Price Crash ITV 8pm TONIGHT....

leftieM

Talksalot you should go to some of the places that Malone Road investor types hang out (any golf club!) and talk very loudly about how you've off-loaded your investment portfolio as your pal from Templeton Robinson told you they suspect that prices will fall in the summer.
You might see some action then .

(Apologies to everyone - that's very Northern Ireland specific.)

brasso

Markets go up and down, and housing is no exception. It seems undeniable to me that the rate of house prices rises will go down, though whether prices themselves will see real, nominal falls, is much harder to call. Demand remains very high, and although much is made by housing pessimists about interest rates rising, the fact is that they are still at a historic low.

But a downturn in HPI, yes, very likely. Even the moat bullish of housing bulls wouldn't expect to see 10-15% increases continue. The big questions are:
- WHEN will we see a correction?
- HOW DEEP will any drops be?
- HOW LONG will this period of correction last?

No one knows the answers to these questions although vested interests like HPC-ers and estate agents will say otherwise.

franklee

That's the thing about bubbles, they always go on longer than you expect, and then some to cries of "it's different this time". And just when you really, really think that it IS different this time ... it turns out to be the same old just like last time. Except for now, when as we all know it really, really IS different this time .... :idea:

Of course it is :idea:

Must be :idea:

Always is :idea:

brasso

Well in a sense, it's ALWAYS different EVERY time. If it was exactly the same, we'd all be able to time the market. The reality is that we can't time the market.

The undeniable fact is though that some factors are different e.g. 'property !!!!!!' shows, cheap credit and high immigration fuelling demand. No sign of a recession, low inflation (OK, higher than it was, but compare that with the 23% we had in the 70s). Unemployment low, a general feeling of economic wellbeing among most people. All these things work against a HPC even though continuing high prices must eventually feed into a slowdown and eventual correction. But my questions remain -- WHEN, HOW DEEP, HOW LONG?

We don't know. If it doesn't happen for 3 or 4 years it still makes a lot of sense to buy now. If this year, then wait.

talksalot81

leftieM wrote:

Talksalot you should go to some of the places that Malone Road investor types hang out (any golf club!) and talk very loudly about how you've off-loaded your investment portfolio as your pal from Templeton Robinson told you they suspect that prices will fall in the summer.
You might see some action then .

(Apologies to everyone - that's very Northern Ireland specific.)

I talk the talk at Malone golf club every weekend! Mostly people just think that it is crazy and impossible for young people.

exil

"Markets go up and down, and housing is no exception."

Well - actually they seem to be. There was a brief dip in prices around 1990, but basically prices have risen relentlessly since the 1930s.

Long term, house prices rise more or less in line with disposable incomes. And as long as those incomes keep rising, so will house prices. Why? Because unlike other markets, supply is restricted by green belt and other regulations, and the sheer lack of available land - houses are not built where people want to live - so prices rise in hot spots - so people are pushed out into surrounding areas, raising prices there - so eventually the house price wave spreads out throughout the country. Typically, a boom starts in London and moves out from there over the next few years. This is usually followed by a "correction" but that means prices stabilising rather than crashing - people just stop selling as soon as they think they might lose money on the sale and the supply is quickly restricted.

A free market in housing would soon change things - but can you see anyone agreeing to this? The whole of the South East covered in houses? Prescott got a lot of flak for suggesting building houses in this area - can't see any politican of either main party having the courage to do it.

do_it_today!

I agree it is difficult to tell when a crash is coming... in 2000 I thought about sitting it out and waiting for a crash before buying alas it didnt come - so I bought - now if I hadnt the same house I am in now would have cost me more than double to buy today. Its all swings and roundabouts to me. I wasnt desperate to buy then but Im really glad I did - id like to move now but not keen as anything we'd want to buy - would strech us to the absolute limit - so we'll stay for a while. however if the trend continues there is the risk this could result in us paying double what we would to buy now. but the plan is we would be in a much better position later anyway so we shall see

leftieM

talksalot81 wrote:

I talk the talk at Malone golf club every weekend! Mostly people just think that it is crazy and impossible for young people.

They won't part with their BTLs to make it easier for you though!

rebeccaj

brasso wrote:

a general feeling of economic wellbeing among most people.

but encompassed in over a trillion pounds of debt

if that's a feeling of wellbeing, then gawd help us!

do_it_today!

There maybe economic wellbeing ie higher incomes and employment but that doesnt translate into happiness of peace of mind