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Too Scared To Invest
Comments
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Footsie at 8900? Where can I bet on that not happening for a long time? (Will need to hedge against rampant inflation.)
The Footsie is already close to where it was before the crash, and nothing accounts for this except the widespread expectation that super-loose monetary policy will have to continue for a long time.
This is a gigantic bet on the markets taking no notice if/when we lose the AAA. But the markets might just decide it's time to switch back to dollars. Or if not then, then later.
End of monetary policy. Footsie staring 3000 in the face again.
I'm expecting one more crash before we see another great bull stocks run the type that sees a doubleing of share values over a 2-3 year period. Yes this may well be in conjunction with high inflation. The FTSE is quite commodities heavy so I expect the big miners to lead the way.0 -
I'm not sure what to expect, hence my eclectic approach.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Footsie at 8900? Where can I bet on that not happening for a long time? (Will need to hedge against rampant inflation.)
The Footsie is already close to where it was before the crash, and nothing accounts for this except the widespread expectation that super-loose monetary policy will have to continue for a long time.
This is a gigantic bet on the markets taking no notice if/when we lose the AAA. But the markets might just decide it's time to switch back to dollars. Or if not then, then later.
End of monetary policy. Footsie staring 3000 in the face again.
In my view this is short term noise. Any money one needs within the next 5 years should be in cash or close to it now. And in 5 years time who knows what the situation will be.
Now what happens when/if we lose AAA rating? Not a lot in my view - the market knows it might happen and has already had ample opportunity to allow for it in the prices. The market has problems with totally unforeseen events, not things that have been flagged for months/years. As to switching to dollars: didnt S&P cut the US credit rating to AA a year or so ago? I dont remember the sky falling in then.
In any case the FTSE100 is comprised mainly of global companies many of which carry out most of their business outside the UK. A few dont do any business in the UK. The index is far more driven by global events, not a small change to the UK credit rating. So this scenario of the index halving in value because of a step lowering of the credit rating is really OTT. The FTSE could halve in the next 5 years, but only following globally catastrophic events.
Sorry to be blase about things that appear to terrify pqrdef, but having been through economic crises every 5-10 years for the past 40 years its difficult to regard them as much more than a passing storm.
PS if you really believe that the FTSE is likely to drop catastrophically the answer is simple - dont invest in it.0 -
Isn't this just an extension of normal human psychology affecting economics and investments though. Individual companies are going to vary but on average the current share index in the uk pays decent dividends on reasoanble P/E ratios, dividend cover etc
Therefore think that the market looks fairly, and probably slightly under, valued.0 -
Sorry to be blase about things that appear to terrify pqrdef, but having been through economic crises every 5-10 years for the past 40 years its difficult to regard them as much more than a passing storm.
So true. I greet every major wobble as an opportunity, cast my eye over my asset allocation, and generally chill. It's worked thus far.
Or grow some balls and short it. If people are really so sure that equities are doomed, then the mechanism for raking in the money is close at hand.PS if you really believe that the FTSE is likely to drop catastrophically the answer is simple - dont invest in it.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »Or grow some balls and short it. If people are really so sure that equities are doomed, then the mechanism for raking in the money is close at hand.
I do both, it just about turns a profit but I haven't been skillful (ha!) enough to rake it in yet. The recent wobble over the last couple of days was a nice little Christmas bonus though.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »Sounds good to me. Loads of juicy dividend payers on uber-low valuations. What's not to like?
How many stocks provide the bulk of dividends?
What % of total dividends paid by all companies in the FTSE 250 is made by Vodaphone alone?0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »How many stocks provide the bulk of dividends?
In my portfolio, 25, but there are plenty of other candidates.What % of total dividends paid by all companies in the FTSE 250 is made by Vodaphone alone?
No such company, but the similarly named Vodafone currently makes up 5.6% of my dividend income stream, but this is ignoring last Feb's special divi from Verizon.
A FTSE tracker is obviously going to have a different make up, with less emphasis on yield and thus more coverage of "more growthy" companies. Which is the best long term approach is less than clear!
BTW, I started building my high yield portfolio is early 2011 and it's given a total return to date of 22%. Yield on purchase price is now 5.5% and the odd constituent or two having a wobble won't cause major tears before bedtime.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Dangerous to assume this one will be the same as the others. They were all different to this one because they didn't have sustained ultra low interest rates, £375 billion of freshly printed money, or anything like the size of spiralling national debt.:eek:having been through economic crises every 5-10 years for the past 40 years its difficult to regard them as much more than a passing storm.
In the past something like the wool trade, the Industrial Revolution, Colonisation, North Sea Oil has always come along to get us out of the economic mess the politicians have got us into.
What is going to get us out of this one?
(The only plan I can see seems to be to continue inflating house and asset prices with planning restrictions, low interest rates and printed money, but thats a zero sum game that just gives a false sense of security, and staves off the worst of the crisis until after the next election. Britain needs something that generates real wealth )“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
And only this last week I was reading about why the good times are over for Vodafone and Tesco.
I passed on Vodaphone but am still holding Tesco on the basis that Tesco still has a PE ratio of 9.75, Vodaphone has a PE ratio of infinity because it made a loss.“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0
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