UK GDP Preliminary Estimate Q2 2012 -0.7%

GeorgeHowell

There has been at least a decade of debt-fuelled boom -- private and public -- and now it has to be paid back in order to stave off national bankruptcy.

What does anyone expect ?

Think about it.

undetterred

Long may it continue IR are going no where.

ILW

wotsthat wrote: »

To be honest I can't 'feel' the difference between -0.1%, +0.1% or -0.7% so I'm not sure what this means to real people.

There are no real solutions either - books have to be balanced and debts repaid or refinanced. That's going to drag on GDP but it doesn't mean (I hope) that the government are doing nothing - they could argue that they are positioning the economy to be better equipped to take advantage of future opportunities. It's going to be a hard grind and at least they've seen that blaming everything on Gordon Brown was getting a bit tired so they've replaced Gordon Brown with the Eurozone.

From my own personal viewpoint I was hoping for a couple of quarters of tiny positive growth just so the more gloomy members of the forum could start getting excited about a triple dip recession.

If people could accept that and get on with things, I think we would all be a lot happier.
If my standard of living were to drop by 0.5% I do not think I would even notice.

Rinoa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hate to say I told you so.

Actually I don't hate to say it. I told you so.

Care to link to where you forecast negative growth for Q2, and what's your prediction for Q3 and Q4.

shortchanged_2

Pete111 wrote: »

Lots of commentators were preemptively casting doubt on the expected figures when compared against stats liek falling unemployment - given these are far worse than expected, something seems wrong here.


Analysis Ian King
Last updated at 8:03PM, July 23 2012


Britain was still in recession in the second quarter of the year — at least, that is what official statistics should confirm tomorrow. Yet there is cause to doubt this.

First, there is the survey data. Every month, the Purchasing Marketing Index (PMI) is published for the manufacturing, services and construction sectors. This a survey of companies giving a guide to what is happening in the economy, as measured by indicators like new orders, stock levels and employment.

Anything over 50 indicates growth and anything below it, contraction. During January, February and March, each survey for each sector was positive, yet the first quarter GDP data still pointed to negative growth. Plainly, both cannot be right.
The PMIs paint a mixed picture for the second quarter, with services — the biggest single part of the economy — enjoying growth in each of April, May and June, although manufacturing contracted in May and June and construction, which was positive in April and May, contracted in June.

The second reason to doubt the official figures is the content of the reports prepared by the Bank of England’s regional agents, the Bank’s eyes and ears in the “real” economy. During the first three months of the year, the reports pointed to somewhat stronger activity in the first quarter than suggested by the official data, leading some on the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee in May to doubt the latter.

The third and strongest reason to doubt the official figures is the startlingly robust jobs figures. During the three months to the end of May, the number of people in work rose by 181,000 to just under 30 million, the highest for nearly four years.
Admittedly, that is partly due to an “Olympics effect”, as a third of those jobs were in London. But the fact remains that, since September, nearly a net quarter of a million more people have found work despite the job losses taking place in the public sector. That is just not consistent with an economy in recession.

The danger is that, as and when the numbers are revised higher, it will not receive anything like as much attention in the media. In the meantime, the danger is that we will end up talking ourselves into another recession. A real one.

Do you honestly believe what you saying?

I have a question for people out there.

Are all the people who are/have been positive about the UK economy from the South East and London......oops sorry, Aberdeen as well?

I have a feeling that all the bullish posters are from that region. Am I wrong?

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

I have a feeling that all the bullish posters are from that region. Am I wrong?

Depends what you mean by bullish. My 'forecasts' are based on 0% plus or minus a bit. If that counts as bullish then yes you are wrong.

shortchanged_2

wotsthat wrote: »

Depends what you mean by bullish. My 'forecasts' are based on 0% plus or minus a bit. If that counts as bullish then yes you are wrong.

I think we can safely class you as a bullish poster by nature wotsthat. Are you from the South East region wotsthat?

ILW

shortchanged wrote: »

Do you honestly believe what you saying?

I have a question for people out there.

Are all the people who are/have been positive about the UK economy from the South East and London......oops sorry, Aberdeen as well?

I have a feeling that all the bullish posters are from that region. Am I wrong?

If things are so much better in London and the South East, why do all the Northerners not just start acting like Southerners?

Conrad

shortchanged wrote: »

Do you honestly believe what you saying?

I have a question for people out there.

The poster merely highlighted contradictory information in employment.

In terms of my own local experience here in the South East, for possibly the first time ever, almost everyone is moaning about slow business and reduced income.

shortchanged_2

No way Conrad, are you serious!! :eek: