Nationwide Oct: +0.6%

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The best possible outcome for the country as a whole would be for lending to return to historically normal, prudent and sensible criteria, where roughly twice tO three times the current number of mortgages would be issued given how affordable housing has now become. House prices would then of course rise more strongly in the short term, with the consequent boost to the wider economy, construction, consumer confidence, retail, etc. Eventually however increased house building would allow for those rises to taper off to a more sustainable long term increase of around inflationary levels, provided we build enough.

There will be no significant and sustainable recovery in the economy until there is a significant and sustainable recovery in house prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They're as sustainable as price rises in any asset class. And like any other asset, there are limits. But we're nowhere near that yet.

i love the smell of ramping [& more general lazy pro-HPI propaganda] in the morning.

shortchanged_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The best possible outcome for the country as a whole would be for lending to return to historically normal, prudent and sensible criteria, where roughly twice tO three times the current number of mortgages would be issued given how affordable housing has now become. House prices would then of course rise more strongly in the short term, with the consequent boost to the wider economy, construction, consumer confidence, retail, etc. Eventually however increased house building would allow for those rises to taper off to a more sustainable long term increase of around inflationary levels, provided we build enough.

There will be no significant and sustainable recovery in the economy until there is a significant and sustainable recovery in house prices.

Would this be in tandem with a return to historically normal interest rates Hamish?

Because you can't have it all your own way.

I would be very happy with a return to normal, sensible lending levels, pre boom, as long as interest rates are back to normal and not giving a false impression of 'affordability'.

Is that alright with you Hamish?

merlinonline

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i love the smell of ramping [& more general lazy pro-HPI propaganda] in the morning.

My thoughts exactly, Aberdeen house prices still benefiting from North Sea Oil operations, it won't go on forever.

London house prices being sustained by money from Greeks who are trying to keep their money safe by buying property in London, because of the state of the Greek economy.

Graham_Devon

shortchanged wrote: »

Would this be in tandem with a return to historically normal interest rates Hamish?

Because you can't have it all your own way.

I would be very happy with a return to normal, sensible lending levels, pre boom, as long as interest rates are back to normal and not giving a false impression of 'affordability'.

Is that alright with you Hamish?

Everyone's forgotten about interest rates.

Wookster

Generali wrote: »

More of the same then. Flat as a particularly flat pancake in nominal terms, down a bit in real terms.

That remains the best possible outcome for house prices and the country as a whole.

Actually I have to disagree.

There IS a housing shortage however folks aren't willing to buy at the current prices believing they will go down) and neither are builders willing to build at the current prices believing they will go up.

Without some movement either way its hard to see how the real problem will be addressed.

moneyinmypocket

shortchanged wrote: »

Would this be in tandem with a return to historically normal interest rates Hamish?

Because you can't have it all your own way.

I would be very happy with a return to normal, sensible lending levels, pre boom, as long as interest rates are back to normal and not giving a false impression of 'affordability'.

Is that alright with you Hamish?

Having a bad morning are you lol house prices are on the rise

shortchanged_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Everyone's forgotten about interest rates.

That's the big danger isn't it. Particularly amongst FTB's coming onto the market who may think these current rates are normal.

shortchanged_2

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

Having a bad morning are you lol house prices are on the rise

Nah, I'm alright, thanks for asking though.

Graham_Devon

shortchanged wrote: »

That's the big danger isn't it. Particularly amongst FTB's coming onto the market who may think these current rates are normal.

I think it's a real problem now (being stored for the future). IMHO the danger mark has been passed.

0.5% are normal now. We don't even bother discussing them anymore. Hamish doesn't even glance their way when discussing a normal market. Even economists all but ignore them now. A builders report the other day went into loads of detail about the future and current issues surrounding the market, and interest rates weren't even glanced at.

Percy1983

HOMEOWNERS_ARE_WINNERS wrote: »

Been abroad touring for the last few months and I come back to this. Where is this fabled house price crash that the doom-mongers assured us?

It came, prices dropped and I became a winner (according to your username).

Welcome back by the way