 2007, we would now need a lottery win to be in the financial position we are in today.

Perhaps the market is moving up. As we' re often told, past performance is no guide to future returns. All that guff about how you can't lose on property, renting is dead money, house prices never go down - still believe it?

Theres a lot of ifs and ands in there - "IF" i'd bought seven years ago, blah blah blah. But this is NOW.

House prices are for peanuts. There was a 3 bed town house, built just a matter of years ago and in a quiet small cul de sac off a main road sold recently close to me for £42,000! A friend of mine bought a 3 bed semi with double glazing, OFCH on a good end site and in good condition for £51,000.

I'd be laughing myself to sleep if i was him.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

So yes the market may actually go up a bit.

I'm not dashing out to buy some house I don't want just because renting is dead money, you can't lose on property, house prices never go down. Wrong.

Fair enough. If you're happy renting, great.

But dont justify that based on "oh if we'd bought seven years ago..."

Just say you're happy to continue renting. Dont try to find evidence to support your stance. You dont have to.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

The sad truth is the house must appreciate for a buyer to be ahead. Roughly, even flat prices are a loser if you need a mortgage. Slightly different if you have enough savings to buy outright, but any depreciation and you're goosed any way you're buying.

Not true.

At the end of the mortgage, you own the house. did you forget that?

In 25 years time the renter will, well, still be renting.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

The major reason to avoid buying is to avoid further cataclysms.

If you're buying at the LOW point, how are you avoiding further cataclysms?

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Don't take offence but it seems there's some excessive protesting going on here.

Its not protesting - what do i care what you do - it just seems very odd. 5 year ago "oh not buying, market going down", a year ago "oh not buying, market might not have bottomed out", now "oh not buying - prices might not continue to go up"

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Anyone who sat out the madness of the last few years can chill for a while yet.

... until what? Prices go up consistently for 5 years, by which point they're up 20%?

What will you're reasons for not buying be then "oh not buying - prices might drop"?

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Any one buying a house now having lived through the last 7 years cannot be assured that the whole meltdown will not happen again. Therefore the decision must be based on grounds other than economic. I bought a new pair of shoes the other day. Not a sensible decision business wise. I still bought them. Likewise there is no reason to buy a jag when a fiesta will carry you around just as well. People still buy jags. The same thinking may apply on house purchase.

So summarising, you're afraid to buy in case you get burnt?

motorguy

[QUOTE=qwert yuiop;64733641
]
There's a certain satisfaction with owning I agree but any depreciation and it soon feels like a mill stone.

[/QUOTE]

Why?

You're taking little risk buying at the bottom of the market, and who gives a hoot what happens to prices after you've actually bought?

You're £100K house might hit a million in five years time, or it might drop back to £50K, but who gives a stuff? You just keep paying your mortgage on your own home, afterwhich you OWN it. It might be worth £200,000 then, or it might be worth £10,000 then. Its still your home to do with as you please.

OR you could just keep renting someone elses house.