Jupiter India - Thoughts?

Newbie2saving

Hi all,

I have a small portfolio which is my risk pot, it was and is my way of learning about the world of investments. I have a mix of OEICS, share (just the one company), ITs, and a Vanguard LS.

One of the funds which has taken quite a hit is the Jupiter India fund. Instead of spreading my risk and buying into an emerging market fund with exposure to a number of countries, at the time I went for this. I feel that this wasn't the best choice. I am not one to worry about market shifts and a 20-30% fall I can handle (as one of my shares and ITs currently are), but does anyone have any thoughts / experiences of selling a fund which is at a loss to try and make up a gain elsewhere or should I ride it out? Not sure if I am still buying the thought process of India rocketing and if my thoughts have changed, should I not change my portfolio to suit? I am still relatively new to investing so appreciate any knowledge out there!

Thanks in advance.

Jegersmart

Newbie2saving wrote: »

Hi all,

I have a small portfolio which is my risk pot, it was and is my way of learning about the world of investments. I have a mix of OEICS, share (just the one company), ITs, and a Vanguard LS.

One of the funds which has taken quite a hit is the Jupiter India fund. Instead of spreading my risk and buying into an emerging market fund with exposure to a number of countries, at the time I went for this. I feel that this wasn't the best choice. I am not one to worry about market shifts and a 20-30% fall I can handle (as one of my shares and ITs currently are), but does anyone have any thoughts / experiences of selling a fund which is at a loss to try and make up a gain elsewhere or should I ride it out? Not sure if I am still buying the thought process of India rocketing and if my thoughts have changed, should I not change my portfolio to suit? I am still relatively new to investing so appreciate any knowledge out there!

Thanks in advance.

This is always why it is important to have a plan. I am invested in India in a minor way - perhaps a 1.6% exposure overall and indeed this part of my portfolio is down a little over 20% or so. Personally I am looking for an opportunity to buy more as I think India will grow well over the next decade although there are some issues there at the moment. In my opinion I can see a further 5-8% downside to India equities at the moment so will probably buy (allocate more) India again if we see a 5%+ decline from current levels.

Having said that, a lot of equity markets are correlated and I feel the SPX and DJI need some further correction in the next quarter or so (failing to make new highs etc) - so I am probably going to be staying largely out of equities until I see sub 1200 on SPX.....but there are certain opportunities out there that I may buy in the meantime. I may start to allocate some funds to natural resources/commodities soon as they have taken a hammering over the past year or so. Likewise, Europe is starting to look a little attractive - but I would like to see some fear/capitulation before I start to get serious about that.

I hope this helps in a general sense, certainly I would not be tempted to seel underperforming India focussed investments currently - I would personally buy more after a further 5% drop *unless* we see some sell-offs on the US and other major indices as this will probably drag others down with them...

Alll very imho of course:)

Good luck

J

srcandas

wales100 wrote: »

Statics show those who sell falling funds with the aim of buying other funds to make up for losses, tend to be the biggest losers in the stock market game.

But if you base you decisions on such 'niceties' you may as well buy a tracker

If you want to invest in a weighted porfolio then you are applying some sort of judgement. Presumably you felt India was a better bet than say Thailand for a specific reason. The fact the fund has run in the opposite direction to your expectation demonstrates that either:

the data you originally had was false
or
that some of that data has changed or been impacted by external factors.

IMHO now is a time for you to assess that investment again. Re-research. Ensure you are honest with yourself and do not become emotionally attached to your previous decision.

Of course if you now think that Thailand has a 20+% growth potential over India then you need to look at the cost of changing horses. However if you think Thailand has 0.5+% growth potential and the cost of changing horses is 1.5% then you may decide still to remain with India.

If your research shows that you original thinking was not only strategically correct but is still valid, and that the drop is due to unforeseen short-term tactical issues then, if you have the stomach for it then throw more money in. This is afterall your risk pot

Wales is correct in the sense most investments go in waves. If you wait long enough most spread investments (in this case presumably spread across Indian equities) will recover to some degree. But while you wait you may be missing out on strong growth elsewhere.

Over tinkering can be bad but flogging a dead horse :eek:

ps: Just my personal view I'd run with India a while longer as I recon it is as well set to move when the upturn begins as similar options :beer:

dunstonh

The India fund is volatile. It will be for many many decades yet. It is why it is classed as a very high risk fund. It is a fund of high potential but it will go through very big swings at times.

I am not one to worry about market shifts and a 20-30% fall I can handle

The fund is capable of 70% losses. Can you handle that?

Linton

Newbie2saving wrote: »

Hi all,

I have a small portfolio which is my risk pot, it was and is my way of learning about the world of investments. I have a mix of OEICS, share (just the one company), ITs, and a Vanguard LS.

One of the funds which has taken quite a hit is the Jupiter India fund. Instead of spreading my risk and buying into an emerging market fund with exposure to a number of countries, at the time I went for this. I feel that this wasn't the best choice. I am not one to worry about market shifts and a 20-30% fall I can handle (as one of my shares and ITs currently are), but does anyone have any thoughts / experiences of selling a fund which is at a loss to try and make up a gain elsewhere or should I ride it out? Not sure if I am still buying the thought process of India rocketing and if my thoughts have changed, should I not change my portfolio to suit? I am still relatively new to investing so appreciate any knowledge out there!

Thanks in advance.

Changing a fund purely because it has made a loss is a guaranteed strategy for losing money overall as you will always be selling for less than you paid.

In my view India is a good bet for the long term future - think 10-20 years - but will be very volatile in the mean time. I therefore hold a small % of my portfolio in an Indian fund.

If you are investing for this sort of time period and share my belief in India then current falls provide an opportunity to buy not sell. If either of these conditions does not apply to you then you shouldnt have made that investment in the first place and would be best advised to switch to something more appropriate.

Newbie2saving

Really interesting discussion thanks for your input.

I wasn't thinking about changing this due to it's loss alone, but like I mentioned, maybe a change in direction.

Dunstonh - a 70% loss, ouch, this is money though that I set aside as part of the learning curve, that would be a steep one to slide down though

I initally jumped into investing with an old ISA, and have since added a new ISA allowance to it. I was easily (and stupidly) caught up in Hl's marketing, hence I also own Mr Bolton's failing China SS IT. I do believe India has a long way to go, but thought it may be worth pulling out and spreading the risk to a more balanced emerging fund such as First State Global Emerging Market Leaders.

The period of investment is at least 15-25 years so I am not in a rush to pull out, just thought it was an appropriate time to ask the question - I'm still learning! Maybe the hard way!!!

dunstonh

Dunstonh - a 70% loss, ouch, this is money though that I set aside as part of the learning curve, that would be a steep one to slide down though

that is why specialist funds tend to only have a small allocation in portfolios. Typically you would be looking at 2-10% as the amount allocated to specialist funds depending on your risk profile.

hence I also own Mr Bolton's failing China SS IT.

Another one with 70% loss potential.

Potential doesnt mean it will happen. Just that it is in the sort of range where it is a fair possibility and a figure in that range likely to happen at some point. China did have a loss of that scale in the past (check out Henderson China Opps history and you will see a 65% loss and 50% loss in the recent past).

srcandas

Just a thought from reading this interesting discussion:

If you re-evaluate your investments at their current value, forgetting loses already made, you might see you have ownership of a broad range of equity in regions (like India and China) which have great potential for growth. I think at today's prices you might say that it represents a good investment with good potential for the future (possibly a double of your money in 5 years would not be wild dreaming). Along side these you have a less volatile counter balance with Vanguard LS.

What you paid for them is rather irrelevant without a time machine

And errors like the Bolton experiment will not only be good learning but also will be counter balanced by some cracking 'nothing but up' decisions in the next 15 to 25 years

[ ps: Another thought is have you looked at emerging market debt as a counter balance to heavy equity risk? ]

:beer:

Newbie2saving

Right now I am getting confused!!! Give me a little while to have a think on that one srcandas!

dunstonh - with regards to this 'risk pot' the Jupiter fund is just under 8% of my total against todays valuation, but overall it represents <1% I don't manage my other pot, that is much more cautious, this was for me to try and learn the ropes as such - not doing a great job so far!

Will run my portfolio through x-ray and see how it fairs - maybe buying opportunities within current funds I own.

srandas - Do you really think Fidelitys China SS is 'nothing but up'? I am not convinced, hence it is one of the 'funds' I haven't added any further capital to this ISA year as I feel like I may be flogging a dead horse.

I will be back...

Newbie2saving

Just did a quick x-ray and got the following results;

Greater Europe 48.44% (UK being 31.38%)
Americas 20% (with USA being 17.1%)
Greater Asia 31.56% (Emerging Asia ex 4 tigers 17.63%)

Not much holding overlap, with HSBC being the highest at 0.5%, good range of stock styles with large value blend and growth in and around 20% each.

I am well aware this isn't a balanced portfolio, it is a risky one and although I wanted to learn the ropes, I also wanted to try a riskier approach, hence it doesn't necessarily reflect well when looking at it as a stand alone pot.

Not thought about emerging world debt and have no idea to be honest how to even begin to consider it!

I have added in VG LS this year to try and have a broader range of assets, yet still with a riskier edge with the 80% one. I am in my early 30's so thinking this is the most suitable for me.

srcandas

Newbie2saving wrote: »

srandas - Do you really think Fidelitys China SS is 'nothing but up'? I am not convinced, hence it is one of the 'funds' I haven't added any further capital to this ISA year as I feel like I may be flogging a dead horse..

My reference to nothing but up was for future decisions that you will make in the future.

My brother went in heavy on Mr Bolton (£60k) so it is close to my heart. I believe Mr Bolton knows something about investing and is basically an honest man. What his China fund proves is that you cannot transfer skills easily especially where different cultures exist. I remember the football chairman (Doncaster I think) who thought as a very successful manager he could manage a football team. And Alan Sugar who thought he could manager the Venables factor using his undoubted managerial and sales skills. Both failed in spectacular fashion. In the case of Mr Bolton he does admit he made mistakes and he believes he has learned a chinese thing or two. However against that rests heavily that he may well soon jump ship (and depending on who takes the helm will determine if that is good or bad). If I was in small I'd ride it out as I think he is sitting on not much more downside and I also feel the Chinese will stimulate internal growth. But that said I know probably less about China than Mr Bolton did when he entered the game.

For EM debt have a look at Aberdeen EM Bond or Investec EM Local Currency debt. But be careful as some think these have had a good run of late and could be due a fall. Personally they have helped me out with gains against EM equity falls so are just the counter I like.

Not a recommendation but have a look at Oceanic Australian Natural Resources GBP. It is very high risk but but I think it will do well in a recovery and just read the CV of the fund manager. I just like the fact he has been in the industry at the sharp end. He might lose me a lot of money but he is a good illustration of the other end of the scale from Mr Bolton.

:beer: