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Facebook worth $104BN?
Comments
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            Graham_Devon wrote: »I must confess, I don't really get facebook.
 I can see the use of it, especially from a business sense and interaction with a group of people.
 But people totally engrossed on their phones, getting the latest update on someone's kid who they have never even met has taken a dump in the last 2 hours, and then commenting on it with LOL LOL LOL? Waste of life if you ask me.
 ...says he sat on here 
 Facebook is a way of sharing photos ultimately IMHO. Nobody really reads the updates because who gives a whatsit if some bloke you sat next to in school for a year got a promotion to Deputy Under Vice-President of Widget Production (Acting - Maternity Cover) or that their kid won 5th Best Spear Carrier in this year's Nativity Play.
 That's why they paid a billion bucks to buy a company that was all about sharing photos.
 All IMVHO, DYOR etc.
 PS As soon as the shares start trading you can sell short. Sales of shares go through 3 days after the trade is struck, loans of shares go through the day after the loan has been agreed (for an investment bank and thus a hedge fund too they go through same day) so you can 'naked short' for 2 days and still deliver the shares on time.0
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            A Bloomberg comentator was saying to day
 "Facebook is 17% of internet traffic. So how much is 'the internet' worth, and then take 17% of that. Suddenly $100bn doesnt sound too crazy"
 LOL
 Two-thirds of the planets surface is water - we should all build houses there!
 85% of SMTP traffic (email) is spam - spam is the future!
 It doesn't take much in the way of cheap analogy to sound like some bloke ramping a stock holding onto some pretty thin statistics. I still think $100,000,000,000 sounds quite, quite mad for a whole bunch of squat and hype. The emperor has no clothes.
 Was the commentator even around during the last dotcom cycle where ots of greedy people were promised a quick buck on insane valuations? They were based on exactly the nonsense we have today, x users worth $y each = $z. Problem is that x includes a lot of dead accounts, y is somewhat optimistic at best, so z is cocaine-style delusional.0
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            Something that Facebook has that some earlier dotcom absurdities (e.g. Global crossing in the late 90s, MySpace a few years or so later - with both there was a risk not only that the market wouldn't be big but also that other players would gobble the business up even if it was) did not is a genuine monopoly... Social networking is a tippy kind of market, with network effects... Users benefit from being part of the same network as other users... So there's only room, really, for one big player. The market has definitively tipped towards Facebook (for now at least - no facebook lookalike is gong to surpass it but I suppose something a little different, such as twitter, might do indirectly). If it is going to be possible to make money from a big, fairly involved, social networking site, then Facebook will be that site.FACT.0
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            A Bloomberg comentator was saying to day
 "Facebook is 17% of internet traffic. So how much is 'the internet' worth, and then take 17% of that. Suddenly $100bn doesnt sound too crazy"
 LOL
 This is exactly my point. Loads of traffic but as that timeless time from Jerry Maguire goes: Show me the money!0
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 Point missed unfortunately.This is exactly my point. Loads of traffic but as that timeless time from Jerry Maguire goes: Show me the money!
 The money in Facebook is in the information they hold about it's users. Things they like, things they follow, places they have been to, places they've checked themselves into.
 It's an advertising company's dream. Big corporations love it too. All that data that if they sign up to Facebook they will have a ready made hand picked market.
 Facebook isn't about it's usuability it's about the data and information on people's lives.0
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            $100bn, that's over $100 per account. How many million dead accounts are there?
 Dot com bubble v2.0 . . . it'll all end in tears . . .0
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            Point missed unfortunately.
 The money in Facebook is in the information they hold about it's users. Things they like, things they follow, places they have been to, places they've checked themselves into.
 It's an advertising company's dream. Big corporations love it too. All that data that if they sign up to Facebook they will have a ready made hand picked market.
 Facebook isn't about it's usuability it's about the data and information on people's lives.
 The companies don't pay for any of this however.
 You can tell facebook you have just bought a new food mixer on amazon. Facebook will tell your friends. Amazon don't spend anything and facebook don't make a penny from it. It's a free advertising board in that sense.
 The key is in targetting the user with individual ad's catered to their tastes. Doesn't quite work yet, as facebook need you to share much more than you do for it to work properly, hence why Facebook are working with the likes of Samsung to "make it easier" for you to share information. In other words, you have to turn the service off. Samsung for instance will tell your friends what you are watching on your TV...all you have to do is watch it. Their tabs, with the use of 4G and GPS, will tell your friends exactly which shop you are in. Advertisers can then see what you are shopping for and send ads to your mobile. Which is all nice, until you are buying a surprise and the surprise is out of the window.
 Facebook relies solely on US giving IT the content of our lives. Unfortunately for facebook, they are having to go too far currently. This is putting users off. Even at my place of work, someone innocently became friends with a manager, and suddenly, the timeline allows the business to see exactly what she was doing on her absent days. The girl had forgotten. She didn't get the sack, but got a proper warning, but ultimately she felt so uncomfortable she left anyway. She also apparently closed her facebook account and spent ages deleting everything.
 It's a powerful tool. But one which could easily catch others out. The next development I've heard of is being able to search for keywords in a group of peoples statuses. Lovely for someone who wants to keep a check on a group of people. Or even better, great for a local company that sells tents, to be able to offer a group of people who like camping a group discount. I know one company was suggesting they have access as part of the interview process, claiming "whats to hide"?
 Facebook is absolutely brilliant, but hard to make money from it. Facebook is a brilliant tool for sharing what YOU want to share. But when facebook share YOU and get your "friends" to share you too, which they have to to make money, then it becomes a very different service.
 Edit: To be fair to Zuckerberg, I truly don't beleive this was ever his intention. But he could never have got facebook to where it is without the money that has those intentions. He should get out and get out soon if he wants to save his name. Fast forward a few years, if he's still there, his name could be trash and he could be defined as the person who wanted full control over everyone. EVERY successful, wealthy for life internet creator got out and sold out. Lastminute, friendsreunited, myspace etc.0
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 The point is that it will at some point (that's the plan anyway) hence the inflated share price and the P/E. It doesn't really matter what they do now it's what they will do in the future. It's sucking the future buyers in for free, getting them business and then charging thn in the future.Graham_Devon wrote: »The companies don't pay for any of this however.
 You can tell facebook you have just bought a new food mixer on amazon. Facebook will tell your friends. Amazon don't spend anything and facebook don't make a penny from it. It's a free advertising board in that sense.
 The other thing to consider and which I think Zuckerberg is very good at is evolving his product and not having too much of a fixed plan and moving with the times.0
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            The point is that it will at some point (that's the plan anyway) hence the inflated share price and the P/E. It doesn't really matter what they do now it's what they will do in the future. It's sucking the future buyers in for free, getting them business and then charging thn in the future.
 The other thing to consider and which I think Zuckerberg is very good at is evolving his product and not having too much of a fixed plan and moving with the times.
 Wasn't it muted awhile back that FB was considering charging users?
 I wonder how many would drop off if they did.
 Appreciate the the diehard isomethings would still need the buzz."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
 "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0
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            The point is that it will at some point (that's the plan anyway) hence the inflated share price and the P/E. It doesn't really matter what they do now it's what they will do in the future. It's sucking the future buyers in for free, getting them business and then charging thn in the future.
 The other thing to consider and which I think Zuckerberg is very good at is evolving his product and not having too much of a fixed plan and moving with the times.
 It matters HUGELY what they do now.
 Whatever they do effects the users. With lower numbers of users, the site is worth less.0
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