Yes, but can they build it in time....

Emy1501

wotsthat wrote: »

We're sleepwalking into a crisis that could be prevented - but won't be.

Whats happening in Syria is a crisis. House prices rising by even 50% is not a crisis.

DervProf

Emy1501 wrote: »

Whats happening in Syria is a crisis. House prices rising by even 50% is not a crisis.

It is, or could be a housing crisis.

I know what you are getting at, but "crisis" can be used to describe a lot of situations of differing proportions and severity.

wotsthat

Emy1501 wrote: »

Whats happening in Syria is a crisis. House prices rising by even 50% is not a crisis.

I'm talking about the basic human requirement for shelter which will be in shorter supply in the UK of the future.

What's Syria got to do with house prices in the UK?

Emy1501

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm talking about the basic human requirement for shelter which will be in shorter supply in the UK of the future.

What's Syria got to do with house prices in the UK?

Syria is an example of crisis. There is enough shelter in the Uk and there is unlikely to be any serious within the next 100 years. No government would survive if there were mass people on living on the street.

You need to stop worrying. Start worrying when your so called crisis starts,

wotsthat

Emy1501 wrote: »

Syria is an example of crisis. There is enough shelter in the Uk and there is unlikely to be any serious within the next 100 years. No government would survive if there were mass people on living on the street.

You need to stop worrying. Start worrying when your so called crisis starts,

Thanks for putting it into perspective for me.

I'd always thought it was best to try and avert a crisis but maybe you're right - let's not worry about it until there is one.

Emy1501

wotsthat wrote: »

Thanks for putting it into perspective for me.

I'd always thought it was best to try and avert a crisis but maybe you're right - let's not worry about it until there is one.

And how do you plan to avert this crisis that does not exist at the moment? Builders are not going to build houses and no one can afford or do not want to buy and banks are not going to lend 90+ mortgages on this property then not much can be done.

Unless you believe you can convince the government to sell future land only to developers who are going to build affordable houses which lenders will lend on then I suspect it best to wait for the economy to improve and then let builders build when people can afford to buy the houses.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

Hamish started the thread not a so called property Bear.

Hmmm, not sure your point / argument on this one.
Who mentioned bears?

Emy1501 wrote: »

I don't remember any debates about the housing market in any of the live TV debates which suggest that the population as a whole are not as interested in the housing market as you would think.

So you believe that house prices is inconsequential to the population.
I do seem to recall discussions on affordability.

The TV editors must be missing a trick with all the TV property programs that are on air.

Seriously you think the population are not interested in property and their prices.

Emy1501 wrote: »

Builder are struggling to sell homes in the current market so why would they build more homes now? I know someone who tried to buy a property on 3 different developments between 2010-2011 but none of them was finished because the builder could not get enough buyers.

Do you see the fault in this statement?

Buyer fails to buy from three developers because they can't get buyers.

Emy1501 wrote: »

Also a number of porperties bought by builders near me in recent years stand empty and one of them is now being re sold back to the private market.

Are you stating that builders are selling here?

Emy1501 wrote: »

The reality is the only way for prices to crash is for rates to rise or mass unemployment.

Presumably by forced sellers.
Where do they live?
Who will buy? Probably in this situation an increased private rental sector.

Emy1501 wrote: »

Builders will build once any recovery takes off in my opinion.

Builders restrict to maintain price.
they did so when HPI is rampant and do so in a reduced transaction market. the only difference is they then ramp back the supply to meet the reduced demand.

What your really aying is that in your opinion, builders will only build when credit is more easily available.

Emy1501 wrote: »

If prices were rising at 10% a year I could see your point but as prices are going nowhere and haven't for at least 2 years them its not something the majority are going to worry about.

Agreed, prices are stagnating.
they are not rampant nor crashing.
Meanwhile the population still increases and the supply is not matching that.

What do you expect to happan as the Dam holds back the demand?

wotsthat

Emy1501 wrote: »

And how do you plan to avert this crisis that does not exist at the moment? Builders are not going to build houses and no one can afford or do not want to buy and banks are not going to lend 90+ mortgages on this property then not much can be done.

Unless you believe you can convince the government to sell future land only to developers who are going to build affordable houses which lenders will lend on then I suspect it best to wait for the economy to improve and then let builders build when people can afford to buy the houses.

There are plenty of things that can be done now. Relax planning laws, remove stamp duty, tax breaks for builders for every home sold, removal of long term SMI and divert cash to FTB's buying new houses, council tax breaks for people buying new houses, care home promises for older people downsizing to smaller new properties.

Some of the above won't be effective and I'm just chucking about some ideas but to say we can't do anything until the builders feel like it sounds like apathy.

IveSeenTheLight

the_flying_pig wrote: »

er, because people would want it to happen, because most people would be better off if it did, so they'd vote for whoever woudl make it happen?

very crudely let's assume that today everyone aged 40+ wants HPI [c. 30m people, 50% of population; 67% of whole voting population], everyone aged 20-39 [c. 15m people, 25% of whole population; 33% of voting population] wants lower prices, everyone aged 0-19 [c. 15m people, 25% of whole population; 0% of voting population] either doesn't care or doesn't vote.

if we really do add another 5m immigrants who mostly face overcrowding and/or affordability constraints, plus another 7.5m young people grow up & start to vote and want affordable housing, plus another 7.5m old HPI cheerleaders die off, voters who want HPI will easily slide into a minority.

So what you are saying is that you are expecting / need for there to be a vast increase in population to create the shift in voting demographics for "would be buyers" to out vote existing homeowners.

Problem is that many immigrants do not wish to buy and are happy renting.

Another problem with your crude analysis is that there are many 20-39 year olds who are also home owners.

The 7.5 million "HPI cheerleaders" who die off. Where does their assett wealth go? some will go to inheritance supporting some who were not home owners into being home owners.

It seems a rather week, long term strategy, hoping that the shift will cause sufficient voting capacity to vote an alternative governement in, with a different viewpoint.

How has that worked with Labour having seen HPI and the Con Dems not chanigng policy to vastly reduce prices.

Emy1501

wotsthat wrote: »

There are plenty of things that can be done now. Relax planning laws, remove stamp duty, tax breaks for builders for every home sold, removal of long term SMI and divert cash to FTB's buying new houses, council tax breaks for people buying new houses, care home promises for older people downsizing to smaller new properties.

Some of the above won't be effective and I'm just chucking about some ideas but to say we can't do anything until the builders feel like it sounds like apathy.

The government cannot afford to do any of the things you are suggesting in the current climate.

They also have no interest in seeing house prices falling and I suspect they would be happy to see prices rise in line with wage inflation.

At the moment the majority of the british public are happy with where prices are at the moment and until the shift changes ie renters out numbering home owners or parents gettting fed up of their children never leaving home things won't change.

IMO best thing would be once the economy repairs itself and young people learn to save for a deposit enough houses are built to keep prices stable which would allow houses to become more affordable in real terms.