Greece...

worldtraveller

So, from what I understand, the Greek banks need between around €300m and €400m a day to cover outflows. Allegedly they have around €500m left. Therefore, we will surely see the inevitable further can kicking of more ELA from the ECB, either today or tomorrow. The farce continues!

Crashy_Time

worldtraveller wrote: »

So, from what I understand, the Greek banks need between around €300m and €400m a day to cover outflows. Allegedly they have around €500m left. Therefore, we will surely see the inevitable further can kicking of more ELA from the ECB, either today or tomorrow. The farce continues![/QUOTE]


Wouldn`t bet on it as this will weaken their hand with the next country that pops up to "restructure" it`s debts. My opinion now is that the EU robots will force Greece out and hope that their fate puts others off rocking the debt boat. If political and financial contagion spreads across the Eurozone it could be a trigger for house price falls in the UK as our economy weakens further.

Graham_Devon

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Wouldn`t bet on it as this will weaken their hand with the next country that pops up to "restructure" it`s debts. My opinion now is that the EU robots will force Greece out and hope that their fate puts others off rocking the debt boat. If political and financial contagion spreads across the Eurozone it could be a trigger for house price falls in the UK as our economy weakens further.

Not sure about that - all this doesn't even seem to upset the FTSE. Infact it brings hope for more stimulus!

There was someone on the radio earlier talking about the "absurd" markets at the moment. Turmoil simply brings hope for stimulus. The markets seem to have lost their grounding and are no longer linked to fundamentals. (not my words). Good news is good news. Bad news brings hope that the emergency levels of stimulus will continue or be ramped up. In other words, everything is positive.

Crashy_Time

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not sure about that - all this doesn't even seem to upset the FTSE. Infact it brings hope for more stimulus!

There was someone on the radio earlier talking about the "absurd" markets at the moment. Turmoil simply brings hope for stimulus. The markets seem to have lost their grounding and are no longer linked to fundamentals. (not my words). Good news is good news. Bad news brings hope that the emergency levels of stimulus will continue or be ramped up. In other words, everything is positive.[/QUOTE]


Until it isn`t. FTSE was above 7000 not so long ago, so the last sugar rush of stimulus has obviously petered out while the political situation in Europe deteriorates (or gets better, depending on your POV) daily. I`m pretty sure the German authorities don`t share that speakers upbeat (delusional?) view. If Greece defaults and exits for it`s own currency there will be turmoil that QE and other nonsense won`t fix. IMO.

remorseless

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Until it isn`t. FTSE was above 7000 not so long ago, so the last sugar rush of stimulus has obviously petered out while the political situation in Europe deteriorates (or gets better, depending on your POV) daily.

or maybe after all this time, people have stopped to pay attention to it?

Froggitt

Any future loans to Greece should be asset backed e.g. for a £2 billion loan, they put up Crete as collateral.

michaels

Why did it take a socialist (not social democrat) govt to stand up and say that the emperor had no clothes on? Any mainstream govt would have happily signed up to pretend and extend again.

Interesting that the system dynamic was that pretend and extend appeared to be in the interest of all parties, apparently it was in no one's best interest to admit that there would need to be write-offs.

antrobus

The Greek vote is turning out to be much ado about nothing for the euro....“The market reaction so far has been remarkably muted,”....“Longer term, it will have no impact on the financial markets,”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/greek-vote-becoming-much-ado-about-nothing-special-for-euro

Shares fell, the euro stumbled and yields on weaker euro zone economies' bonds rose after Greece overwhelmingly voted against conditions for a rescue package, but there was no rout and contagion was limited.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/06/us-markets-global-idUKKCN0PF16920150706

No sign yet of the End Of The World, which is disappointing.

Graham_Devon

Merkel has now stated that the conditions are not there to negotiate with Greece about any new bailout program.

Instead, she says "the door remains open". Basically interpreted as "should Greece fall in line with our expectations".

She goes on to say that solidarity requires countries to take responsibility.

However, not sure Merkel can do much now. It's a 3 party issue. Greece and the IMF want debt write downs.

Merkel disagrees and has put out a statement that a "debt cut is not an issue for us". In other words, it's not happening.

Seems Germany respect the referendum and respect the right for people to vote. However, it changes nothing from their POV.

Not sure how things move forward now. Germany now seem to be moving against both Greece and the IMF.

antrobus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

...However, not sure Merkel can do much now. It's a 3 party issue. Greece and the IMF want debt write downs. ....

3 party issue? Don't the other 17 Eurozone nations count?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

...Merkel disagrees and has put out a statement that a "debt cut is not an issue for us". In other words, it's not happening.

Interesting that you deleted your original statement "However, Merkel cannot get her bailout program through without the IMF (so it states). Not sure whether the IMF would bend to Germany or not."