Yes, but can they build it in time....

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Hmmm, not sure your point / argument on this one.
Who mentioned bears?



So you believe that house prices is inconsequential to the population.
I do seem to recall discussions on affordability.

The TV editors must be missing a trick with all the TV property programs that are on air.

Seriously you think the population are not interested in property and their prices.



Do you see the fault in this statement?

Buyer fails to buy from three developers because they can't get buyers.



Are you stating that builders are selling here?



Presumably by forced sellers.
Where do they live?
Who will buy? Probably in this situation an increased private rental sector.



Builders restrict to maintain price.
they did so when HPI is rampant and do so in a reduced transaction market. the only difference is they then ramp back the supply to meet the reduced demand.

What your really aying is that in your opinion, builders will only build when credit is more easily available.



Agreed, prices are stagnating.
they are not rampant nor crashing.
Meanwhile the population still increases and the supply is not matching that.

What do you expect to happan as the Dam holds back the demand?

Banks lending criteria will hold back prices for years to come. Also just like we saw in 2010 there are lots of people looking to sell. Once prices rise you will see alot more properties on the market.

The reality is people simply will not be able to afford to buy past a certain prices. We saw prices stagnate in 2004-2005 and only start to increase due to lax credit practises. These practise will not be back in our life time.

There are alot of future possible outcomes for the future of prices. Your suggestion is only one possible outcome which there is no guarantee will happen.

Also there are not as many property programs these days. I don't think property ladder exists anymore and Relocation just seems to be repeats these days.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

Banks lending criteria will hold back prices for years to come. Also just like we saw in 2010 there are lots of people looking to sell. Once prices rise you will see alot more properties on the market.

The reality is people simply will not be able to afford to buy past a certain prices. We saw prices stagnate in 2004-2005 and only start to increase due to lax credit practises. These practise will not be back in our life time.

There are alot of future possible outcomes for the future of prices. Your suggestion is only one possible outcome which there is no guarantee will happen.

Also there are not as many property programs these days. I don't think property ladder exists anymore and Relocation just seems to be repeats these days.

I do agree that credit availability will restrict house price growth in the short term.

I agree we are in a period of stagnation and this can continue for a number of years.

Of course there are many potential outcomes for house price direction in the future, hence why I'm saying with the current fundamental facts in place, it's only likely (not guaranteed) to increase in the future.

Until you see a change in these fundamentals it will be hard to foresee any other outcome.

I remain to be convinced whether there will be a loosening of credit in our lifetime. Certainly the deposit requirements are not as stringent as it was a couple of years ago.

If people cannot afford beyond a certain market place, with increasing population it increases the marketplace for private investment

P.S. regarding the population interest in house prices, I forgot about the other media (radio, newspapers) which regularly discuss the house prrice situation

kabayiri

Why don't they build high rise buildings in the places where the immigrants want to work? London, as an example.

Economic migrants do not need as much living space; and high rise living does not carry the negative connotations elsewhere.

You could put a lot of high rise on the Olympic village site.

Why would you live in a new Midlands city if the commuting cost to your workplace is high ?

wotsthat

Emy1501 wrote: »

The government cannot afford to do any of the things you are suggesting in the current climate.

They also have no interest in seeing house prices falling and I suspect they would be happy to see prices rise in line with wage inflation.

At the moment the majority of the british public are happy with where prices are at the moment and until the shift changes ie renters out numbering home owners or parents gettting fed up of their children never leaving home things won't change.

IMO best thing would be once the economy repairs itself and young people learn to save for a deposit enough houses are built to keep prices stable which would allow houses to become more affordable in real terms.

I agree - nothing will happen and house building will not keep pace with population increase. If we have to wait until the government can afford to take action we'll be waiting a long long time.

Unfortunately, this is leading to an increase in accomodation costs now. Rents are at record highs and owner-occupiers are starting to see increases in the costs of accomodation too.
As these costs rise the amount of money paid in housing benefits is rising too.

Emy1501

wotsthat wrote: »

I agree - nothing will happen and house building will not keep pace with population increase. If we have to wait until the government can afford to take action we'll be waiting a long long time.

Unfortunately, this is leading to an increase in accomodation costs now. Rents are at record highs and owner-occupiers are starting to see increases in the costs of accomodation too.
As these costs rise the amount of money paid in housing benefits is rising too.

Average rental prices have been kept down since the mid 90's buy the increase in BTL landlords. Renting should always be a fair bit more than buying but the IO figure of the avergae house price at about £163k at 5% is pretty similar to the avergae rent figure which has been suggested at £707.

Therefore you could argue than rents could probably go 20%+ higher than they are now before people really start to even taken notice on a whole to really start complaining.

I suspect once IR go up and mortgage costs and Rent costs go up and more disposable income is taken by these costs slowing potential growth someone may need to consider the prospect of making housing more affordable. I suspect though we are a fair few years off this time.

Graham_Devon

Emy1501 wrote: »

And how do you plan to avert this crisis that does not exist at the moment? Builders are not going to build houses and no one can afford or do not want to buy and banks are not going to lend 90+ mortgages on this property then not much can be done.

Unless you believe you can convince the government to sell future land only to developers who are going to build affordable houses which lenders will lend on then I suspect it best to wait for the economy to improve and then let builders build when people can afford to buy the houses.

The crisis is only used to back up a theory regarding rising house prices. Nothing more.