This could be a mistake!

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I bet £135,001 or higher. If you're right I'll buy you a twix. If I'm right I want an orange kitkat.

2 fingers though, 4 would be pushing it!

undetterred

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Guitarman, you the same guitarman as on the share boards taking on the builder investors?

Hes too busy berating solicitors about house prices normally

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Feel free to have a field day on this thread and bookmark it etc for the future. You'll care much more than I whether I'm wrong or not!

GD, personally I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome. We are certainly in a pivotal moment of history. Much depends on how the general populace tackles the issues faced.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Land reg, house prices, 135k or under within 3 years.

Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. I doubt that you would be right but we are in an economic crisis that anything could happen. There will be a level were it becomes cheaper to buy than rent for more people and for me is higher than £135k.

Not sure why you feel the need to start a thread just to tell everyone what you think land registry house price will be at...

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

2 fingers though, 4 would be pushing it!

Done. I will hold you to this.

chewmylegoff

chucky wrote: »

Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. I doubt that you would be right but we are in an economic crisis that anything could happen. There will be a level were it becomes cheaper to buy than rent for more people and for me is higher than £135k.

Not sure why you feel the need to start a thread just to tell everyone what you think land registry house price will be at...

Given that a billion other people have started a billion different personal prediction threads in the past, I don't see why we can't have another one.

chucky

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Given that a billion other people have started a billion different personal prediction threads in the past, I don't see why we can't have another one.

This forum has a billion members and they've started threads, must have missed them.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Feel free to have a field day on this thread and bookmark it etc for the future. You'll care much more than I whether I'm wrong or not!

I think what you've done is taken a trend (the direction of which you like) and crossed it with a deeply held desire to arrive at a 'prediction'. Then you've hedged by saying you're not 100% and you don't really like how the average is calculated to include areas that might increase in price.

I think £146,000 in 3 years would take us to the long term affordability trend on Nationwide's affordability calculator. That assume no wage increases though so I'd see £146,000 as an absolute floor if the economy doesn't improve.

If the economy does improve though and supply isn't increased I can easily see prices up to £174,000.

My prediction therefore is £146,000 to £174,000 in May 2015. I can confidently say I'm 100% 50:50 that I might possibly, give or take, be right.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. I doubt that you would be right but we are in an economic crisis that anything could happen. There will be a level were it becomes cheaper to buy than rent for more people and for me is higher than £135k.

Not sure why you feel the need to start a thread just to tell everyone what you think land registry house price will be at...

Tricky one for you this one, isn't it.

You don't want to disagree with me on the gut feeling as it could be right. But then you don't want to agree, as it could be wrong. Sit on the fence, and you'll always have the fallback that you said nothing at all.

But you need to find issue somewhere. So I guess the well known forum no no of starting a new thread to start a new discussion on a new prediction is the one you're left homing in on...

Quite the contrary to your complaint, I'd like to see you make your own, and put in writing your beliefs.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

I think what you've done is taken a trend (the direction of which you like) and crossed it with a deeply held desire to arrive at a 'prediction'. Then you've hedged by saying you're not 100% and you don't really like how the average is calculated to include areas that might increase in price.

I think £146,000 in 3 years would take us to the long term affordability trend on Nationwide's affordability calculator. That assume no wage increases though so I'd see £146,000 as an absolute floor if the economy doesn't improve.

If the economy does improve though and supply isn't increased I can easily see prices up to £174,000.

My prediction therefore is £146,000 to £174,000 in May 2015. I can confidently say I'm 100% 50:50 that I might possibly, give or take, be right.

Can't deny I've hedged my bets, but honestly, I'm not 100% confident in it. What you say in your prediction has merit. To deny that, I'd have to be 100% confident...hence I'm not.

To suggest you are 100% convinced has an air of arogance and delusion. Things can change quickly, and suddenly you have to change views.

It's more gut feelings than anything else (haven't looked at any trends), backed up by the lack of catalysts for the sort of price rises you see.