Solar PV Feed In Tariffs - Good or Bad?

Cardew

jamesingram wrote: »

Yes , but that doesn't make this statement untrue
'International price have dropped for various reasons, but the main driver for this is demand.
In the UK by creating confidence in a demand, it's allowed suppliers to buy in bulk , it's only by buying in bulk that these lower prices are available.'
therefore FITs has been the key driver here in the UK to reduced install cost by 50% in 2 years.
kick starting the UK PV market , which once self sustaining will lead to further reduction and hopefully a level in at which it become viable for the majority.
I still think its bizarre that you wont entertain this notion.

James,

Do you seriously believe that if the FIT scheme had been postponed in UK to, say April 2012 that prices would be as they were in April 2010.

Zeupater for the past 18 months has been posting regular updates of how prices in Germany and the rest of the world have been falling. Had UK installation prices not matched those in say, Germany, the European firms would have found a ready market in UK.

The same principle will apply in future. That is the 'key driver' and not UK demand.

However again, the question nobody has answered is if our political masters say we must generate solar electricity, why not solar farms and not tiny systems on roofs, paying huge subsidies and allowing people to keep as much of that generated electricity as they can use.

jamesingram

grahamc2003 wrote: »

Installers buying in bulk now would be paying half of the bulk price 2 years ago irrespective of how much solar is currently installed

Hi , Graham
I agree with you completely regarding the UK s ability to effect global markets.

But regarding our small UK market ,
Without the national demand created by FITs there would be no installers buying in bulk. So no access to bulk discounts.

Without UK FITs, yes international material prices would have fallen but due to low UK demand and little installer competion I very much doubt prices would have fallen anywhere near to the extent they have.
Access to these cheaper materials would still be differcult
there would be very little 'market forces' driven price reductions

FITs is the main driver here in the UK market to local price reduction , come on, you know that as well as I do
Though I agree there would have still been some price reductions without it.

Hi Cardew ,
Without FITs why would european installers have come to the Uk, as there would be little demand for PV here ? I dont beleive the existing installers would have need to be too concerned by competion from over the channel and therefore free to charge whatever the niche market could bear.

Re. solar farm/ mircogeneration , several posters have offered possible benefits of mircogeneration over large scale installs
and economic arguments suggesting the quantities of scale savings
might not be as clear cut as they may seem at first glance.

Fine if you dont agree with them , but they have been offered:)

Cardew

jamesingram wrote: »

Hi Cardew ,
Without FITs why would european installers have come to the Uk, as there would be little demand for PV here ? I dont beleive the existing installers would have need to be too concerned by competion from over the channel and therefore free to charge whatever the niche market could bear.

Re. solar farm/ mircogeneration , several posters have offered possible benefits of mircogeneration over large scale installs
and economic arguments suggesting the quantities of scale savings
might not be as clear cut as they may seem at first glance.

Did you miss I said:

if the FIT scheme had been postponed in UK to, say April 2012 that prices would be as they were in April 2010.

I am saying that prices would have dropped in line with those on the continent; and that the 'key driver' is nothing to do with UK demand.

I only added the further point that if UK installers had not matched the, say, cheaper German prices then EU firms would have moved in on the UK.

Do you think the arguments against solar farms and in favour of roofs(with the occupants free to export only what they can't use) have any validity?

jamesingram

Yes , I did miss that . It's a fair point.
With the advantage of hinesight waiting to start FITs til now would have been benifical to the UK consumer/subsidy funder . Thats part of the risk involved in investment/subsidys.

re. solar farm , yes I do believe mircogeneration offers some potential advantages over large scale installs ,
though these are far harder to quantify in terms of £/kW capacity or £/kW produced.

Mid size ,at or local to point of use , installs ; factorys / schools / hospitals / public buildings would also offer some of these advantages with improved quantities of scale savings

cheers

Martyn1981

jamesingram wrote: »

Yes , I did miss that . It's a fair point.
With the advantage of hinesight waiting to start FITs til now would have been benifical to the UK consumer/subsidy funder . Thats part of the risk involved in investment/subsidys.

re. solar farm , yes I do believe mircogeneration offers some potential advantages over large scale installs ,
though these are far harder to quantify in terms of £/kW capacity or £/kW produced.

Mid size ,at or local to point of use , installs ; factorys / schools / hospitals / public buildings would also offer some of these advantages with improved quantities of scale savings

cheers

I believe that it's those mid size installs that can / should be doing the heavy lifting for PV in the UK for the next couple of years. With larger economies of scale, and potentially 100% consumption of generation, a 20 to 40kWp system should be borderline financially viable this year (without subsidies), though the location and orientation would need to be good.

If the govt manages to keep domestic installs low, via tighter FITs management and issues like the EPC C rating, then commercial / industrial installs could be used to keep up the 'shipping' demand for panels in the UK, and keep the installers busy.

Regarding the UK's entry point into PV and FITs, yep, had we entered later we would have benefited from lower prices, however, if all countries had taken the same view, then little progress would have been made, as only a few solar rich countries would have been left to pump up the panel pressure. Sadly time is against the UK (and elsewhere) as we are chasing 2020 targets.

Mart.

Oopsadaisy

The ASA has ruled that the usual solar advertising cr4p of £15% ROI etc is just that.......cr4p.

http://www.asa.org.uk/ASA-action/Adjudications/2012/2/Ice-Energy-Heat-Pumps-Ltd/SHP_ADJ_163951.aspx

So in summary...solar salespitch is a scam.

SallyKing

Oopsadaisy wrote: »

The ASA has ruled that the usual solar advertising cr4p of £15% ROI etc is just that.......cr4p.

http://www.asa.org.uk/ASA-action/Adjudications/2012/2/Ice-Energy-Heat-Pumps-Ltd/SHP_ADJ_163951.aspx

So in summary...solar salespitch is a scam.

Exactly what I said before, the returns are very misleading. Interesting link, here are a few key points:

"based on an optimum panel configuration, it would take nine years before the cost of the panels was recovered and the FiT started to confer an overall gain."

"gave the misleading impression that the financial gains to be had from the product were more immediate than they actually were because the cost of the solar panels would have to be recouped before the FiT could convey any financial gains."

grahamc2003

Oopsadaisy wrote: »

The ASA has ruled that the usual solar advertising cr4p of £15% ROI etc is just that.......cr4p.

http://www.asa.org.uk/ASA-action/Adjudications/2012/2/Ice-Energy-Heat-Pumps-Ltd/SHP_ADJ_163951.aspx

So in summary...solar salespitch is a scam.

Yes, the pitch is a scam. Anything comparing thre returnms with a bank account where the capital is protected is misplaced, yet it is an extremely widespread misconception.

But readers of these forums shouldn't compare the returns like that - it must be two years ago since I corrected a poster doing that, and said a better comparison would be with annuity returns - and even then the comparison isn't exact since annuities last until the purchaser does, and don't stop after 25 years.

But just because the sales pitch is a scam (and the worst and frequent scams are much worse than the bank account comparison!) doesn't mean it isn't a good investment currently, at the 43p fit (if that turns out to be the case). But even then, its only good if you have 7 or 8 grand which you don't have a better use for, and (and this is crucial) you won't need ever again. of course (and this will make people yawn i expect) what is good for the panel owner certainly isn't good for everyone else who pays that return.

The scam I had just a couple of weeks ago with a solar pitch was that even today, salesmen insist I would cut my electricity bills by £380pa, supposedly calculated on the official mcs worksheet(!), which the salesman wouldn't allow me to keep when I didn't leave a deposit, nor let me copy down the figures. I'm afraid the industry hasn't been cleaned up from double-glazing like sales tactics.

I had another quote a few days ago (this time form a local company), who estimated my electricity savings at £125, and had a very knowledable salesman - who didn't even have me a contract to sign on the day even if I wanted -, and the company owner was perfectly honest about everything as far as I could tell, and the electrician explained fully all the questions I had. So my experience is 3 quotes from national companies, all expensive for the time, all medium sales pressure with lots of crap, and one local, no pressure whatsoever, no crap, and a low price.

don0301

grahamc2003 wrote: »

Yes, the pitch is a scam. Anything comparing thre returnms with a bank account where the capital is protected is misplaced, yet it is an extremely widespread misconception.

But readers of these forums shouldn't compare the returns like that - it must be two years ago since I corrected a poster doing that, and said a better comparison would be with annuity returns - and even then the comparison isn't exact since annuities last until the purchaser does, and don't stop after 25 years.

But just because the sales pitch is a scam (and the worst and frequent scams are much worse than the bank account comparison!) doesn't mean it isn't a good investment currently, at the 43p fit (if that turns out to be the case). But even then, its only good if you have 7 or 8 grand which you don't have a better use for, and (and this is crucial) you won't need ever again. of course (and this will make people yawn i expect) what is good for the panel owner certainly isn't good for everyone else who pays that return.

The scam I had just a couple of weeks ago with a solar pitch was that even today, salesmen insist I would cut my electricity bills by £380pa, supposedly calculated on the official mcs worksheet(!), which the salesman wouldn't allow me to keep when I didn't leave a deposit, nor let me copy down the figures. I'm afraid the industry hasn't been cleaned up from double-glazing like sales tactics.

I had another quote a few days ago (this time form a local company), who estimated my electricity savings at £125, and had a very knowledable salesman - who didn't even have me a contract to sign on the day even if I wanted -, and the company owner was perfectly honest about everything as far as I could tell, and the electrician explained fully all the questions I had. So my experience is 3 quotes from national companies, all expensive for the time, all medium sales pressure with lots of crap, and one local, no pressure whatsoever, no crap, and a low price.

why are you getting all these quotes for solar panels?

don0301

I'm forecasting a return on capital in my first year of 17.29%

time will tell.......