70% club prediction

pop_gun

The BoE is talking about lowering interest rates to 0.25% and putting £50bn more of QE into the system. This just means house prices won't fall with the BoE backstopping the market. Soon we'll hear of 100 year mortgages and average house prices being £260,000.

RenovationMan

macaque wrote: »

For that month they were deflating by 20% a year. Something tells me that you gave up maths quite early in your education.

Goodness macaque, I've just spotted this. Was this an ironical post?

robmatic

The-Joker wrote: »

I now think it will be between 50% and 70% real fall from top to bottom. But the bottom is a long way off, only after interest rates have gone back to normal and all the repossessions have been cleared out.

137 posts, 137 mutterings about interest rates going back to normal and repossessions being cleared out.

joe_blotts

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Afraid for once I'm agreeing with macaque.
A really poor graph to try to make the point there's no slow correction occuring.
All the evidence really does point to the fact IT IS occuring and a graph from 1950-now really doesn't disprove that.

Of course his claim to have "generally anticapted" a slow correction is rubbish. He anticipated a crash. But he's changed his mind and I think he's right now.... although of course he's left open his route to return to his "crash scenario" with some comments about it being conditional on banks.

There's 2 types of corrections: correction through price and correction through time. The first is obvious the second is not so obvious but it basically means that something doesn't move for a long period while everything else catches up. Inflation in food energy etc has been around 4% for the last few years while houses are pretty much flat, even down since 2008. In real terms house are correcting as everything else is rising. ie houses are correcting when priced in energy food and goods over the last few years.

I was looking for a graph of UK house prices vs energy or food but couldn't find one. here's one of gold which I found which gives an example of this type of correction:

ukcarper

I do find all these reference to gold etc odd, as we are mainly talking about homes not investment the only thing that really matters is house price in relation to earnings.

The-Joker

pop_gun wrote: »

The BoE is talking about lowering interest rates to 0.25% and putting £50bn more of QE into the system.

They could make negative interest rates, so you get paid to borrow currency.

They will 100% guaranteed keep on adding more currency to the supply, this last £50bn is nothing wait for the helicopter drops of currency all around the world.

Matters not property is in a bear market, they have run out of bullets in the UK.

In China they have 6% and average 40% deposit requirments, they still have room to lower both to slow down the property bear market. The UK can do nothing, confidence has been lost.