Ad9898's 2022 prediction thread :D

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AD9898 wrote: »

I want to be optimistic,.

Then read this, and calm down dear.;)

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49957759&postcount=10

Bullfighter

I'm betting on a crashtastic year for the global financial corporations.

2010-2011 Share Performance:


BofA: -60.38%
Citi: -44.76%
Goldman Sachs: -46.41%
JPMorgan: -23.03%
Morgan Stanley: -45.24%
RBS: -50%
Barclays: -34.32%
Lloyds: -63.02%
UBS: -29.33%
Deutsche Bank: -28.55%
Credit Agricole: -56.04%
BNP Paribas: -37.67%
Societe Generale: -59.57%

Generali

AD9898 wrote: »

Indeed I've heard this before... it's not happening though. Building this alone in that kind of environment would be a huge challenge, then building the infrastucture would be a task that would take literally decades and lets not forget the political implications for the countries involved.

Even that doesn't solve the problem that over 92% of the world's transportation systems require cheap oil.

It's also possible to say that they require oil.

There is plenty of gas in the ground (which getting out may or may not poison groundwater) and in Sydney most buses and taxis are already powered with gas.

Now admittedly, this is just buying time. However, it's important to remember that oil (and gas and uranium) won't just suddenly stop being there. They will become more expensive.

As that happens people's habits will change. Gone will be the 2 weeks in Spain on a cheap flight. A lot less oil will be used and a lot more energy will be put into alternatives as it will be very profitable to find them. Who knows, perhaps even more profitable than investment banking!

It is quite possible that you're right and the End of Cheap Oil will mean The End of Civilisation but it aint necessarily so. There are lots of ways of getting more energy and using less that have barely been tapped.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

There is plenty of gas in the ground (which getting out may or may not poison groundwater) and in Sydney most buses and taxis are already powered with gas.

Quite.

People that panic about peak oil for mass transportation always forget that there are many decades more worth of proven gas reserves than there are for oil, the technology to run cars on it already exists, is cheap to retrofit to existing vehicles, and a network of filling stations is in place.

If I had to bet on it, I'd say 20 years from now the majority of city drivers will use electric cars worldwide, and the majority of long distance drivers will use LPG powered cars or LPG/Biodiesel/Ethanol/Petroleum/Electric hybrids, (depending on which country you're in).

Hydrogen fuel cells are probably not the answer for the first generation of post-petrol mass transportation, but may well be for the one after.

RUN_RABBIT_RUN

a lot of cars and lorries will run on vegetable oil without any modification

i would guess that current worldwide production of oil eclipses the production of vegetable oil but it's one of a number of alternatives