House prices will not recover to their 2007 peak until 2024

IveSeenTheLight

Tezy wrote: »

Why is everyone saying we are half way through this crash? No one knows the future that much, all we know is the bottom is a long way off yet. It could be 5yrs it could be another 12yrs.

It is not going to be over quickly.

Hi Tezy, welcome to the forum.
In context with this thread, the OP link is saying that the bottom (in nominal terms) has already past and that nominally, prices will be back at peak in 2017.
In real terms, house prices are predicted to have recovered it's 'real term' value by 2024.

macaque_2

RenovationMan wrote: »

And then some.

I thought the 70% club was all about predicting 70% drops, not stagnation for a decade? Perhaps I misunderstood?

The bulls seem to be capitulating slowly and gracelessly.

My position and that of many others has been that this is going to be a long slow decline. We've seen it before in Japan. At my time on HPC, my best bet was that this could be a 20-40 year bear market. There is a chance of a fast fall, this is in the hands of the government.

RenovationMan

macaque wrote: »

The bulls seem to be capitulating slowly and gracelessly.

My position and that of many others has been that this is going to be a long slow decline. We've seen it before in Japan. At my time on HPC, my best bet was that this could be a 20-40 year bear market. There is a chance of a fast fall, this is in the hands of the government.

Have you held this position long?

Can you post a link to where you first proposed this long, slow decline?

EDIT: Apologies! You did indeed say this!

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=28158933&postcount=4

"I have not said that at any time. The 70% club's official position is that there will 70% falls over the next 10-20 years."

I remember now. The 70% club was one of the first things I read on here:

RenovationMan wrote: »

Yay, another Macaque 70% club thread. He is fast becoming my favourite poster, I love reading this stuff. Brilliant fun!

wotsthat

macaque wrote: »

My position and that of many others has been that this is going to be a long slow decline. We've seen it before in Japan. At my time on HPC, my best bet was that this could be a 20-40 year bear market. There is a chance of a fast fall, this is in the hands of the government.

Are you waiting to buy? 20 - 40 years seems like a long wait.

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

As far as opening post goes I was not trying to be bullish or bearish, it was just an article I found interesting, unlike you I always try to keep an open mind, wanting something and and thinking something is going to happen are two completely different things.

There has been a mellowing to your bearish stance. Have you put in a crafty offer on that place you viewed?

RenovationMan

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I always try to keep an open mind, wanting something and and thinking something is going to happen are two completely different things.

Pity some others don't share your standpoint. Some people, can you believe it, can't understand the difference between these:

1. Wanting something to happen.
2. Needing something to happen.
3. Benefitting from something happening.

Apparently these statements all mean the same thing and are interchangeable. :cool:

macaque_2

wotsthat wrote: »

Are you waiting to buy? 20 - 40 years seems like a long wait.

No, I am not waiting to buy although I will buy as/if/when my business takes off. In that case, I would buy irrespective of the state of the housing market.

macaque_2

RenovationMan wrote: »

Have you held this position long?
Can you post a link to where you first proposed this long, slow decline
EDIT: Apologies! You did indeed say this!

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=28158933&postcount=4

"I have not said that at any time. The 70% club's official position is that there will 70% falls over the next 10-20 years."

I remember now. The 70% club was one of the first things I read on here:

Sorry, I didn't mean sound harsh. It is just that I have always believed that the market fall will be a long slow process like Japan (unless interest rates are forced up). Modern UK governments are terrified of fast house price corrections.

the_flying_pig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Hi Tezy, welcome to the forum.
In context with this thread, the OP link is saying that the bottom (in nominal terms) has already past and that nominally, prices will be back at peak in 2017.
In real terms, house prices are predicted to have recovered it's 'real term' value by 2014.

2024, not 2014.

all that the 2017 says is, from peak, 10 years nominal to get back. sounds a bit arbitrary & plucked-out-of-the-air to me.

armour

Nominal terms I still see a fall coming more than we have already seen since 2007, unless that is they start trying to inflate our problems away, at that point I am in the !!!!.

Isn't that exactly what they (gov/BoE) are doing?
I think a high inflation policy has been followed for quite some time now and probably will be for a good few years more.
Anybody know what the cumulative amount of inflation has been over the last 3 or 4 years?