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More good news not Thursday's GDP figure
michaels
Posts: 29,027 Forumite
As we know DC is expecting more economic good news but this thread is about something completely unrelated, tomorrow's Q3 GDP first estimate.
So what are people's guesses? +0.6% for me.
Anyone who guesses minus might want to watch Wednesday lunch time PMQs and then revise their estimate.
So what are people's guesses? +0.6% for me.
Anyone who guesses minus might want to watch Wednesday lunch time PMQs and then revise their estimate.
I think....
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Comments
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A +ve now sets us up nicely for a triple dip.
+0.5%0 -
My guess is it will be 1.3% or above.
I think comparatively this last quarter has been a real push forward ..Whether it can last is another thing ....
And too much good news could have every man and his dog screaming for a pay rise ..0 -
Indeed +0.6% is the official "market estimate". I never know how these advanced figures are arrived at, or by whom, but any reasonable website will quote 0.6% as the 'estimate', above which the 'market' will be ecstatic, and below which it would be 'pesimistic'.
Hence my understanding is that if the officially announced figue is 0.6%, then it should not cause a 'blip' in the FTSE, because this data is already 'priced in'.
An interesting article below, though, which explains why whatever figure is announced tomorrow, it's likely to be wrong.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/jonathan-jones/2012/10/tomorrows-gdp-figure-will-be-wrong/0 -
+0.8%.
Influenced by the Olympics and Stay-vacation by many.0 -
Loughton_Monkey wrote: »Indeed +0.6% is the official "market estimate". I never know how these advanced figures are arrived at, or by whom, but any reasonable website will quote 0.6% as the 'estimate', above which the 'market' will be ecstatic, and below which it would be 'pesimistic'.
Hence my understanding is that if the officially announced figue is 0.6%, then it should not cause a 'blip' in the FTSE, because this data is already 'priced in'.
An interesting article below, though, which explains why whatever figure is announced tomorrow, it's likely to be wrong.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/jonathan-jones/2012/10/tomorrows-gdp-figure-will-be-wrong/
Everyone knows how the estimates are prepared.
The govt sends its agents onto Internet fora to start threads such as these. The agent then gathers the data, eliminates the top and bottom guesses and averages the rest. Then the next day the result is published as the official estimate.0 -
chewmylegoff wrote: »Everyone knows how the estimates are prepared.
The govt sends its agents onto Internet fora to start threads such as these. The agent then gathers the data, eliminates the top and bottom guesses and averages the rest. Then the next day the result is published as the official estimate.
Oh dear...time for a new user name
Still the DW is looking forward to some triple dip action 
I think....0 -
I have no idea, but I will probably go along the lines that data will show we are coming out of recession.
Then there will probably be every chance we will enter a triple dip recession.
Of course we never really had a double dip and will probably not really be having a triple dip if it comes. Economy dropped like a rock in 2007 and has basically bumped along the bottom more or less ever since.0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »I have no idea, but I will probably go along the lines that data will show we are coming out of recession.
Then there will probably be every chance we will enter a triple dip recession.
Of course we never really had a double dip and will probably not really be having a triple dip if it comes. Economy dropped like a rock in 2007 and has basically bumped along the bottom more or less ever since.
I agree with HSW I would even put the trended decline back way before 2007.
No doubt they will be adjusted if they don't reveal what the Government wanted."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
chewmylegoff wrote: »Everyone knows how the estimates are prepared.
The govt sends its agents onto Internet fora to start threads such as these. The agent then gathers the data, eliminates the top and bottom guesses and averages the rest. Then the next day the result is published as the official estimate.
No doubt there will be a rigging scandal in a couple of years then."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »+0.8%.
Influenced by the Olympics and Stay-vacation by many.
I thought the Olympics had quite a depressing affect particularly in tourism and the City trading (not the finance type)."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0
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