70% club prediction

macaque_2

The 70% club are predicting a big net outflow of workers within the next 18 months and possibly sooner. Why?

1. The large inflow of immigration into the UK can be in no small part linked to the generous social provisions provided by HMG. As these freebies start to dissapear with government spending cuts, the attraction of the UK as a destination for immigrants will also evaporate.
2. Other countries are doing better. For example, Poland has the fastest growing economy in Europe. It also has better schooling and cheaper houses. You can be sure that such trends are not going unnoticed by the Polish diaspora (and the same for other countries as well).

Poland's economy grew 3.5% in the first quarter, the slowest rate since the start of 2010 but still well ahead of the pack in European Union.
In the final quarter of last year, the economy grew 4.3%.
The first-quarter results, announced by the Central Statistical Office Thursday, were in line with what analysts expected.

http://www.warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/article.php/21045/news

nollag2006

How did your "club's" surefire prediction of 70% drops in UK house prices pan out?

macaque_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

How did your "club's" surefire prediction of 70% drops in UK house prices pan out?

An excellent question.

We have been closing 70% offices recently in Ireland, US and Spain as our work in those countries is virtually complete.

In the case of the UK, the 70% club has generally anticipated a long slow correction (Japanese style) although a fast correction will happen in the banks get into trouble again. All the evidence confirms that the slow correction is happening.

nollag2006

Love this back pedalling.

No sign of a crash round my way...

[IMG]http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/Apps2/house-prices/house-price-index-custom-reports/hpi_report.asp?g=1&gt=1&a=Greater+London&s=01 April 2009&e=01 April 2012&t=1[/IMG]

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

macaque wrote: »

All the evidence confirms that the slow correction is happening.

Just.... no.

macaque_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

Love this back pedalling.

You could not be more wrong. Back in the days of HPC (before it went peculiar), I was predicting a Japanese type correction over many years. That has been my position ever since. The Japanese banks sat on toxic debt for years.

The only thing that could change this is if the banks get into trouble again. Then we could see a fast correction.

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just.... no.

Hmmm ........ The graph has not only topped out but the latest move is downwards. Combine this with the fundamentals and I think your case looks pretty weak.

The-Joker

nollag2006 wrote: »

How did your "club's" surefire prediction of 70% drops in UK house prices pan out?

The 70% club could still be right, but it is more looking likely that those of us in the 50% club will be right. 50% down from top to bottom in property values.

I would now say its safe to be in the between 50% and 70% crash from top to bottom club.

A lot will depend on when interest rates go back up and all the repossessions are cleared out. There are too many people living in property that they can not afford when interest rates are back up to the norm.

RUN_RABBIT_RUN

The-Joker wrote: »

A lot will depend on when interest rates go back up and all the repossessions are cleared out. There are too many people living in property that they can not afford when interest rates are back up to the norm.

you and the rest of your sock puppet army are consistent, if nothing else, i'll give you that

when some people say 'ive been saying the same thing for months' they don't actually mean theyve been saying exactly the same thing but thats what you and your 10 other logins have been doing

all good fun anyway, clearly

The-Joker

RUN_RABBIT_RUN wrote: »

you and the rest of your sock puppet army are consistent, if nothing else, i'll give you that

when some people say 'ive been saying the same thing for months' they don't actually mean theyve been saying exactly the same thing but thats what you and your 10 other logins have been doing

all good fun anyway, clearly

Better than twisitng things right old boy?

I will continue to say it the way it is.

When interest rates can no longer be held so low, house prices will no longer be able to be held so high.

I am consistant and I am also right. Much to the anoyance of the perma probbulls/houseprice rampers on here.

Conrad

macaque wrote: »

You could not be more wrong. Back in the days of HPC (before it went peculiar), I was predicting a Japanese type correction over many years. That has been my position ever since. The Japanese banks sat on toxic debt for years.

The only thing that could change this is if the banks get into trouble again. Then we could see a fast correction.

This is so clunky!

The Japs have always been terrified to spend, they hoarde at the slightest whiff of trouble so house prices stagnate.

It's a more or less meaningless comparison.

Were you known as 'Onlyme' on HPC?