Debate House Prices


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ONS- June: +2.3%

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  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    DervProf wrote: »
    If you wanted your property to gain value in real terms, you might complain.

    Given that I'm somewhere north of £50,000 better off through buying in 2007 instead of deferring purchase and renting the same house since, expecting even bigger gains in the middle of a recession might be a tad greedy, even for me...
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Sibley
    Sibley Posts: 1,557 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    These rises must get hard to stomach.

    I bet he issues some poor soul with a speeding ticket..That will teach him to own a house.....:rotfl:
    We love Sarah O Grady
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    Given that I'm somewhere north of £50,000 better off through buying in 2007 instead of deferring purchase and renting the same house since, expecting even bigger gains in the middle of a recession might be a tad greedy, even for me...

    I'm also better off through buying, rather than renting, but I suppose I am worse off than I would have been if I had invested in gold 5 years ago. The interesting thing is that you seem regularly "celebrate" any rise in the possible value of your property, yet react rather negatively to anyone who mentions investment in precious metals. Sour grapes, perhaps ? ;)
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
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    DervProf wrote: »
    investment in precious metals.

    :rotfl:

    PM's have crashed. Down 20% and 40% from peak, respectively.

    And only one way they're going long term...... down, down, deeper and down.;)

    Why would I want to invest in a depreciating asset that offers no yield?
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    Why would I want to invest in a depreciating asset that offers no yield?

    You wouldn't, but unless I'm mistaken, gold has performed far better than property since 2007, despite recent falls. Now I'm not suggesting that you should invest in gold now, but a fair few people did, and were recommending others to do so a few years ago. All I`ve seen you do is suggest that gold isn't a good investment. It's property or nothing, eh Hamish ?
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    DervProf wrote: »
    You wouldn't, but unless I'm mistaken, gold has performed far better than property since 2007, despite recent falls. Now I'm not suggesting that you should invest in gold now, but a fair few people did, and were recommending others to do so a few years ago. All I`ve seen you do is suggest that gold isn't a good investment. It's property or nothing, eh Hamish ?

    In the last 5 years from today, Gold is up 147%.

    So, lets run an example.....

    A buyer in Aberdeen in 2007 takes a 10K deposit and buys a 200K house.

    Today, that house would be worth £212K. So a profit of £12,000.

    Had he instead taken the 10K and bought Gold, that Gold would be worth £24,700. So a profit of £14,700.

    So far so good, right?

    Except of course, people need a place to live, and you can't live in £10K worth of Gold bullion....... so had he not bought the house, he'd have needed to pay rent.

    A 6% rental yield (typical for Aberdeen) on £200,000 for 5 years = £60,000.....

    And in that same time he'd have been able to average around 3.0% or so in mortgage interest.

    So the gain from buying versus renting is now £42,000.... Which beats the alternative, ie, a £14,700 profit from investing the depsoit in Gold in 2007, hands down.

    But, nice try DP, I admire your persistence.;)
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    A buyer in Aberdeen in 2007 takes a 10K deposit and buys a 200K house.

    Today, that house would be worth £212K. So a profit of £12,000.

    Had he instead taken the 10K and bought Gold, that Gold would be worth £24,700. So a profit of £14,700.

    So far so good, right?

    Not really, unless the £190k mortgage is interest free. I know that the base rate is low right now, but I'm sure I haven't seen any base rate - 0.5% deals recently.
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • DervProf wrote: »
    Not really, unless the £190k mortgage is interest free. I know that the base rate is low right now, but I'm sure I haven't seen any base rate - 0.5% deals recently.

    We addressed that bit in the next paragraph, that you conveniently ignored.....
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • ukcarper
    ukcarper Posts: 17,337 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    DervProf wrote: »
    Not really, unless the £190k mortgage is interest free. I know that the base rate is low right now, but I'm sure I haven't seen any base rate - 0.5% deals recently.

    The interest on £190k mortgage at rate of 3% would be £475 a month or £28,500 over 5 years a saving of over £30k. Not sure of his yield figures or whether you could get such a low interest rate but his figures are right and you don’t need a interest free mortgage.
  • ukcarper
    ukcarper Posts: 17,337 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    We addressed that bit in the next paragraph, that you conveniently ignored.....

    Its a bit to easy isn't it.
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