Greece...

cogito

worldtraveller wrote: »

The EU faces a looming crisis which could threaten the sustainability of the eurozone as the International Monetary Fund has warned Greece’s debts are on an “explosive” path despite years of attempted austerity and economic reforms.

Global financiers at the IMF are increasingly unwilling to fund endless bailouts for the eurozone's most troubled country, passing more of the burden onto the EU - at a time when Germany does not want to keep sending cash to Athens.

telegraph.co.uk

The most remarkable part of the article is that Jeroen Disselbloem actually believes that Greece is on the path to recovery. No wonder that the EU is in such a mess if some of their leading lights are willing to publicly express this sort of fantasy.

vivatifosi

So are we finally at the point where the fat lady stops kicking the can down the road and actually starts singing?

MacMickster

vivatifosi wrote: »

So are we finally at the point where the fat lady stops kicking the can down the road and actually starts singing?

Getting closer, but I don't think that we are there yet. The kicking foot is tiring and getting weaker but will continue to prod the can a little further for some time yet.

Unfortunately, delaying the inevitable is not in the best interests of Greece, the EU or the euro. Until the powers that be properly acknowledge the faults inherent in the euro and EU there can be no real debate about its reform.

michaels

Merkel is between a rock and a hard place - damned if she ponies up any more money for Greece but also damned if she lets Greece fold and has to 'mark to market' how much has already been lost.

I suspect the new US admin will be much happier to play hardball (not that they will not be open to a deal, but that they will utilise the fact that they are negotating from a position fo strength and look for a deal that suits them) over any deal to input anymore IMF funds than the previous one.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Today the leader of Germany's Free Democrats says that Greece should quit the Euro Zone and get debt relief.

"It's clear that Greece needs to have its debts written off," Lindner said. "Greece's debts can only be written off outside of the euro zone, so we're talking about Grexit."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-greece-germany-idUKKBN15O0W6?il=0

AnotherJoe

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Today the leader of Germany's Free Democrats says that Greece should quit the Euro Zone and get debt relief.

Recent polls put support for the FDP, which was the junior coalition partner to Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives from 2009 to 2013, at 5 to 7 percent.

.. just sayin ...

westernpromise

The small problem here is that Greece wants to stay in the euro and the EU and Germany and the EU also want Greece to stay in the euro and the EU. There is nobody involved in the matter who wants any other outcome.

cogito

westernpromise wrote: »

The small problem here is that Greece wants to stay in the euro and the EU and Germany and the EU also want Greece to stay in the euro and the EU. There is nobody involved in the matter who wants any other outcome.

The German finance minister, Schauble, wanted the Greeks to leave the euro a couple of years ago for a five year minimum (meaning forever) when the crisis last reared it's ugly head. His views carry a lot of weight in Germany but he's not an EU appointee so his views were disregarded. Greece needs a debt write off and most people including the IMF agree that that is essential to get Greece on the path to recovery but it's politically impossible for the German's to commit to that so Greece must continue to suffer.

Sentiment towards the euro is waning here in Greece and it will probably blow up again in the summer because Greece has to make a €10bn debt repayment in July and it doesn't have the money. It should have because theoretically it is running a budget surplus but as usual, the figures are being fudged as they are taking in the tax revenues (well, some of them) but not paying their suppliers.

The SYRIZA government is hanging on by a thread and if an election were to be held now, Nea Dimokratia would win. It's likely that SYRIZA will call an election soon anyway so that it doesn't have to deal with the debt issue. There's a neat irony there as that's exactlly what Nea Dimokratia did a couple of years ago handing SYRIZA a victory that they didn't want.

vivatifosi

I'm interested to hear that the likelihood is an ND win cogito. I did wonder whether a different fringe party would gain political traction as opposed to one of the main parties. Do you think that Greeks now feel they've tried the more extreme parties and they don't work either, so time to return to politics as usual?

I have friends in the US and they feel that if Trump doesn't make a good go of things, it will be back to politics as normal for a few decades. So similar scenario (though the economics look better for the US).

cogito

The latest opinion polls have ND between 11 and 18 points ahead of SYRIZA. As the party winning most seats gets an extra 50 under the Greek constitution, ND would have a clear majority. No other party has more than 10 points in the polls.

As far as the Greeks are concerned, SYRIZA has behaved like any other political party with rife cronyism and nepotism despite their promises to be different. Politics as usual in Greece unfortunately just means more of the same kleptocracy. Little wonder that the Greeks try to avoid paying taxes as the money doesn't end up where it's supposed to.