Population increases and housebuilding stats...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Between 1971 and 2000 the population rose by about 100,000 a year on average. But we built more than 200,000 homes a year.

No wonder our aspirations regarding homes and home ownership and second home ownership rose.

And no wonder houses used to be cheaper in those days.....

Anyway, if it's primarily a supply/demand issue, then something should have changed after 2000 when prices exploded....

But in the years 2001 to 2010 we built fewer than 200,000 homes a year on average when the population was rising at more than 300,000 a year. .

Ah. Like that perhaps.

Supply and demand in action.... It really is that simple.

So what happens next?

, in this coming decade if the population estimates prove in any way accurate, we will see the percentage increase in the population outstrip the percentage increase in the housing stock and by some margin.

That means a big change, as we will have to squeeze more people on average into each home. And that reverses a trend set more than a century ago of ever decreasing household sizes.

On the basis of these latest figures, just to keep the average ratio of 2.3 people per home steady the stock of homes in the UK would need to rise by more than 2 million between 2010 and 2020.

http://brickonomics.building.co.uk/2011/10/this-decade-will-be-the-first-in-more-than-a-century-when-britain%E2%80%99s-homes-become-more-crowded/

Oh dear.

Looks like the next few years will be a very bad time to be a housing bear....;)

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And no wonder houses used to be cheaper in those days.....

Anyway, if it's primarily a supply/demand issue, then something should have changed after 2000 when prices exploded....



Ah. Like that perhaps.

Supply and demand in action.... It really is that simple.

So what happens next?

http://brickonomics.building.co.uk/2011/10/this-decade-will-be-the-first-in-more-than-a-century-when-britain%E2%80%99s-homes-become-more-crowded/

Oh dear.

Looks like the next few years will be a very bad time to be a housing bear....;)

I am up early this morning to start a usual days work, I can see you have been up to the early hours fretting again.

What I find troubling about your latest post/s Hamish is that you seem to be trying to tell us that we have a huge property crisis due to mass immigration and a total lack of building.
I don't think you will find a serious commentator(bear or otherwise) who would argue about this PROBLEM.

But you write in a certain tone that gives away your obvious joy of the situation, you are over the moon at poor adequate housing conditions, sick.

The so called "Bear" that you often post about Hamish and for some odd reason despise are more often than not talking about housing issues and problems that are now mainstream media news.

I would have more respect and time for you posts if you could at least be honest and admit that in your world you do not give a toss about social issues when it comes to housing, but your lust and greed for increases far outweighs the rights and wrongs.

Mallotum_X

Interesting stats but dont forget that there will have been many houses removed from the housing stock in the same periods, especially the 1970s when slum clearance continued. Without comparing net changes to housing stock the figures are pretty meaningless.

chewmylegoff

We went through all this about 6 months ago and the stats indicated that between 2000 and 2010 houses were built at a rate which allowed the average household size to fall. Hamish then got into a bit of a twist claiming that this was nothing to do with housebuilding and everything to do with more people choosing to live alone. I tried to explain how average household size was calculated but he didn't like it so started typing in capitals a lot.

NEO72

Hmm lets see..
Population rising 300K per year
Average household size 2.3 people
= 130K houses required per year
New homes built = 200K per year (actually just less)

Yes Hamish, conclusive proof that it was supply/demand and not increasingly lax lending that pushed prices up over that period.

Now what any self-respecting bull would have done is arbitrarily select a period when demand did indeed exceed supply such as 2009 onwards. Then again, as prices haven't risen since then it would show up your argument for the crock of !!!!! it really is.

the_flying_pig

my thoughts, in brief...

1. let he who is without sin cast the first stone and all that, i personally can waste time with the best of them and do lots of things that are 'sad' in their own way, but IMO there's something scarily wrong about a man in his 40s starting, four days before Christmas at half past one in the morning, a stupid thread on a message board about a 15 month old brickonomics blog post.

2. this is all very complex stuff, e.g. the last five years have seen the largest amount of 5-year immigration ever & also the biggest 5-year house price falls ever.

3. gloating about an article littered with the following sorts of words is, well, not very nice: "...bad to worse...", "...uncomfortable...", "...squeeze...", "...struggle...".

4. the following bit makes no sense to me - H always likes to argue that [actually, zzzzz....]

BertieUK

I think that Hamish may have just been to a Highland Ceilidh getting ready for the New Year.

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I am up early this morning to start a usual days work, I can see you have been up to the early hours fretting again.

Hamish came home late because he was at a Homeowners' christmas party with moneyinmypocket, nollag, Sibley and myself. We had a splendid time, too bad you couldn't make it.

shortchanged_2

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Hamish came home late because he was at a Homeowners' christmas party with moneyinmypocket, nollag, Sibley and myself. We had a splendid time, too bad you couldn't make it.

Why didn't I get an invite?

Mr._Pricklepants

shortchanged wrote: »

Why didn't I get an invite?

Sorry shorty, I forgot

But chin up, I'm sure you'll get an invite for Graham's Doom & Gloom 2012 Christmas Bash, where you can have a toast on the next leg down with Foxy, brit, and Desperate Prof. :snow_grin

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Hamish came home late because he was at a Homeowners' christmas party with moneyinmypocket, nollag, Sibley and myself. We had a splendid time, too bad you couldn't make it.

:rotfl:

I was indeed up late and having a wee dram last night.;)

Although judging by how grumpy some of the bears are in this thread, I'm not the only one with a sore head this morning.