talk of end of year property crash in London...

BargainHunterCat

Like many first time buyers, I can't afford to buy anything right now so I really hope there is going to be some sort of down turn.
Whilst a price crash would serve my purpose, I don't want to see the misery of the last one again.
Here's for a soft landing!

Norroy

When I bought my first flat in Central London in 1997, people were asking me whether I was worried about buying at 'the top of the market'. That property has since risen in value by 200%.

The important thing is to know your area (and category of property) really well. Look for motivated sellers to get the best possible deal, and make sure you get the best finance deal available to you.

prudryden

The crash will come when we least expect it. But, it will come.

abaxas

prudryden wrote: »

The crash will come when we least expect it. But, it will come.

True, by the time you know it's here, it'll be too late to plan for it. Isnt this this what is happeneing over in the states? People weren't paying attention then suddenly their property was 'worth' 20-30% less.

Sisyphus

the way things are going over there some may be happy if they can get away with just -20 to -30%.

The question is is the UK housing market different enough not to be affected?

MickKnipfler

There'll be a crash when the country runs out of creative ideas to artifically keep demand up.

Norroy

MickKnipfler wrote: »

There'll be a crash when the country runs out of creative ideas to artifically keep demand up.

I have to disagree. In the future the UK will return to a situation where the majority of the population will live in rented accommodation (provided by the private sector) rather than be owner-occupiers.

The market will not collapse. The buy to let sector will become far more professional.There is rapidly increasing interest in this area from large institutions.I fully expect to see whole portfolios of proerties being traded between wealthy individuals and companies.

People who do want to buy, will have to be content to buy a share of a property in an area they can afford.

Sisyphus

Norroy wrote: »

I have to disagree. In the future the UK will return to a situation where the majority of the population will live in rented accommodation (provided by the private sector) rather than be owner-occupiers.

The market will not collapse. The buy to let sector will become far more professional.There is rapidly increasing interest in this area from large institutions.I fully expect to see whole portfolios of proerties being traded between wealthy individuals and companies.

People who do want to buy, will have to be content to buy a share of a property in an area they can afford.

:rolleyes: and what do they do with their portfolios when the country goes into a recession?

Norroy

The situation would be just the same as when the stockmarket falls, the pension funds take a hit.

If the property market falls many people will hold tight and wait for values to go back up. Many will even take the opportunity to 'buy on the dips'.

The early 90's recession was extremely unusual in that falling asset values and rising unemployment were accompanied by high interest rates.

Normally, the monetary authorities respond to a recession scenario by slashing rates in order to promote growth.

Nothing in life is risk-free, and that includes sitting on your hands whilst waiting for the market to crash.

As someone once said - don't wait to buy property, buy property and wait.

Generali

Norroy wrote: »

The situation would be just the same as when the stockmarket falls, the pension funds take a hit.

Not quite - you can't just take your money out of your pension.

Norroy wrote: »

If the property market falls many people will hold tight and wait for values to go back up. Many will even take the opportunity to 'buy on the dips'..

How? BTL loan to value of 85% or 90% with rent covering just 100% of the mortgage payments will be a thing of the past if there's a fall in prices.

Norroy wrote: »

The early 90's recession was extremely unusual in that falling asset values and rising unemployment were accompanied by high interest rates.

Not that unusual - the same thing happened in the early 80s recession and the early 1920s. The economic orthodoxy these days seems to be get rid of inflation first and worry about unemployment later. I read a great analysis about 2 years ago that said that any rise in inflation would be deflationary ultimately. I see nothing that has changed in the intervening period.