Census 2011: UK at 63.1 million, up 4 million in 10 years

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The first results from the 2011 census show that the population of England and Wales surged by 3.7 million in the last decade – or 7.1 per cent – to 56.1 million people.

When the census results for Northern Ireland and an estimate for Scotland are taken into account the UK population stands at an estimated 63.1 million people – up four million in the last decade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9403215/Census-2011-population-surges-by-3.7-million-in-a-decade.html

And 2 million more than the latest estimates expected.

And that, boys and girls, above all else, is the reason for house prices being where they are.

Not once in 10 years did we build enough houses to keep up with new household formation.

Population soared at the highest rate in history, while house building has fallen to the lowest level in a century.

It really isn't any more complicated than that.

All those elaborate myths about credit, liar loans, BTL, etc etc etc are mostly just utter nonsense. Any part they played was vanishingly small at best.

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9403215/Census-2011-population-surges-by-3.7-million-in-a-decade.html

And 2 million more than the latest estimates expected.

And that, boys and girls, above all else, is the reason for house prices being where they are.

Not once in 10 years did we build enough houses to keep up with new household formation.

Population soared at the highest rate in history, while house building has fallen to the lowest level in a century.

It really isn't any more complicated than that.

All those elaborate myths about credit, liar loans, BTL, etc etc etc are mostly just utter nonsense. Any part they played was vanishingly small at best.

And despite all the bull, house prices are falling!

This is because:

Demand ¹ Number of people wanting houses

UK house prices slashed as sellers outnumber buyers

http://www.themovechannel.com/news/02c6ef46-0638/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

macaque wrote: »

And despite all the bull, house prices are falling!

How many times macaque..... Prices don't go up in a straight line.

We've been seeing minor fluctuations both up and down for 3 years now, but the market has stagnated while it takes a breather before the next big leg up.

And looking at the phenomenal population growth, that next leg up is going to be bigger than even I expected it to be.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It really isn't any more complicated than that.

Well it is, as while we didn't build 4 million new homes, we did convert a hell of a lot of homes from larger homes, into seperate flats.

I've said this to you before and you simply glossed over.

For instance, one care home was converted into 32 flats near myself. So while 32 NEW builds were not created, 32 homes were. 32 which you simply ignore.

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And looking at the phenomenal population growth, that next leg up is going to be bigger than even I expected it to be.

I am bullish on long term house prices, but I think it's yet to be seen if there will be HPI as seen between 1996 and 2007.

The reason why I don't see it is because credit is not so easily available.

What I see is less home owners and more renters.
BTL will continue to expand and probably we will see more headcount per property (more people sharing / more staying at home)

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well it is, as while we didn't build 4 million new homes, we did convert a hell of a lot of homes from larger homes, into seperate flats.

I've said this to you before and you simply glossed over.

For instance, one care home was converted into 32 flats near myself. So while 32 NEW builds were not created, 32 homes were. 32 which you simply ignore.

Are you sure these were not counted?
I'd consider that as these 32 flats were sold off, they get entered into the LR database as new properties.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Are you sure these were not counted?
I'd consider that as these 32 flats were sold off, they get entered into the LR database as new properties.

I'm certain in terms of what Hamish describes.

wotsthat

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What I see is less home owners and more renters. BTL will continue to expand and probably we will see more headcount per property (more people sharing / more staying at home)

That's exactly how I'd see things panning out for a while. The increasing headcount will put an upwards pressure on rents and therefore prices but I doubt there will be a boom in prices.

Graham_Devon

The other point is that immigration does not bring the neccesary money to buy houses. Hence it's BTL leaning on benefits that the biggest factor here.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The other point is that immigration does not bring the neccesary money to buy houses. .

Wow. Nothing like a good immigrant stereotype, eh Graham.

Actually, many immigrants do come here with the necessary money to buy a house and also for high enough paying jobs to pay a mortgage.

But even for the rest, it makes not the slightest bit of difference whether the money is paid to a bank to pay off a mortgage, or to a landlord to pay to a bank to pay off a mortgage.

2 workers in a house can afford twice the rent or mortgage payment of 1 worker in a house.

2 benefits claimants in a house can afford twice the rent of 1 benefits claimant in a house.

And as we don't build enough houses, by definition more people have to live in the ones we do build.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm certain in terms of what Hamish describes.

Hmmmm. Seems like they might be counted.
'New Build' whilst the largest component of the net housing supply statistics, is not the only component.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/2145660.pdf

Related statistics
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]

Net supply of housing

[/FONT][/FONT]The annual [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Net supply of housing [/FONT][/FONT]statistics, also known as ‘net additions’, show the absolute change in dwelling stock between 1 April and 31 March the following year. They comprise the number of new build permanent dwellings; plus the net gain from dwelling conversions; plus the net gain of non dwellings brought into residential use; plus net additions from other gains and losses to the dwelling stock (such as mobile and temporary dwellings); less any demolitions.


.....


The longer data collection period makes it possible to compile a more complete picture of housing supply over the period; including conversions, change of use and demolitions.