Quiz Question...

Generali

wotsthat wrote: »

I can't find the quote but wasn't Warren Buffett that said if he had a time machine he'd go back and uninvent railways and airlines as neither as an industry has yet managed to deliver a positive return?

Car companies and airlines...?

JimmyTheWig

wotsthat wrote: »

I can't find the quote but wasn't Warren Buffett that said if he had a time machine he'd go back and uninvent railways and airlines as neither as an industry has yet managed to deliver a positive return?

Just goes to show what a rubbish ultimate aim the profit motive is.
As far as I am aware, railways were the driving force for many advancements (e.g. more accurate time measurements) and were vital for the industrial revolution.
And today they still provide a vital service.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

Car companies and airlines...?

Can't find it. Pretty sure it was railroads. I think that explains why the UK had a debt hangover from the railways - the bubble burst before they'd even finished building them.

Here's an airline quote from Warren Buffett.

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

Good point and I can't answer your question as I simply don't know the answer.

We suffer all to often from poorly researched journalism these days. As the world was such a different place even just 70 years ago.

homelessskilledworker

Generali wrote: »

The answer is Britain in the 1840s. There was a huge public debt resulting from the wars against France and the hangover from 2 railway investment booms.

The source was John Maudlin's excellent bi-weekly email which is very interesting if rather bearish.

Britain got herself out of massive debt (maybe 250% of GDP) with an amazing technological revolution. My opinion is that we are on the edge of another technological spike, this time in the medical arena.

I agree with you about being on the eve another technological spike. The internet and more importantly the information that can be sent down fibre has not hardly started, the information we can download and more importantly upload has thousands of possible not yet used possibilities from a fridge that will order it's own food to a house where you can operate appliances and heating from your place a work, or even the other side of the planet.
I have done work on SDH mulitplexing, an exhange we once had in the 90's which was the size of a supermarket can now be stood on a small table

Incredible stuff

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

We suffer all to often from poorly researched journalism these days. As the world was such a different place even just 70 years ago.

I think we can agree there!

The article I quoted from originally was an introduction written by a hedge fund manager to a piece written by an economic historian.

I find it amazing how different the world is to my 23 y/o au pair than it is to me. She remembers pre-Google but not in her adult life. She doesn't really remember the world without the internet. 33 & 1/3rpm and the Cold War are meaningless to her. She's not 20 years younger than me.

Thrugelmir

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I agree with you about being on the eve another technological spike. The internet and more importantly the information that can be sent down fibre has not hardly started, the information we can download and more importantly upload has thousands of possible not yet used possibilities from a fridge that will order it's own food to a house where you can operate appliances and heating from your place a work, or even the other side of the planet.

Downside is that all the components in the chain require energy i.e, electricity. So is the advancement cost efficient? At a time when supply is constrained as well.

My experience of technology in the financial sector is that its poorly used. Badly configured. Dumbing down jobs to a level where when it goes wrong. There's a lack of expertise to resolve issues. Thereby incurring enormous cost.

homelessskilledworker

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Downside is that all the components in the chain require energy i.e, electricity. So is the advancement cost efficient? At a time when supply is constrained as well.

My experience of technology in the financial sector is that its poorly used. Badly configured. Dumbing down jobs to a level where when it goes wrong. There's a lack of expertise to resolve issues. Thereby incurring enormous cost.

Funny you should use the word electricity in your post, because that and air and rail travel share a parrallel with what I am talking about.
When the first grids were first used in the late 19th early 20th century and the first electrical lighting was used it failed big time and so called experts said it would never last, there was a similar story with rail and air travel.

Same has already happened with the bursting of the tech bubble of the 90's.

Another point you make about electricity is that we are far from exhausting our supplies, there is millions fold of clean energy out there that still is waiting to be harnessed compared to say oil. Once we make that move away from fossil fuels and start an energy tech war that will come one day the power of oil will seem like a wet fart compared to what is possible.

The sun in one minute gives off more energy that humans could ever hope to use, and cold fusion should be with us in the next 30 years or less, some amazing stuff is coming our way in the next 50 years.

Thrugelmir

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Funny you should use the word electricity in your post, because that and air and rail travel share a parrallel with what I am talking about.
When the first grids were first used in the late 19th early 20th century and the first electrical lighting was used it failed big time and so called experts said it would never last, there was a similar story with rail and air travel.

Same has already happened with the bursting of the tech bubble of the 90's.

Another point you make about electricity is that we are far from exhausting our supplies, there is millions fold of clean energy out there that still is waiting to be harnessed compared to say oil. Once we make that move away from fossil fuels and start an energy tech war that will come one day the power of oil will seem like a wet fart compared to what is possible.

The sun in one minute gives off more energy that humans could ever hope to use, and cold fusion should be with us in the next 30 years or less, some amazing stuff is coming our way in the next 50 years.

Will people be able to afford the cost though?

Many great inventions are unaffordable at a commercial level. Concorde being a prime example.


I've been to many seedling venture capital raising events. ( Like a Dragons Den). Where the presented concepts fall down on economic return.

spadoosh

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Funny you should use the word electricity in your post, because that and air and rail travel share a parrallel with what I am talking about.
When the first grids were first used in the late 19th early 20th century and the first electrical lighting was used it failed big time and so called experts said it would never last, there was a similar story with rail and air travel.

Same has already happened with the bursting of the tech bubble of the 90's.

Another point you make about electricity is that we are far from exhausting our supplies, there is millions fold of clean energy out there that still is waiting to be harnessed compared to say oil. Once we make that move away from fossil fuels and start an energy tech war that will come one day the power of oil will seem like a wet fart compared to what is possible.

The sun in one minute gives off more energy that humans could ever hope to use, and cold fusion should be with us in the next 30 years or less, some amazing stuff is coming our way in the next 50 years.

An optimist ... i like it!

The problem with the sun and energy is that we cant get to it, never mind harness it. The renewable energies though moving on are still way behind generating the power we need, never mind the infastrucutre that needs to be put in place.

Cold fusion i think your clutching at straws with, were closer to having flying cars. They cant even replicate it in a lab consistently never mind have nuclear stations for it.

With regards to this nuclear energy was supposed to be the 'renewable energy' for all though it looks like this is becoming more and more lilely to fall by the way side as it costs to much never mind the stigmas attatched.

I do agree the internet has moved us forward a long way. People power seems to be taking over just need to look at all the protests worldwide from social networking this is happening. Plus it seems to have created the majority of the population into genius', or at least know it alls, or at least the term i like to use 'googler's'