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Debate House Prices
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Predictions on next boom - how big?
Comments
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homelessskilledworker wrote: »This is the funniest thing I have read on this board to date.
Like I said then....
Beyond your comprehension.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Before the next boom I see lots of dead people.
Me included.
..._0 -
[QUOTE=HAMISH_MCTAVISH;53727797
But expect salary multiples of 8-12 times average male mean single income anywhere within a reasonable commute of an employment hub.
Of course, few singletons will be buying... There won't be enough houses for that.
Hence the market will ration the few there are by demanding a 5 times joint income or so price tag.
[/QUOTE]
Do you actually believe banks will lend at these levels again Hamish?
You don't feel they have learnt their lesson from what is happening now?
Look at Spain and Ireland Hamish to see what affect ridiculous housing booms can have on an economy.
What is needed is a return to price levels that are sensible that can be bought with sensible income multiples and for the banks to stick to that and hey presto, we have a functioning, sustainable housing market.0 -
shortchanged wrote: »Look at Spain and Ireland Hamish to see what affect ridiculous housing [STRIKE]booms[/STRIKE] surpluses can have on an economy.
Fixed that for you...What is needed is a return to price levels that are sensible that can be bought with sensible income multiples and for the banks to stick to that and hey presto, we have a functioning, sustainable housing market.
And how are you going to do that with a 2 million house shortage?
Lending restrictions can never prevent HPI.
They can only delay it for a while until people save the difference.
Where such a shortage exists, the market must ration the limited supply through price, until a sufficient number of people are priced out that they share the few houses available.
That process has barely begun in this country.
You've got the worst housing shortage in history, about to crash into the biggest wave of FTB age people in history. And there's no longer enough time to build sufficient houses.
The next boom is locked in already, and it's going to be a monster.
And largely because of the very things the bears on here supported, (like restricted mortgage lending and falling prices) leading to house building falling off a cliff.
So thanks for that.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I definitely think prices will head North again probably starting in about 3 years. But I am not convinced that they surpass or even reach the heights of 2007 (in real trems) but as that was extremely high I would be very pleased with about 95% of that price level. But obviously I hope Hamish's prediction is more accurate than mine.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0
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The problem I have in predicting this is that in the short term it looks like we are in for a substantial credit contraction due to the European mess. So, I think it is quite possible that in the short term house prices are going to fall. A lot in real terms (maybe 10% over the next three years).
In the long term, I think the UK governments policy is currently to substantially reduce planning permission hurdles to building. I think their policy has been to set off a construction boom.
But it doesn't look like their policy is going to work (due to credit contraction).
In which case, we will have a decade of substantially below par house construction, and demographics that are reasonably favourable to increased demand. So my long term forecast is about as bullish as it gets for me... a really substantial boom in fifteen years... my short term forecast is actually pretty bearish.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
It says a lot about the British attitude to house prices that after 5 years of real (inflation adjusted) houses prices falling pretty much every month most people don't even question the idea that there could be another bubble.
That, more than any economic indicator, says that there could well be another boom in prices.0 -
Well... it doesn't say necessarily that much about British attitudes, Generali. My investment strategy is to look for the car crashes and buy the blood.
I think house investments have been car crashes over the last five years. At some stage it will be time to buy the blood, but only when the opportunity has been fully drained.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Like I said then....
Beyond your comprehension.;)
Really?
Well at least we both now know where we stand, I am of the belief that what led up to the financial crisis and what is happening today which is causing bailout after bailout, austerity and recession that is hurting so many people is a mistake the whole of the western world is preventing from ever happening again.
You on the other hand simply think it is a pause.
Beyond my comprehension!!0 -
moneyinmypocket wrote: »I think end of this decade we will see house prices boom again. I missed out on the last boom but am looking forward to the ride next time.
Funny enough I agree with you, around the end of this decade the next boom will start, but property will be falling in value until then. We have a long way to go before we hit the bottom.The thing about chaos is, it's fair.0
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