Ad9898's 2022 prediction thread :D

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

treliac wrote: »

That's absolutely fantastic..... and a grand total of oh about 1% of the population will be able to buy.

We're nowhere near the limits of affordability for housing.

In 1990 the percentage of disposable income spent on mortgages peaked at 68%. It's more like 27% today.

michaels

Are you sure enviromental change won.t result in catetrophic food shortages, internal strife, mass migrations and wars? How about disease pandemic or nuclear accidents, possibly terrorist caused?

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We're nowhere near the limits of affordability for housing.

In 1990 the percentage of disposable income spent on mortgages peaked at 68%. It's more like 27% today.

Ahh Hamish, you lovable little scamp. Comparing the percentage of income required to service a mortgage between a point in time where the base rate was 14% and now when it's 0.5% doesn't really give the full picture does it? There's lots of other factors which allow you to look at whether houses are 'affordable'.

pararct

Oil to become more scarce and in a shorter time frame than most people can currently foresee.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8797

Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency.

Olivier Rech developed petroleum scenarios for the International Energy Agency over a three year period, up until 2009. This French economist now advises large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian assets management firm.
His forecasts for future petroleum production are now much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA. He expects stronger tensions as of 2013, and an inevitable overall decline of oil production "somewhere between 2015 and 2020", in the following interview.

treliac

Not so long to work out the alternatives then.

tomterm8

I think the three area of technology to watch are genetic engineering, medical technology and materials technology. In my opinion, we are right at the start of a new Industrial Revolution in materials technology, the results of which will not be clear until after most of us are dead.

julieq

Get rid of Scotland and FRACK the living bejesus out of the north west I reckon under a permanent Tory government, enslave anyone not killed by methane in the water supply as either manufacturing drones or DJing youth radio. Happy days for the South East.

Generali

tomterm8 wrote: »

I think the three area of technology to watch are genetic engineering, medical technology and materials technology. In my opinion, we are right at the start of a new Industrial Revolution in materials technology, the results of which will not be clear until after most of us are dead.

I believe that the majority of girls in my son's class at school will see their hundredth birthday. Quite a few of the boys too.

Genetics in particular is moving at a tremendous pace. The Human Genome Project (AIUI and I am not an expert) cost $3,000,000,000 and took 13 years to map 4 people's genes. Just 8 years later it costs a few grand and takes a couple of weeks.

As for oil, as it becomes more scarce it will become more expensive so people will consume less of it by force or by choice. They will cycle or live closer to work. They will grow some of their own food. Leisure and consumption will become more 'virtual' as it takes a tiny amount of extra input to make 'more Internet' for example.

There is a huge amount of physical consumption that is not just unnecessary but really does not add much to the happiness of the owner. I'm thinking of plastic toys that kids get in vast quantities today as an example.

Wookster

Generali wrote: »

There is a huge amount of physical consumption that is not just unnecessary but really does not add much to the happiness of the owner. I'm thinking of plastic toys that kids get in vast quantities today as an example.

What I do predict is an environmental/ resource credit crunch within the next 10 years.

treliac

Generali wrote: »

I believe that the majority of girls in my son's class at school will see their hundredth birthday. Quite a few of the boys too.

Not unless they look after their health better than so many young people in the UK do.