This could be a mistake!

Graham_Devon

But I'm gonna call it.

Land reg, house prices, 135k or under within 3 years.

I'm not 100% convinced of this, many things could change, but who is ever 100% convinced?

Just really can't see any real upside at the moment. The past couple of years has had me questioning things and wondering if the "crash" is all we would get. But I'm feeling confident again. The biggest concern on this one that I have, is that London just keeps increasing and pulling the average up. That not only makes my prediction wrong, but also makes the average house price worthless.

Feel free to have a field day on this thread and bookmark it etc for the future. You'll care much more than I whether I'm wrong or not!

abaxas

15% off in 3 years.

Not exactly a very crashy prediction. Especailly outside London.

Graham_Devon

abaxas wrote: »

15% off in 3 years.

Not exactly a very crashy prediction. Especailly outside London.

No, it's not a very crashy prediction, but it's still my prediction. Or should I say, gut feeling.

London is the one area that makes it really hard to see where the total average will be, and it's the one place, that currently looks to lend a hand to any average indexes. It's got to be taken into account, hence "just" 15%.

I was also careful to say "within", rather than "in"

DervProf

abaxas wrote: »

15% off in 3 years.

Not exactly a very crashy prediction. Especailly outside London.

"crashy" by some people's standards (those of a bullish nature).

I can't argue with Graham's prediction, it isn't hard to imagine a further 3 years of moderate declines. Unless lending is relaxed and the economy picks up, then it's hard to argue with Graham's forecast.

I think the "safe" bet is on prices being 5% higher than they are now. I don't know why, but it seems a safe prediction.

guitarman001

Not very crashy but very welcome and not outside the realms of possibility!

Graham_Devon

Guitarman, you the same guitarman as on the share boards taking on the builder investors?

guitarman001

I have posted on TW and BDEV, yes. I used to own but thought better of it. Can't see the trend turning on those for quite some time (I genuinely believe what I write to be true, rather than my narratives having some ulterior motive like a lot of folks..!). It's all about the trend turning for me.. You can see a picture building (hoho) - I'm not some nut like some here would lead you to believe - I've done my homework ;D

coastline

All the housing corrections since 1945 have ended with average earnings to house prices at 3 or 4 times...theres a few links to be posted somewhere..

this one is only from 1980..

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/2010/04/house-prices-vs-average-earnings.html

coastline

project the old trend from the 70's on this chart you may get your wish of 135 within 5 years..;)

http://monevator.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/house-prices-1960s.jpg

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But I'm gonna call it.

Land reg, house prices, 135k or under within 3 years.

I'm not 100% convinced of this, many things could change, but who is ever 100% convinced?

Just really can't see any real upside at the moment. The past couple of years has had me questioning things and wondering if the "crash" is all we would get. But I'm feeling confident again. The biggest concern on this one that I have, is that London just keeps increasing and pulling the average up. That not only makes my prediction wrong, but also makes the average house price worthless.

Feel free to have a field day on this thread and bookmark it etc for the future. You'll care much more than I whether I'm wrong or not!

I bet £135,001 or higher. If you're right I'll buy you a twix. If I'm right I want an orange kitkat.

ukcarper

According to Halifax the house price to earnings ratio is 4.33 and average house price is just under £160k so the wage they must use is about £37k. So for £135k the ratio would be about 3.7x.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if they did fall to £135k but then I wouldn’t be surprised if they increased a few %