London's property boom over?

DervProf

Hamish's crystal balls are highly buffed.

TBF, I will say that Hamish has been pretty accurate in his predictions, but his predictions were pretty "safe" in my opinion. I don't think my predictions over the past year or two have been too far out. Maybe not within 0.1%, but certainly it didn't take a genius to work out that house prices weren't going much up or down in recent times. I think there is a large element of luck involved in house price predictions, anyone expecting >10% swings in the past couple of years were being very brave, but a +/- 5% change was not unreasonable (with a bias towards low positive or a small fall).

Anyway, here's my prediciton for 2012....... +1.8%.

The correction continues.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

I will say that Hamish has been pretty accurate in his predictions, but his predictions were pretty "safe" in my opinion. .

That's the thing about predictions, what counts is being right, not being outrageous.

In the Cleaver mid 2009 thread, I was within 0.1% a year later.

Whereas the usual bear gang were massively and spectacularly wrong. Just as they have been every year since.

Pobby was 9% out.
Graham Devon was 11% out.
CarolT was 12% out.
Brit1234 was 15% out.
FungusFighter/CrashBangWally was 15% out.
Geoffky was 19% out.
And our old hpc friend Bernard Shaw was a whopping 29% out.

These people obviously have no interest in reading the facts and coming up with reasonable conclusions, but rather prefer to spread lies and misinformation in a vain attempt to talk down housing.

Up to them, I suppose, but surely a complete waste of time on a forum with just a few dozen readers.:)

wotsthat

DervProf wrote: »

What chronic shortage of supply ?

There is only a chronic shortage of supply if there are lots of people able to create the demand, and I don't think there are at the moment.

There may be a chronic shortage of properties if we wish to be able to supply 1 property for every 2 adults in the country, but do every 2 adults have the means to buy a property ?

I'm sure a majority of the adult population would "demand" to be able to buy a house, but can they actually create real demand ?

Depends how you define shortgage I suppose. Maybe there's not a shortgage after all there are more bedrooms than people.

However, the IPPR are forecasting a shortage of 750,000 homes by 2025 and even in a poor economy they estimate 200,000 new homes a year are needed.

"We cannot go on as we have done. Britain needs to build more homes. That is not going to happen without a fundamental review of housing policy," said IPPR director Nick Pearce.

"If the rate of housebuilding does not radically increase, we face a growing housing crisis. Whether the economy performs well or poorly, a serious gap looms between housing supply and demand.

"Our ageing population and rising expectations for living standards are going to drive up demand, but if there is no change in housing policy it will seriously hold back supply."

More people per house should be a nice support for BTL. I suppose that's what we want; why waste money building houses in case the demand isn't 'real'. Shows the gap between forum debate and the outside world.

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Hang on a minute there....

Lets take a look at what I actually predicted, rather than what you think I predicted.

• -In the 2010 predictions thread, I expected the indices to end the year a few percent up, and they ended broadly flat in England, and up in Scotland.
  
• -In Cleaver's midyear 12 month predictions thread, I predicted +4% 12 months later and it was +3.9% on the index.
  
• -In the 2011 predictions thread I expected the indices to end the year with a slight bias towards falling prices, in a range from -3% to +2%, and they were all well within that range. Halifax -1%, Nationwide +1%, and LR -2%.
  
• -In the 2012 predictions thread I expect the indices to end the year flat, with a slight bias towards rising pries, in a range from -2% to +3%.

How on earth is any of that being the opposite of the 70% club???

These prediction threads are full of the Sibley's and Nollags of the world predicting +10%, and the crowds of bears predicting -10% to -25% down, which is a pretty spectacular fail.

Whilst I've been directionally right and within a very, very small margin of error on every prediction thread on this forum.



I have been significantly better than anyone else on here at getting it right in the annual prediction threads.

In fact Emy, I challenge you to find any other poster that has been as consistently close as I have with house price predictions in the annual prediction threads on this board for the last 3 years.

I'm even willing to put a wager on it.

Lets agree an amount to the charity of your choice if you can find one, or you to the charity of my choice if you can't....

I,m not really a betting man and I would'nt want to take any of your money as i know you dont' have any:) but here's two of your predictions for 2010 and 2011/2012.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2176759

2011 and 2012 the boom years I don't think so

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2159215

house prices to rise between 5-10% in 2010 Again I don't think so. Seems we even had a bit of a debate about it too towards the end of the thread:)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I,m not really a betting man but heres two of your predictions for 2010 and 2011/2012.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2176759

2011 and 2012 the boom years I don't think so

:rotfl:

You left out the rest of that sentence.....

"particularly for London with the build up to the Olympics"

Which of course has been exactly the case, with London prices up strongly for the last year.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2159215

house prices to rise between 5-10% in 2010 Again I don't think so. Seems we even had a bit of a debate about it too towards the end of the thread:)

:rotfl:

Nice try, but actually what the Times economist said was....

"Prices are far more likely to rise by another 5 to 10 per cent in 2010 than to slump back, as so much of the Commentariat seems to believe."

To which my post said.....

"I think he's got it about right for the 2010 forecast here."

That prices were more likely to rise by 5% to 10% than to slump back.

So back to the challenge, can you find a poster that has been more consistently accurate with their price forecasts in the annual prediction threads?

I wager not....

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

You left out the rest of that sentence.....

"particularly for London with the build up to the Olympics"

Which of course has been exactly the case, with London prices up strongly for the last year.





:rotfl:

Nice try, but actually what the Times economist said was....

"Prices are far more likely to rise by another 5 to 10 per cent in 2010 than to slump back, as so much of the Commentariat seems to believe."

To which my post said.....

"I think he's got it about right for the 2010 forecast here."

That prices were more likely to rise by 5% to 10% than to slump back.

So back to the challenge, can you find a poster that has been more consistently accurate with their price forecasts in the annual prediction threads?

I wager not....

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2557643

Wrong again here. +3 to +7 in year when prices were .1% according Nationwide so on average 5% out.

maybe you can link us to al these threads where you predictions were right?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2557643

Wrong again here. +3 to +7 in year when prices were .1% according Nationwide so on average 5% out.
?

That's the same thread referred to in the first item on the list.

• -In the 2010 predictions thread, I expected the indices to end the year a few percent up, and they ended broadly flat in England, and up in Scotland.
  
• -In Cleaver's midyear 12 month predictions thread, I predicted +4% 12 months later and it was +3.9% on the index.
  
• -In the 2011 predictions thread I expected the indices to end the year with a slight bias towards falling prices, in a range from -3% to +2%, and they were all well within that range. Halifax -1%, Nationwide +1%, and LR -2%.
  
• -In the 2012 predictions thread I expect the indices to end the year flat, with a slight bias towards rising pries, in a range from -2% to +3%.

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That's the same thread referred to in the first item on the list.

• -In the 2010 predictions thread, I expected the indices to end the year a few percent up, and they ended broadly flat in England, and up in Scotland.
  
• -In Cleaver's midyear 12 month predictions thread, I predicted +4% 12 months later and it was +3.9% on the index.
  
• -In the 2011 predictions thread I expected the indices to end the year with a slight bias towards falling prices, in a range from -3% to +2%, and they were all well within that range. Halifax -1%, Nationwide +1%, and LR -2%.
  
• -In the 2012 predictions thread I expect the indices to end the year flat, with a slight bias towards rising pries, in a range from -2% to +3%.

The 3 threads i have linked to suggests your predictions may not be great as you think. I may be wrong and therefore I'm happy for you to link me to these predictions from the beginning of each year where you have got the predictions right.

You can waffle all you want but I know you predicted in the relevant thread that house prices in 2010 would be +3 to +7 and I know I and a few others predicted -3 to +3. At the same time I didn't vote in 2009 but accept if I had I would have been out.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I didn't vote in 2009 but accept if I had I would have been out.

Linked for you....

-In the 2010 predictions thread, I expected the indices to end the year a few percent up, and they ended broadly flat in England, and up in Scotland.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2176759

-In Cleaver's midyear 12 month predictions thread, I predicted +4% 12 months later and it was +3.9% on the index.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1929789

-In the 2011 predictions thread I expected the indices to end the year with a slight bias towards falling prices, in a range from -3% to +2%, and they were all well within that range. Halifax -1%, Nationwide +1%, and LR -2%.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2977486

-In the 2012 predictions thread I expect the indices to end the year flat, with a slight bias towards rising pries, in a range from -2% to +3%
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3696339

So now Emy, back to the challenge.

Go through any of those annual prediction threads and find anyone consistently more accurate than me.

For that matter, show me how those accurate and conservative predictions are remotely comparable to the "70% club" nonsense.

Graham_Devon

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Hamish predicts pretty much every outcome (as seen on this thread where he decides which one of his predictions he;ll run with). Therefore, he's bound to get one right.