house prise rise or crash??

dougk_2

the report also mentioned:-
"But seasonal adjustments hid the fact that prices grew by almost £1,000 during March, the Nationwide added, taking the UK average price up to £153,876. "

So prices did not really fall - only looks like it because of seasonal adjustments! The prices actually increased - so house cost more than a month ago according to trhe same report.

BTL's may well buy if they get a good deal and rates are low - there is still demand for rental properties and although it is not growing as fast as it was the rental market is still growing.

Take a look around there are plenty of sold signs appearing now. and don't forget it takes a good 2 months for a sale to complete in most cases - look out for the figures in may and see what has to say about March purchases!

Pal

The prices are seasonally adjusted for a reason - to make them comparable with other months. The fact that house prices have ONLY risen by £1000 in one of the busiest months of the year is a sign of a declining housing market.

When retailers complain of a bad Xmas they are talking about seasonally adjusted numbers compared to last Xmas. They still make over 40% of their sales in December, and will complain if the amount they sell compared to last year was ONLY 2% higher instead of the 5% or whatever they expected.

Nationwide is happy to present seasonally adjusted statistics when the figures show an increase, but when the figures are poor they start trying to spin the figures. Talk about a vested interest.

dougk_2

That is why things are misleading and why stats can be used to prove anything.

My point was prices are higher than a month before - they have not dropped. and £1k on £173k is over 0.5% increase. Yes it maybe low but its still an increase.

The same can be said of banks profits are rising but they still lay off staff.... perhaps the law needs to change to say you can only cut services/staff etc if you are making a loss or very small profit - but thats a different subject

pault123

conners wrote:

who thinks the house prices will rise?
who thinks they will crash?

as a first time buyer dont know what to do sit and wait and hope for a fall or just go for a house now??

going back to the original question, I have gone ahead now and bought.


Considering I am taking out a fixed 5 year rate at 4.99% with no redemption payments after the 5 years with a plan to remortgage to the best deal at the time. Also not planning to move from this property anytime within the next 10 years. AND im very happy with the 5 year fixed payments.


Can someone give me some good reasons as to why ive done the wrong or right thing entering the market in its current state??

Paul

johannamse

pault123 wrote:

going back to the original question, I have gone ahead now and bought.


Considering I am taking out a fixed 5 year rate at 4.99% with no redemption payments after the 5 years with a plan to remortgage to the best deal at the time. Also not planning to move from this property anytime within the next 10 years. AND im very happy with the 5 year fixed payments.


Can someone give me some good reasons as to why ive done the wrong or right thing entering the market in its current state??

Paul

You have done exactly the right thing. By making sure you can make the payments you will be absolutely fine.

dougk_2

You need a house to live in - you have done the right thing and you are looking long term!

hobbesandco

I have paid attention to what the banks, surveyors and estate agents have said over the last 2/3 years. These people are masters of spin and will use their statistics to talk up their game no matter how ludicrous it sounds!

I have also paid attention to what respected economists such as Roger Bootle of Capital Economics and Andrew Oswald of Warwick University have been saying. Mr. Bootle predicted a couple of years ago that prices would start falling in the summer of 2004 which it has and keep on falling until around 2007. Mr. Oswald has been saying the same thing with the timing slightly different. The message is the same: take heed, if you buy a house now and take on a mortgage you can't afford you're heading for some sleepless nights if not disaster.

Far too many times I have heard people say buy a house because you need a roof over your head. All fine when mortgage payment as a percentage of your take-home pay is reasonable but this is simply not the case now. FTB's are paying up to 33% of their take-home pay on their mortgage which is the maximum amount anyone should be paying. There is a lot to be said for peace of mind knowing you're not stretched to the limit and have funds for emergencies and your retirement. This is equally important. It's not enough to say you don't plan on moving for 10,20,30 years as negative equity won't affect you. If you can't afford the mortgage payments you'll have a lot more than negative equity to worry about.

Moncs_2

I can't see a fall in house prices, just a slowdown in the rate of which they increase in value.

My dad bought his council house in Edinburgh 18mths ago, and plans to sell it in Oct2006 to move to the US. Now when he bought it in mid 2003, it was valued at £100k, not sure but I would think/hope come Oct2006 he could sell it for £115k / £120k or do you think I am being a bit optimistic?

Pegleg2001

"I never make predictions, especially about the future"
Oscar Wilde

See https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk - there is a good forum that has some extensive wisdom on there (and some non-wisdom too I'll add).

Threads on income multiples versus average house price are interesting plus discussions that if rent is cheaper than the interest on a mortgage it is better to rent as it costs you less (debunking the "renting is wasted money" argument).

Enjoy. Sometimes the posters reference this board too.

ITtim

What people need to remember is that the market has only ever crahsed once in history. Where do you think the phrase 'safe as houses' came from? if you can afford it buy it. I pushed my self to buy my flat 3 years ago. i've made £40000 on it. now im looking to move. Obvoiusly if interest rates go up then you could struggle but generaly if your prepared to sit tight you'll gain in the end.