Greece...

purch

ciaccino wrote: »

Hopefully a good old fashioned global currency collapse.

You have been promising that for years, but the problem you have is you don't understand the first thing about what it would mean.

Generali

Killerseven wrote: »

I wouldn't like to live there now, or anytime in foreseeable future.

But if they do default and leave the euro, it will be good place for holidays, the pound will buy a lot of drachmas.

But what will happen to all the losses that the banks have sold on and spread around the world?

The money is basically owed to the Troika: the EU, the ECB and the IMF. It hasn't been sold on and spread around the world. Quite the reverse in fact, it's been shifted from other investors and taken on by Government and quasi-Government bodies.

As of Q3 2014:

http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/01/MS_Greece_WhoHurts.pdf

- IMF held 10% of the Greek debt
- Private investors of one sort or another 17%
- Greek banking system - 3%
- ECB - 8%
- Euro-Area Governments plus EFSF - 62%

Slovenia and Malta take the biggest proportional hit at ~3% of GDP each.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Sure Greece the govt is broke...doesn't mean Greece the people don't have cash salted away.

More (a bit shallow but along the right lines) on game theory:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33254857

It's a good layman's piece on game theory and its possible application to the current crisis.

I'm not so sure about how they come to the numbers in the decision tree.

You know the expression pour encouragers les autres? Well perhaps if the Greeks having their metaphorical admiral shot keeps the others in line then the payoff to the Troika is > 1.

Mistermeaner

This will be scotland in a few years

Generali

ggb1979 wrote: »

This will be scotland in a few years

Only if they get FFA/Independence. Unless oil hits ~$200/bbl IIRC.

[Deleted User]

Germany suggests (demands?) a bail-in to keep Greece in the €zone:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/latest-german-expert-forecasts-money-111647494.html#GWtTT0Q

The head of a major German economic think-tank says the only way Greece could stay in the eurozone if Greeks reject reform conditions in a popular vote next week would be for creditors to agree to debt relief and Greek banks to be rescued without outside help — largely by customers forfeiting part of their deposits.

michaels

ciaccino wrote: »

Germany suggests (demands?) a bail-in to keep Greece in the €zone:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/latest-german-expert-forecasts-money-111647494.html#GWtTT0Q

Just the EU warming up for the Brexit referendum.

Generali

ciaccino wrote: »

Germany suggests (demands?) a bail-in to keep Greece in the €zone:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/latest-german-expert-forecasts-money-111647494.html#GWtTT0Q

I think if you re-read the article your opening line should read more like:

"Some German bloke says that unless the ECB provides further funding to the Greek Banking system then capital controls are inevitable. This has been the same almost every day for the past few days so nothing has changed: the ECB has agreed to extend the funding facility to Greece every time it has been requested and there is absolutely nothing to suggest a change of heart by the ECB. Despite nothing having changed, German Bloke thinks something has changed.

However as he is an Important Person, albeit as a Professor of Taxation and thus one unqualified to comment on central banking and the possible alternatives, you should all listen very carefully to what he has to say."

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Just the EU warming up for the Brexit referendum.

It's "Some German bloke" (©Generali) offering his opinion, and not the EU.

Generali wrote: »

...Some German bloke says that unless the ECB provides further funding to the Greek Banking system then capital controls are inevitable. ...

One can read what the German bloke in question actually had to say on the subject here. (Although I believe you have the gist of it.)

http://www.zew.de/en/news/3051/statement-of-professor-clemens-fuest-president-of-the-centre-for-european-economic-research-zew-on-the-greek-referendum

Generali

Interesting that they don't mention what he's a professor of in any of these pieces, that is of business taxation.