Any other home buyers in NI?

tommie

`Over the year, the terraced/townhouse sector with an average price of £82,902 showed an increase of 3.9% and apartments at an average of £95,187 were up slightly by 0.3%.

In contrast, the average price of semi-detached houses fell by 3.6% over the year to £118,038. Semi-detached bungalows dropped 14.5% to £103,784 and the average price of detached bungalows dropped 4.4% to £141,164. Detached houses also declined by 9.3% to £219,493.`

wonder where it would all be without `Co-ownership`, `Help to Buy`, 5% mortgages etc??

qwert_yuiop

tommie wrote: »

`Over the year, the terraced/townhouse sector with an average price of £82,902 showed an increase of 3.9% and apartments at an average of £95,187 were up slightly by 0.3%.

In contrast, the average price of semi-detached houses fell by 3.6% over the year to £118,038. Semi-detached bungalows dropped 14.5% to £103,784 and the average price of detached bungalows dropped 4.4% to £141,164. Detached houses also declined by 9.3% to £219,493.`

wonder where it would all be without `Co-ownership`, `Help to Buy`, 5% mortgages etc??

Looks a lot like a crash, doesn't it? Any crowing from recent purchasers would seem a bit premature - I'd say we won't know for another six months or so.

A.L.D.A

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Looks a lot like a crash, doesn't it? Any crowing from recent purchasers would seem a bit premature - I'd say we won't know for another six months or so.

A weighted quarterly increase of 1.3% is not a crash?

The way I read that report is the low end of the market is rising. Not surprising as there are now good returns to be had in that sector for buy to let.

All else is still falling BUT there has been a significant increase in sales, which tells us that;
1. People are accepting less:
2. People are finding the prices attractive;
3 People are now able to raise the mortgage required to buy;
4 Houses that were on the market for some time are now selling. (at least where I am they are).

So question is will increased activity continue? Will it encourage more people to put their house back on the market or will we simply soak up the supply currently available?

Bottoming out? Probably. However it would take little to knock confidence. There will be an election in 2015 so I doubt if there will be anything unpleasant from the government before then.

Inflation is allegedly around 2.2% which should be factored in any relative assessment.

I see no reason why increased volume will not continue across into the spring and early summer. Will availability continue to be good?

Long term we live in a country in relative economic decline, and I see little to suggest that the current, or future government will take radical measures to encourage sectors that are likely to create wealth. There are serious levels of private and public debt and unless there is growth the outlook is less than exiting. Very little any of us can do about that.

qwert_yuiop

A.L.D.A wrote: »

A weighted quarterly increase of 1.3% is not a crash?

The way I read that report is the low end of the market is rising. Not surprising as there are now good returns to be had in that sector for buy to let.

All else is still falling BUT there has been a significant increase in sales, which tells us that;
1. People are accepting less:
2. People are finding the prices attractive;
3 People are now able to raise the mortgage required to buy;
4 Houses that were on the market for some time are now selling. (at least where I am they are).

So question is will increased activity continue? Will it encourage more people to put their house back on the market or will we simply soak up the supply currently available?

Bottoming out? Probably. However it would take little to knock confidence. There will be an election in 2015 so I doubt if there will be anything unpleasant from the government before then.

Inflation is allegedly around 2.2% which should be factored in any relative assessment.

I see no reason why increased volume will not continue across into the spring and early summer. Will availability continue to be good?

Long term we live in a country in relative economic decline, and I see little to suggest that the current, or future government will take radical measures to encourage sectors that are likely to create wealth. There are serious levels of private and public debt and unless there is growth the outlook is less than exiting. Very little any of us can do about that.

A report like that would have been extraordinary any time before 2007.
The rate of decline has never been as marked as it was in the early years of the reversal - deflation cannot persist indefinitely.

Our region has been different to the rest of the UK due to our closer links to the bubble down South and this decoupling will continue to influence our market.

qwert_yuiop

A.L.D.A wrote: »

A weighted quarterly increase of 1.3% is not a crash?

The way I read that report is the low end of the market is rising. Not surprising as there are now good returns to be had in that sector for buy to let.

All else is still falling BUT there has been a significant increase in sales, which tells us that;
1. People are accepting less:
2. People are finding the prices attractive;
3 People are now able to raise the mortgage required to buy;
4 Houses that were on the market for some time are now selling. (at least where I am they are).

So question is will increased activity continue? Will it encourage more people to put their house back on the market or will we simply soak up the supply currently available?

Bottoming out? Probably. However it would take little to knock confidence. There will be an election in 2015 so I doubt if there will be anything unpleasant from the government before then.

Inflation is allegedly around 2.2% which should be factored in any relative assessment.

I see no reason why increased volume will not continue across into the spring and early summer. Will availability continue to be good?

Long term we live in a country in relative economic decline, and I see little to suggest that the current, or future government will take radical measures to encourage sectors that are likely to create wealth. There are serious levels of private and public debt and unless there is growth the outlook is less than exiting. Very little any of us can do about that.

A report like that would have been extraordinary any time before 2007.
The rate of decline has never been as marked as it was in the early years of the reversal - deflation cannot persist indefinitely.

Our region has been different to the rest of the UK due to our closer links to the bubble down South and this decoupling will continue to influence our market.

Any evidence that terraces are being sold to investors?

Mistral001

A.L.D.A wrote: »

All else is still falling BUT there has been a significant increase in sales, which tells us that;
1. People are accepting less:
2. People are finding the prices attractive;
3 People are now able to raise the mortgage required to buy;
4 Houses that were on the market for some time are now selling. (at least where I am they are).

Could the fact that the repossession numbers are still rising (see BBC Spotlight programme of last week) have anything to do with the increase in sales?

qwert_yuiop

Mistral001 wrote: »

Could the fact that the repossession numbers are still rising (see BBC Spotlight programme of last week) have anything to do with the increase in sales?

Presumably a sale is obligatory following repossession, whatever the offers are.

A.L.D.A

Mistral001 wrote: »

Could the fact that the repossession numbers are still rising (see BBC Spotlight programme of last week) have anything to do with the increase in sales?

I don't think it is. From what I am seeing much of it seems to be between house owner and purchaser, (except the likes of apartments) but that is only anecdotal. The sector where I am seeing purchases through repossessions, low cost rental portfolios, is the sector that appears to be making gains. Wish I had a breakdown of the statistics as to who is buying. If we get 3-4 quarters like this then valuers and banks start to have more confidence.

Long term I would be concern about overall levels of debt, low economic growth, and lack of inflation (with incomes rising in line). The economy is maxed out on debt, and both the people and government can't simultaneously pay down debt as that risks implosion, without a major increase in export earnings which I cannot see happening. As for the local economy what has the collection up on the Hill done for the economy? As far as I can see they haven't even followed up on the idea for free ports and other measures on offer. Bombs, flags and all the usual. Depressing.

qwert_yuiop

A.L.D.A wrote: »

I don't think it is. From what I am seeing much of it seems to be between house owner and purchaser, (except the likes of apartments) but that is only anecdotal. The sector where I am seeing purchases through repossessions, low cost rental portfolios, is the sector that appears to be making gains. Wish I had a breakdown of the statistics as to who is buying. If we get 3-4 quarters like this then valuers and banks start to have more confidence.

Long term I would be concern about overall levels of debt, low economic growth, and lack of inflation (with incomes rising in line). The economy is maxed out on debt, and both the people and government can't simultaneously pay down debt as that risks implosion, without a major increase in export earnings which I cannot see happening. As for the local economy what has the collection up on the Hill done for the economy? As far as I can see they haven't even followed up on the idea for free ports and other measures on offer. Bombs, flags and all the usual. Depressing.

So no significant change in the market.

A.L.D.A

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

So no significant change in the market.

No there is adjustment, bottom end is increasing in value and more activity elsewhere. To me that would tend to indicate that either more are able to obtain mortgages and / or that more find the prices attractive? Perhaps prices have reached a level more find attractive? A possible sign of bottoming out.

Can't see upsets before the next election.

I have read some predictions of 20% increase, but I think that type of recovery to be utterly fanciful. Won't happen unless disposable income and employment increases. However when that happens interest rates will start to increase. So perhaps a long period of relative stability ahead. Long term I would be worried about the supply end of the equation, more in relation to levels of homelessness. Very serious problems ahead.