Land Registry May +0.5% MoM +0.4% YoY

nollag2006

chucknorris wrote: »

I've already told you that I don't post on hpc (or any other economy forum), the only time that I have ever been on there (which is probably about 3 or 4 times for a few mins) is when I have clicked a link on a post on this website.

Let's look at this 'bull' label that I seem to have. I think property prices will fall in real terms but probably not in nominal terms over the next 2-3 years (i.e. stagnate nominally). I then think that there will be a slow pick up for 2-3 years (i.e. probably just keeping up with inflation), that gets us to about 2017 when I think price increases will start to pick up pace.

I really don't consider that a much of a bullish position, but maybe others do?

I can only speak to the London market, but I've long held that the first half of 2012 would be broadly flat with prices rising 5-8% over the second half.

I'd imagine we would see annual house price rises in London in the 5-10% region in 2013 and 2014 depending on the strength of this anaemic economic recovery.

With employment rates improving, QE, and money continuing to flow in from the Eurozone - I think this might be a conservative estimate.

chucknorris

nollag2006 wrote: »

I can only speak to the London market, but I've long held that the first half of 2012 would be broadly flat with prices rising 5-8% over the second half.

I'd imagine we would see annual house price rises in London in the 5-10% region in 2013 and 2014 depending on the strength of this anaemic economic recovery.

With employment rates improving, QE, and money continuing to flow in from the Eurozone - I think this might be a conservative estimate.

Well actually all of our properties (except our home) are in London too, and I have to admit that I am quite surprised at London's resilience. But I'm not convinced it can continue to outperform the rest of the country as it has done (but don't get me wrong of course I would like it to). I suppose I just tend to expect less but I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised.

I hope that you are proved right and I am proved wrong.