UK GDP Preliminary Estimate Q2 2012 -0.7%

RenovationMan

ILW wrote: »

I think the term "overpaid" rather than "well paid" may be more accurate in the public sector.

Especially when you take into account the gilt edged pensions schemes.

Masomnia

So what's the opposite of a 'jobless recovery'?

Thrugelmir

RenovationMan wrote: »

Isn't the growth in the private sector due to low paid and part time jobs, while well paid and fulltime jobs were being lost in the public sector?

A job is a job. Better than the dole.

Given that the Public Sector became unsustainable, being well paid or full time has no foundation. The economy will adjust over time to what the country can afford.

Certainly not all doom and gloom. As the resurgence in the Motor Industry demonstrates. As shows that the quality of UK engineering output is in demand around the world.

Shame that under Labour a million jobs in manufacturing were lost. While the public sector became bloated and inefficient.

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

Apologies to all as I think I forecast a fall of 0.4%. God does that mean I'm turning bull.
Who'd have thought it, me being optimistic on the state of the UK economy. :eek:

10/10 for shortchanged!

The UK economy contracted by less than thought in the second quarter, official figures have shown.

The economy shrank by 0.4% in the April-to-June period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in its third estimate of gross domestic product (GDP).

The ONS had initially estimated a contraction of 0.7%, before revising that to 0.5% last month.

Now falls within my own forecasted figure 0% plus or minus a bit too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19740370

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

10/10 for shortchanged!



Now falls within my own forecasted figure 0% plus or minus a bit too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19740370

...and if the ONS had factored in the extra days bank holiday, (generally accepted to have been worth 0.5% of GDP) the double dip recession wouldn't have happened.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

...and if the ONS had factored in the extra days bank holiday, (generally accepted to have been worth 0.5% of GDP) the double dip recession wouldn't have happened.

And if the ONS had managed to measure RPI properly which is used to calculate the GDP deflator properly then we wouldn't be talking about public holidays!

The apparent inaccuracy in the measurement of the RPI accounts for almost all of the loss of GDP that pushed the UK into recession for the second time. It wouldn't make the UK's economy a bed of roses but it explains why unemployment is ok-ish while GDP has been a horror story.

michaels

Rinoa wrote: »

...and if the ONS had factored in the extra days bank holiday, (generally accepted to have been worth 0.5% of GDP) the double dip recession wouldn't have happened.

Except that this was q3 of the recession, remember how the govt tried to manufacture a fuel crisis to achieve positive growth in q1.

Graham_Devon

Rinoa wrote: »

...and if the ONS had factored in the extra days bank holiday, (generally accepted to have been worth 0.5% of GDP) the double dip recession wouldn't have happened.

Yes it would. 2 quarters = recession.

worldtraveller

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Q3. I'm expecting a bit of a rebound to +0.5, even +0.7, but my fear is that we will then see declines again in Q4 and Q1 2013, leading to a triple-dip recession (That is, as I've said before, if we ever really came out of the 2008/9 recession).

wotsthat

worldtraveller wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Q3. I'm expecting a bit of a rebound to +0.5, even +0.7, but my fear is that we will then see declines again in Q4 and Q1 2013, leading to a triple-dip recession (That is, as I've said before, if we ever really came out of the 2008/9 recession).

It's either zero growth or something so close to it that it's not possible to really tell the difference.

Only the words will change - "UK escapes recession" or "recession continues".

A triple-dip will cause some excitement for the headline writers though.