oil price monitoring

bernithebiker

I posted about this last year.

Yes you can use this method to predict heating oil prices, as there is a lag in the spot price on sites like oil-price.net and the prices practiced by the suppliers.

Bear in mind that although the crude price is a good rough indicator, there is a separate marker price for gasoil (heating oil). It can be the case that crude goes down and gasoil goes up, although this is rare. The relation between the 2 is called the gasoil crack and is traded by oil traders. In times of strong gasoil demand the crack will increase, i.e. there is more incentive for refiners to maximise gasoil production at the expense of petrol or kerosene.

(I was an oil trader for 10 years).

njp6

Please see below my recent mail to OFT
Sorry the data sheet doesn't copy over well into this forum from Excel.

Dear Mr Wallace
Please see data attached below whilst your investigation failed to find any price fixing between the heating oil suppliers could you please advise what justification they have to increase the price by 10pence a litre when oil prices are the same now as in May 2012? The only thing that has changed is the temperature and these greedy suppliers are making huge profits whilst they are not being regulated correctly, it’s about time this was properly investigated there is all the hype about energy companies increasing prices by 8-10% the base price of this product has not changed yet the oil suppliers have increased the cost by over 17.5%.

It’s all very well advising users to replenish supplies during the summer months but many users have small oil tanks which cannot hold more than 1-2 month’s supply (500-750ltrs) so stocking up isn’t an option, also many of these properties are in rural communities where wages and finances are very stretched, it’s about time these people were properly represented by your organisation.

Date EU Crude Oil price ppl Oil price Boiler Juice ppl Brent Crude p
25/05/2012 0.519 55.68 107.9
09/11/2012 0.526 60.4 109.46 temps average 4 -6C
06/12/2012 0.521 65.5 106.93 evening temps-2C & -4C


I look forward to hearing your comments on why this is still so out of control with the oil suppliers including the rather large DCC calling the tune!"

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There is not much chance of answering the original question on this forum when all the oil suppliers are at the same game I had one quote yesterday (15p per litre higher than in May when crude was at the same level) where the lady said to me we have been told we cannot negotiate the prices it's cold and near to Christmas!!
The only thing I would say is if you have evidence of this cartel operating then voice this to the OFT and your local MP to see if the OFT can do their job properly and get to grips with this crooked practise, not like the last wishy washy report.

We cannot even do a Starbucks and withdraw our custom otherwise we will end up cold!