Predictions on next boom - how big?

moneyinmypocket

I think end of this decade we will see house prices boom again. I missed out on the last boom but am looking forward to the ride next time.

DpchMd

Cool story bro

angrypirate

Shall we wait for the bust to play out first?

nollag2006

angrypirate wrote: »

Shall we wait for the bust to play out first?

You missed it.

It ended in April 2009.

MacMickster

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

I think end of this decade we will see house prices boom again. I missed out on the last boom but am looking forward to the ride next time.

I predict that the next big boom will take house prices up to almost 2004 levels - but they have a bit of a way to fall first.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

House prices are currently being artificially restrained thanks to mortgage rationing, but rents have soared to record highs instead, and house building has reached the lowest level in a century.

We've prevented well over a million potential FTB-s from buying houses since 2007 due to not giving them mortgages, and so in 90% of the UK rent is more than a mortgage would be.

65% of lending was removed from the market, yet prices are only down 10% or so.

And the biggest generation of FTB-s in history, bigger even than the boomers, is about to start reaching house buying age.

There are only 748,000 35 year olds this year, and that number will now climb every year until around 2025, when it peaks at nearly a million a year. The next generational trough is not until the mid 2030's, and even then it will bottom out at 100K more FTB age people a year than today.

Never again in our lifetimes will FTB-s have as little competition for housing as they do this year.

The long term trajectory for both house prices and rents can only go one way, and it ain't down...

The next boom is going to be a monster....

chewmylegoff

I agree the long term trajectory is upwards, but what is your definition of a monster boom? When do you thing this will happen and what do you think the resulting average house price will be?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chewmylegoff wrote: »

what is your definition of a monster boom?

A similar order of magnitude greater than the 2000's boom was to the late 80's boom.

Not quite Japanese boom territory..... After all, they've had falling prices for two decades and Tokyo is STILL more expensive than London.....

But expect salary multiples of 8-12 times average male mean single income anywhere within a reasonable commute of an employment hub.

Of course, few singletons will be buying... There won't be enough houses for that.

Hence the market will ration the few there are by demanding a 5 times joint income or so price tag.

When do you thing this will happen

Peak will be late 2020's to early 2030's. So a few years after the next demographic bulge peaks.

and what do you think the resulting average house price will be?

Beyond the comprehension of any of the bears on here.

We went into the start of the last boom without a significant housing shortage, and builders had kept building throughout the bust.

The current mortgage rationing and consequent worst housing shortage in a century will prove to be rocket fuel for the next boom.

abaxas

If I was a betting man, the next boom will be in building, not house prices.

homelessskilledworker

nollag2006 wrote: »

You missed it.

It ended in April 2009.

Yeah Yeah!


And the Euro crisis ended last sunday when Spanish Banks were give 100 Billion Euros

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

House prices are currently being artificially restrained thanks to mortgage rationing, but rents have soared to record highs instead, and house building has reached the lowest level in a century.

We've prevented well over a million potential FTB-s from buying houses since 2007 due to not giving them mortgages, and so in 90% of the UK rent is more than a mortgage would be.

65% of lending was removed from the market, yet prices are only down 10% or so.

And the biggest generation of FTB-s in history, bigger even than the boomers, is about to start reaching house buying age.

There are only 748,000 35 year olds this year, and that number will now climb every year until around 2025, when it peaks at nearly a million a year. The next generational trough is not until the mid 2030's, and even then it will bottom out at 100K more FTB age people a year than today.

Never again in our lifetimes will FTB-s have as little competition for housing as they do this year.

The long term trajectory for both house prices and rents can only go one way, and it ain't down...

The next boom is going to be a monster....

This is the funniest thing I have read on this board to date.

For a guy that has a strong opinion(on this board anyway) on housing and the economy I am shocked and amazed that you brush over the fact that we have(and still are) repairing the damage of an uncontrollable spedning binge which has led to the Euro/ financial crisis, we are not even close to even addressing the problems yet.

And you only think the only problem is the restraint in mortgage lending:rotfl:
Do you really think it is a case that we are going back to where we left off in 2007

Strewth!! Give me strength