House prices will not recover to their 2007 peak until 2024

chucknorris

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

House prices will not recover their pre-crisis peak until 2024, according to analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The warning that the UK housing market is only at the start of a 17-year, inflation-adjusted slump came as the accounting firm predicted that the economy will flat-line this year before growing just 1.7pc in 2013. Average house prices will have bounced back to their 2007 high in cash terms by 2017, PwC said, but will need another seven years to catch up with inflation. By 2020, headline prices will be up 30pc but still 7pc below their real terms peak.

I think its quite possible they will never reach 2007 prices in real terms and have said so several times eg:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/53731239#Comment_53731239

You are much more bullish about the market than I am if you think that.

homelessskilledworker

wotsthat wrote: »

I think that might be the most bullish thing Foxy's ever posted.

5 years to nominal peaks and 12 years to real peaks.

All works really well for me - thanks for posting OP.

As far as opening post goes I was not trying to be bullish or bearish, it was just an article I found interesting, unlike you I always try to keep an open mind, wanting something and and thinking something is going to happen are two completely different things.

For the record in real terms I don't think we will in our lifetimes see real prices anything like like 2007, 100 years even.
Nominal terms I still see a fall coming more than we have already seen since 2007, unless that is they start trying to inflate our problems away, at that point I am in the !!!!.

RenovationMan

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

For the record in real terms I don't think we will in our lifetimes see real prices anything like like 2007, 100 years even.

I thought London and parts of the South East had already increased beyond the 2007 peaks?

Dunno if this is true as i don't live there. I live in God's own country.

IveSeenTheLight

RenovationMan wrote: »

I live in God's own country.

I didn't realise you lived in Scotland.

British by birth, Scottish by the grace of God

When God had finished creating Scotland, He looked down on it with great satisfaction. Finally he called the Archangel Gabriel to have a look. "Just see," said God. "This is the best yet. Splendid mountains, beautiful scenery, brave men, fine women, nice cool weather. And I've given them beautiful music and a special drink called whisky. Try some."
Gabriel took an appreciative sip. "Excellent," he said. "But haven't you perhaps been too kind to them? Won't they be spoiled by all these things? Should there not be some drawback?"
"Just wait till you see the neighbours they're getting," said God.

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Relax, it's just a joke.

macaque_2

2024!!!! .... This is a bit of a kick in the shorts for the 'I'm investing for the long term' brigade (and exactly what the 70% club has been warning people about).

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

2024!!!! .... This is a bit of a kick in the shorts for the 'I'm investing for the long term' brigade (and exactly what the 70% club has been warning people about).

Try reading the quote again.
2024 is the year they predict a return to the 'real term' peak.
They expect nominal peak to be achieved by 2017.

So for those that bought at peak in 2007, they'll find that they're properties (on average) are back to the nominal value they paid 10 years earlier (in 2017).
They won't be in NE (as they will still have their deposit and 10 years payments)
They'll find that when they're 2/3's of the way through their mortgage, the property is back to 'real term' value.

I think this is not the message the 70% were claiming

IveSeenTheLight

Incidently (and I don't think this prediction will come true), surely this prediction means the the bubble of 2007 will be fully inflated again?

RenovationMan

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Incidently (and I don't think this prediction will come true), surely this prediction means the the bubble of 2007 will be fully inflated again?

And then some.

I thought the 70% club was all about predicting 70% drops, not stagnation for a decade? Perhaps I misunderstood?

Tezy

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

House prices will not recover their pre-crisis peak until 2024, according to analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The warning that the UK housing market is only at the start of a 17-year, inflation-adjusted slump came as the accounting firm predicted that the economy will flat-line this year before growing just 1.7pc in 2013. Average house prices will have bounced back to their 2007 high in cash terms by 2017, PwC said, but will need another seven years to catch up with inflation. By 2020, headline prices will be up 30pc but still 7pc below their real terms peak.

If the bottom of the market is that far away then it will have profound consiquenses.

The next generation will not believe any more that an Englishmans home is his castle

Tezy

mystic_trev wrote: »

Using their criteria, I reckon we're halfway through with another five years to go, not another twelve!

Why is everyone saying we are half way through this crash? No one knows the future that much, all we know is the bottom is a long way off yet. It could be 5yrs it could be another 12yrs.

It is not going to be over quickly.