house prise rise or crash??

deemy2004

wibble68 wrote:

Found this little gem today.

The BBA said the figures could indicate the recent slowdown in the UK housing market could be "bottoming out".

This is obviously a very short term view.

I fail to see how a market can bottom out 20 - 30% above the
long term average.

I think this is optimism on the part of banks and estate agents.

I rememebr during the last bear market for the first year of falling prices the above was typical response of estate agents etc...

deemy2004

wibble68 wrote:

I agree doug. The low increase strategy is exactly what the BOE wants.

However, interest rates are not set purely to control house price inflation.

I think in the next 3 years we will see a clearer direction for house prices.
At the moment the picture is confusing. Most of the confusion coming from
greedy house owners and estate agents.

The party has to end sometime.

Yeh its ridiculous, they have upped the prices in March, depsite there being an extra 100,000 houses on the books i.e. excess supply over demand ... This will turn out to be a bad move ! As what buyers there are will run to the hills, whilst the tulips start waning in the summer heat.

Galtizz

I do not work in the industry and am not connected in any way.

My MIL had been trying to sell her house since the start of the slow down last year (July/ Aug) she finally accepted an offer 2 weeks ago.

I have been looking at houses for her since July/ Aug last year (on Right move mostly) and there were a lot of houses that, until recently, were still for sale. Most houses were staying on for more than a month and it was hard to find new properties in amongst the ones I had already seen. Just recently I have noticed that there are a lot more new houses coming on to the market, the prices are very slighlty higher and they are selling quicker (2 weeks to 1 month).

Since the budget and the stamp duty business there has been a massive influx of houses under the £100,000 bracket (where she is looking) and when we view houses and speak to the vendors they all say they have seen an influx of viewers since the budget.

As I say, I only have this experience to go on, I am not in anyway connected to house selling but it looks to me like, in my area, there is going to be a slight rise this year.

I took the leap and bought my house 2 nearly 3 years ago, when everyone was starting to predict a drop in prices, boy, am I glad I bought it then. What I'm trying to say is you have to take the gamble at some point. As someone has already said, you have to look at it as a long term investment. The house prices might drop next year but in 5 or 10 years time you will probably still have made money over that period of time.

dougk_2

I just spoke to a solicitor friend in East Anglia. He deals with conveyencing. He said that in the past 10 days things have gone manic and that he is now dealing with more transactions than the past 6 months added together!

Try getting hold of abbey staff too regarding mortgages - Maybe they have got rid of staff ? - but they say they have too many enquiries to deal with at the moment so things are taking longer than normal!

bluesnice

We keep hearing that FTB are not entering the market and that this is a bad thing. I'd like to ask, why does this matter when there is always a BTLetter ready to buy the cheaper flats/houses etc.

Surely prices wont go down whilst there is always someone to buy at or around the present prices.

what do you think?

deemy2004

bluesnice wrote:

We keep hearing that FTB are not entering the market and that this is a bad thing. I'd like to ask, why does this matter when there is always a BTLetter ready to buy the cheaper flats/houses etc.

Surely prices wont go down whilst there is always someone to buy at or around the present prices.

what do you think?

Yep, if theres always someone to buy then they will be supporting the market.

BUT ! When interest rates start approaching 6%, will they still be buying ?

The budget chanages have sparked interest in the housing market - temporaily... which may extend into the next election.. Which is why it was done !..... :rolleyes:

pault123

dougk wrote:

I just spoke to a solicitor friend in East Anglia. He deals with conveyencing. He said that in the past 10 days things have gone manic and that he is now dealing with more transactions than the past 6 months added together!

Try getting hold of abbey staff too regarding mortgages - Maybe they have got rid of staff ? - but they say they have too many enquiries to deal with at the moment so things are taking longer than normal!

Nationwide have been unusually busy in the mortgage department for the last 2 weeks. Simple requests taking far long.

My solicitor who is very easy to get through to usuallym, has been snowed under this month with conveyencing.

Plus looking through various estate agents sites on a daily basis houses in the northwest do seem to be getting the SOLD STC label very quickly.

Paul

dougk_2

I personally think it was just the media realsing doom and gloom figures that done it!
Its now spring and the usual increase in activity is taking place.
Like I said before consumers have not been spending on anything the last few months.......

Pal

I think that an increase in activity is inevitable at this time of year. At the first sign of the sun, people start looking at moving home. Activity at mortgage companies and solicitors will also tend to come in waves, as chains that have been waiting for a few months suddenly all complete when the final part falls into place.

But that doesn't mean that house prices won't fall. If the number of sellers exceeds the number of buyers then both can increase and house prices can still go down.

nelly_2

They have already started to drop, which funyly enough is what creats a crash, people dont see it happening untill its allready rolling, and they all start panic selling.

Simple fact one; houses are too expensive for ftb's.

Simple fact two; ftb's are at there lowest level for 2 decades.

Simple fact three; Buy to let-ers wont buy into a falling market.

:rotfl: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4396061.stm :rotfl: