The Most Important Document You Will Never Read....

chewmylegoff

wotsthat wrote: »

There's waste on an epic scale happening within public finances.

A handful of people from this board and a spare afternoon could bring the public finances into a better position.

Yeah, but a different handful of people from this board and a spare 5 minutes could turn us into Greece.

chewmylegoff

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think that it will be means tested because people have paid into it. But I do think at some point they will stop increasing it in line with inflation, this would be less bitter pill for the public to swallow. This would of course create the need for a benefit top up for those who couldn't manage (which would of course be means tested).

Except no one has "paid into it" and the some government will just have to admit that was all a lie. Employee NI contributions don't even cover the basic state pension payments let alone all the other things they supposedly cover. The state pension will just become a benefit paid to those who cannot afford to fund their own living in due course (just like all other benefits).

chewmylegoff

wotsthat wrote: »

Finding yourself in retirement with only the state pension to live on sounds like a nightmare. Most sensible people should be saving like mad to avoid this living hell rather than worrying about effective taxation rates.

Anyone who decides to spend everything they have and rely on state hand outs when they retire is going to be a bit disappointed with their standard of living, methinks! This will be exascerbated because they will be used to a higher standard of living than someone who had saved part of their income.

mystic_trev

RenovationMan wrote: »

I'm a higher rate taxpayer and so any money I put into a pension plan receives tax relief at 40%. When I actually retire, I can take 25% tax free

I somehow doubt it, unless you're retiring in the next few years, this will be the next thing to go.

RenovationMan

mystic_trev wrote: »

I somehow doubt it, unless you're retiring in the next few years, this will be the next thing to go.

Perhaps, and the next will be higher rate tax relief, but they have totuing that for decades, and yet here we still are. I'd imagine they would bring in a rule that you can only take out the 25% if your remaining funds are over a set threshold and can therefore supply you with a decent enough income.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

Population ageing will put upward pressure on public spending.

It will.

pensioners can't receive the money they have been promised as there isn't enough money to pay them.

Indeed.

But not paying them is not an option, in a democracy where pensioners vote at higher turnout rates than any other segment of society.

So they will be paid.

The question then becomes, who or what else will not be paid the money they've been promised so that pensioners can be....

And the answer lies here.....

Add to that the fact that the UK Government spent 3% of GDP in 2011 on Gilt coupons (interest on Government borrowing), a figure that is likely to rise as debt rises,

Just think for a minute what percentage of the total national debt is now owned by an entity that is in fact a part of government, owned by the state, although theoretically independently managed.

Then consider what percentage of the interest payments on the national debt the government is effectively paying to itself.

And there you'll find the answer to the question of who or what else will not get paid so that pensioners can be.

This is central to my position on house and other asset prices in the UK over the next few decades: The result? They will have to sell their assets. For most people their most valuable asset is their house.

Perhaps time to reconsider that position.

I wouldn't bet against an increasingly organised and influential voting block..... Don't let yourself get distracted by the handful of Werthers Originals.... There's nothing sweet about a granny threatened with losing her pension.;)

Generali wrote: »

Part of the central case for the OBR is that net migration halves

And the results of their case pretty much ensure it now won't.

DervProf

RenovationMan wrote: »

You want to buy shares when they are low, not when they are booming.

Blimey, that is pure genius.

pqrdef

What this all ignores is the potential for emerging new technology to improve productivity.

lisyloo

and if in their position, would have wanted the dignitas option years before the state wasted a fortune on me

Paul - I think you are being serious so I'll bite.
Whatever your beliefs the majority will not or can not kill themselves.
Some people believe it's a sin and others simply don't have the guts.
I see the sense in what you are saying but it's not going to happen on a large scale.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

...because it's 162 pages long

http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/FSR2012WEB.pdf

The short version is contained in a single paragraph:

Add to that the fact that the UK Government spent 3% of GDP in 2011 on Gilt coupons (interest on Government borrowing), a figure that is likely to rise as debt rises, the outlook is bleak for Government finances.

This is central to my position on house and other asset prices in the UK over the next few decades: pensioners can't receive the money they have been promised as there isn't enough money to pay them. The result? They will have to sell their assets. For most people their most valuable asset is their house.

How many couples/singles are going to want to eat cold baked beans while living in a £300,000 place in SE England? Better to move to Northern France or Northern England and release some of that capital.

If you want a pinch of salt with that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

You're probably right, but they just seem to rent the properties out if they can't sell for the prices they think they should get.

If the rental market fell then there probably would be some more downward pressure on house prices, for the time being though the UK seems to be becoming a two tier society of the property haves, and the renting have nots.

Its morally repugnant, but thats England for you.