House prices will not recover to their 2007 peak until 2024

System

30% in 8 years, it's actually quite bullish if you ask me.

moneyinmypocket

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Did I

And what evidence do you base that on?

Because you rent and at current prices can't afford a house to buy so you are holding out for a crash/dip

moneyinmypocket

Your prob a decent bloke outside of housing talk so I am not attacking your character - its just the side of fence you sit on

RenovationMan

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Why?
It's not predicting that prices will lower?

Well, lowering due to the effects of inflation, but then the same inflation will eat at people's ability to build up deposits and low interest rates will prevent those deposits from growing.

I assume that if they are forecasting a 10 year slump in the housing market that they are also predicting that we'll have the same slump in the economy (as both seem to go hand in hand). The knock on effect of this will be low BoE rates for many more years.

Not much cheer to be taken from this by the 'bears' because it's just stagnation. Not much cheer for new buyers as they can't get decent trackers. Looks like the winners are those on low BoE lifetime trackers.

If this time scale is correct, it looks as though the next housing boom will coincide with my plans to downsize (in 20 years). We'll see, but in the meantime I'm going to continue my plan of mortgage overpayment and house renovation.

homelessskilledworker

So many people(MSE bulls) just won't open their eyes and see what is staring them in the face, and some are even agreeing with bears(without knowing it) when they say that many sellers will just sit it out.

The time from the peak(2007) to the point this article claims prices will recover is the amount prices should have dropped when you take inflation into account. Say inflation goes up 35% from 2007 to 2024, then that is the level prices should have fallen.

Still my biggest worry which I can see a huge threat and even an argument for doing it is to inflate away all the debt problems more rapidly than they are doing now, if they do that then I am !!!!!!ed:)

homelessskilledworker

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

Your prob a decent bloke outside of housing talk so I am not attacking your character - its just the side of fence you sit on

That's cool!!

And not without an element of truth.

But what some mse Bulls need to remember is that I have sisters and family and friendS who will be hurt in a crash, there is nothing funny I se about that. But at the end of the day you have to look after your own welfare.

And besides whatever I do or say It will have zero impact on property prices.

RenovationMan

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

So many people(MSE bulls) just won't open their eyes and see what is staring them in the face, and some are even agreeing with bears(without knowing it) when they say that many sellers will just sit it out.

I'm no expert in all this, but I thought the 'bull' stance was that house prices wouldn't crash because people would just sit tight and wait for a recovery? This report seems to back up their theory of stagnation?

If that's right, then surely the bulls do have their eyes open and can see what is starting them in the face? And what they are looking at is their correct prediction?

If the analysis in this report is correct, then one could argue that the 'bears' are the ones who perhaps need to open their eyes and see what is staring them in the face, especially those still waiting for a major housing crash.

I don't see what stagnation does for them, unless they are still saving up deposits.

IveSeenTheLight

RenovationMan wrote: »

Well, lowering due to the effects of inflation,

Re-reading the quote

the accounting firm predicted that the economy will flat-line this year before growing just 1.7pc in 2013. Average house prices will have bounced back to their 2007 high in cash terms by 2017, PwC said, but will need another seven years to catch up with inflation.

By 2020, headline prices will be up 30pc but still 7pc below their real terms peak.

So a small 'real term' reduction in value in the coming year, but nominally back to peack in 5 years time and back to inflation adjusted 'real term' peack value of 2007 by 2024 (12 years)

That is pretty bullish if you ask me.

IveSeenTheLight

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

The time from the peak(2007) to the point this article claims prices will recover is the amount prices should have dropped when you take inflation into account. Say inflation goes up 35% from 2007 to 2024, then that is the level prices should have fallen.

That's not what your quote said.

It said back to nominal peak by 2017 and back to 'real term' value by 2024.

They are not predicting a 'real term' value difference in 2024

wotsthat

I think that might be the most bullish thing Foxy's ever posted.

5 years to nominal peaks and 12 years to real peaks.

All works really well for me - thanks for posting OP.